2:12 – Stimulating Song 11/1 EW

4:32 – The Bay Birch 5/1

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Stimulating Song

This is one of those races where I was very keen to find an E/W angle, given that I don’t think it’s a strong race.

Friend or Foe is sure to be popular given his lightly raced profile and how successful Paul Nicholls was on Friday, but he’s well found in the market. It is worth noting that he was in training all of last season but didn’t run due to the ground so the long absence isn’t a concern.

Stimulating Song is a horse I’ve always thought a lot of. He clearly has ability, but he was very keen in his races throughout most of last year and wore a hood in 7 of his 8 starts.

Still, he kept good company all season once switched to hurdles. He made his debut over obstacles in an introductory hurdle that has worked out very well. He finished 4th that day, behind Marie’s Rock (1st, looks a top class mare), The Con Man (2nd, rated 138) and Ebony Jewel (3rd, rated 126)

He then finished 6th at Newbury in a good novice hurdle (Mister Coffey won) before comfortably beating the 124 rated Adicci at Wetherby.

The only time he didn’t run a solid race was in the EBF Final, where I think he was over the top having already run 7 times that season.

His reappearance at Ffos Las was encouraging. For all that he was brushed aside by Milkwood, he ran with credit against two good rivals and I think he’ll come on a lot for that run.

It’s also interesting to note that Sam Twiston-Davies, who rode him for the first time LTO, retains the ride.

If you look on the Racing Post app, the fact that Milton Harris is 0-17 in the last 2 weeks might put you off, but his jumpers this month have form figures of: 35235, although that last 5 was a 5th of 5.

Furthermore, Milton Harris has a 19% S/R in handicap hurdles at Chepstow (16 runners, 3 wins & 4 placed, A/E 2.36)

Only a 5yo, Stimulating Song looked more professional on his recent outing and it’s likely that he’ll have matured over the summer. I’m of the opinion that 2 miles on a relatively stiff, left handed track like Chepstow is ideal for him and the test that a handicap presents should bring about the best in him.

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4:32 – The Bay Birch

It’s not too difficult to make a convincing case for this mare.

Having won this race last year from a mark of 145 (8lb higher than she is today), she struggled for consistency last term but she still ran some good races in tough fields, including an 8th place finish in the Grand Annual.

She made an extremely encouraging reappearance at Warwick 19 days ago; weak in the market (9/2 out to 9/1), she travelled powerfully throughout and coasted in the lead on the approach to 4 out. She was going best of all as they turned for home (traded at 1.26 in running) but she looked to tire late on, fading into 3rd. Perhaps her weakness in the market was a result of her not being fully wounded up for this and with the benefit of hindsight, that could’ve been a prep run for this race at Chepstow.

The handicapper has even dropped her 1lb for that effort, which surprises me. That day, she was running against some race fit and inform rivals while the front two have run well again since.

Matt Shepherd doesn’t have too many runners but he had a nice winner at Ffos Las on Thursday and he has a great record at Chepstow. In handicap chases, he has an 18% S/R (improved to 21% when only looking at runners ridden by Stan Shepard) for an A/E value of 1.41.

Despite her rising age, she looked in great form last time out and everything looks set for a big run.

1:15 – Do Your Job 4/1

I remember being extremely impressed by this one in the paddock at Uttoxeter when he made his rules debut for Claire Dyson; you could certainly see why he cost his owners £150,000 after winning his point to point.

He was very weak in the market that day, going off at 10/1 having been readily available at 4s earlier on. However, he ran a great race from the front in what were gruelling conditions. He travelled and jumped well and still looked to he going well as the field turned for home. He faded on the extended run in, looking in need of the run as the market suggested. Still, he shaped very encouragingly, far better than the 5th of 7 (beaten 21 lengths would suggest)

The form of that run looks good now. Do Your Job pulled clear with St Barts (1st, now rated 125 and looks a nice type who relishes heavy ground) and Ubetya (2nd, won NTO and 4th in a grade 2 subsequently)

He was moved to Michael Scudamore’s yard following that run, and he finished a good 2nd at Newbury on his debut for his new stable. Again, he caught the eye with the way he travelled through the race and having been in midfield during the early stages, he jumped his way into the leading group with ease. He traded at 1.72 in running as they jumped the 2nd last. However, it once again appeared as if 2m4f on testing ground stretched his stamina at this early stage of his career (the omission of the last flight further emphasised the need for stamina)

The winner looks a very useful prospect while there were some nice types behind.

