3:29 – Distingo 20/1 EW (0.75pts total stake advised)

Storm Alex has drenched the UK meaning that the ground at Fontwell is now soft; and it’s only going to get more testing as the day goes on.

That won’t suit a few in this lineup but it shouldn’t inconvenience Distingo, who ran well in two very competitive handicaps last term in testing conditions.

He began last season with a solid 6th in a listed handicap at Sandown which has worked out quite well; the horses that finished around him that day were; Mack the Man (1st, looked set to go very close in the Betfair Hurdle on his next start), Protektorat (2nd, subsequent listed ‘winner’ and Grade 2 placed) and Song for Someone (3rd, subsequent Grade 2 winner), while Theo’s Charm (7th) and Ashutor (8th) would both win on their 2nd run after this race.

As is his style, he snuck into the race approaching 2 out having been held up but just failed to pick up the leading group. He ran off 132 that day – he’s now off just 124.

He ran a similar race on his penultimate start when 5th behind Mill Green, but he did trade at 2.2 in running that day before a last flight error ended his chance.

I’m willing to forgive his last run as his form tailed off similarly two seasons ago, where after 2 promising runs he failed to give his running. As such, he might be best when relatively fresh.

The trip is a bit of an unknown but I’ve always thought he lacked a gear for 2m so perhaps this slight step up in trip could help him.

Gary Moore’s record at Fontwell is well documented; Gary and Joshua combine for a 17% SR in handicap hurdles here (40% place, 1.14 A/E) for a BFSP profit of +56.34

The selection does come with risks attached and he hasn’t won for over 2 years, but he is capable of running a big race off this reduced mark. As such, I’m willing to take a chance on him in hope he can run as he has done on his last two seasonal reappearances. If he does, he shouldn’t be far away.

12:30 – Lord Baddesley 9/2

Following Es Perfecto’s win yesterday, the Kempton bumper in which LB was 5th, is starting to look like pretty strong form.

Like Es Perfecto, LB was held up in what was a steadily run affair, but he made nice headway when forced 4-wide round the bend. He initially looked tapped for a bit of pace, but he did begin to pickup but had his route continuously blocked off as he eventually finished 5th. If he were not forced wide and if he managed to get a gap, he probably would’ve been closer for all that he wouldn’t have won.

This run came after a hugely encouraging debut effort at Worcester, where he finished 2nd at 40/1. Held up in last, he made eye catching headway on the outside late on and traded at 1.1 in running without ever hitting the front.

There were many decent horses in behind him that day, including: Midnight River (3rd, went on to place behind Ask A Honey Bee and looks a nice prospect), Cadmar (4th, more fancied of the Gordon duo and won his next start), Israel Champ (6th, dual listed bumper winner), Papa Tango Charly (7th, 128 rated over hurdles and surely capable of better) and Benson (8th, won his next start in a bumper and shaped encouragingly over hurdles)

By Doyen out of a half sister to grade 2 winning juvenile hurdler, Tropical Lake, he’s a half brother to Tropical Three (bumper winner and 2m hurdle winner) and is closely related to Robins Reef (bumper winner and 2m hurdle winner + finished 4th behind Limini in the mares’ novices’ hurdle)

As such, his pedigree suggests that