2 miles on testing ground around a galloping track looks to be ideal for him, and I expect this test to suit him more than some of his rivals. Truckers Pass in undoubtedly a talented horse with some smart bumper form to his name, but I think he’ll want quicker ground than this.

2:19 – Eau Top 9/2

Having run with credit on all three starts last term, he struck me as a horse who would improve next season. In fact, Ben Pauling has stated in the past that he thinks Eau Top is a “nice horse” and that “I’ve been in no rush with him”

Having drifted from 14/1 to 50/1 on hurdles debut, he shaped nicely to finish 4th in testing conditions at Hereford in December. I don’t think he really appreciated the deep ground that day; his sire, Barastraight, has only had a couple of jump winners in recent seasons but the most notable of them is Easy Game – a Grade 2 winning hurdler/chaser (Grade 1 placed) for Willie Mullins who is best on good ground.

It’s also worth noting that the stable were going through a very rough time when Eau Top made his reappearance. They’d only just begun to have runners again after a faulty batch of hay meant they had no runners from the 7th November till the 3rd December. In the two weeks after resuming, they only had 1 winner and 1 place from 21 runners (3rd Dec – 17th Dec, Eau Top ran on the 14th Dec)

Following that effort, he was extremely well backed for a novice hurdle at Ludlow (14/1 into 4/1). He travelled powerfully throughout and held every chance as they turned for home before fading on the approach to the last. Again, the ground might have been a factor in him tiring.

Either way, that race as worked out well. Allart (1st) won NTO before finishing 5th in the Supreme, Java Point (2nd) kept good company all season and looks a winner in waiting (and he’s one of my 20 HTF), Hunting Percival (3rd) won NTO and Prussia With Love (5th, 8 lengths behind Eau Top) bolted up in a handicap off 102 NTO.

His most recent outing came in a competitive handicap (handicap debut) at Newbury, again in testing conditions. Having been held up in rear throughout, he made nice headway as the field turned for home. He latched on to the leading group as they jumped 2 out, but again he tied on the nearly 3 furlong run to the line after the last in heavy ground, eventually finishing 6th.

That race has worked out very well: the 2nd and 4th won NTO, the 7th and 8th both placed on their next (and only run) since while the 9th and 10th have both won since.

Furthermore, he looked a far more settled horse on his most recent start. He had been very keen in previous starts and his jumping had been sloppy, but he put in a much more professional performance at Newbury which bodes well for this season.

Ben Pauling makes the 8 hour round trip to Sedgefield with 2 runners; Eau Top looks to have the better chance of the pair. Tom Bellamy rides both. The yard have been operating at a 20% strike race since the restart, with an A/E of 1.26 in handicap hurdles.

A mark of 107 looks workable and this is a weaker race than last time out. I think the better ground should suit and it would be disappointing if he can’t go close.

4:00 – Friends Don’t Ask 5/1

More than half of the runners in the field (6/11) are aged 10 or older, with a further 3 runners being 9-years-old.

While age isn’t necessarily in itself a barrier to victory, in this case we are dealing with a lot of well exposed (and out of form) veterans.

One that is far from exposed is the lightly raced 5-year-old, Friend’s Don’t Ask, who’s only had 2 starts over fences to date.

His trainer, Martin Smith, has said that he was always going to be a chaser so it was no surprise to see him switched to fences after just 4 starts over hurdles.

His debut over fences was an encouraging one, finishing 5th in a class 4 handicap at Southwell (3m). It very much looked like an education for FDA, who wasn’t ridden into many fences with Nick Scholfield lasking his mount to make his own mind up. He wandered around a bit on the approach to several obstacles but his jumping was good on the whole. Having looked outpaced, he stayed on well to finish 5th. The 4th won NTO while the, 3rd arrived in top form and the 2nd has placed twice since.

He showed the benefit of that experience LTO when finishing 3rd (albeit in a small field) at Fontwell (where he reposed Jen’s Boy, who finished 2nd at Southwell). He looked a tad uncomfortable around the tight bends of Fontwell but continually made up ground when they straightened up. He was on the tail of the leading duo on the final turn for home (traded at 2.14 in running (SP 15/2)) but looked a tad outpaced as they approached 3 out. Once again though, he stayed on nicely at the finish, looking to relish the uphill finish (which augurs well for his chances up the steep Sedgefield hill finish)

It’s also worth noting that he sustained a cut during that race, so we can mark that effort up. He has since been recovering from that wound, hence the 50 day absence.

Martin Smith takes just the one runner on the ~7 hour round trip to Sedgefield; his first ever runner at the track. When taking horses on a journey of 200+ miles, the trainer has a 25% strike rate (2 wins from 8, A/E 2.86, +20.83pts to a 1pt stake at BFSP)

Tom Scudamore, who has a 21% strike rate at the track, takes over in the saddle.

This represents a drop in class for FDA having competed against some decent rivals in class 4’s. As previously mentioned, this class 5 looks a weak affair and it looks an ideal opportunity for FDA to get his first win in this sphere. The extended 3m2f will suit and he won’t mind it if there’s any “soft” in the going description.

2:15 – Oscarsman 12/1 EW

I expect the market to be dominated by Carys’ Commodity and Tango Echo Charlie but i’m taking a chance on the lightly-raced 6-year-old, Oscarsman, in what is just his 2nd run in a handicap.

While he was pulled up on handicap debut, he dropped out rapidly that day at a fairly early stage of the race. That and the fact that we haven’t seen him since indicates to me that he had an issue that day so I’m happy to put a line through that run. That was a much more competitive race that today’s event (a class 3 on Boxing Day) and he wasn’t unfancied that day.

Also, he comes here having had wind surgery and he’s equipped with a tongue-tie for the first time so he might’ve had an issue with his wind.

Prior to that, he made all to win a soft ground maiden hurdle at Plumpton over 2m4f, displaying a good attitude to fend off the odds on favourite, Bean in Trouble. That rival has since won a handicap and is now rated 129.

That was certainly a career best performance but he had displayed promise on his hurdles debut when finishing 4th behind I K Brunel and Eden Du Houx. He reportedly hated the very heavy ground at Lingfield on his next start so I’m happy to look past that effort.

The deluge of rain in recent days have left the ground at Stratford to be described as Soft-heavy in places. However, the going stick read as 6.7 on Saturday and which no rain forecast over the 12 hours, it could ride closer to soft than heavy; ground which I think is ideal for the selection (having been withdrawn on account of the going when it became to quick in the past)

Suzy Smith has only had 7 runners since racing resumed, resulting in just 2 places. However, they were the only 2 runners to go off at a single figure price (15/2 & 6/1) with the rest going off at 20/1 and bigger.

Furthermore, the trainer has only had 13 runners at the track, resulting in 2 wins and 4 places (level stakes profit of 6.5pts to a 1pt stake). Oscarsman is the yards sole runner on the card and makes the 6 hour round trip.

Michael Nolan has a good record for this trainer over hurdles; they have 9 wins from 37 runners for an impressive 24% strike rate (A/E 2.54) Backing them blind to a £1 stake would’ve yielded a profit of £61.87

He tends to race prominently (which suits Stratford as it’s a sharp track) and I hope he’ll go from the front as he did when winning his maiden.

If fit and if adopting those tactics, I think he’ll go close.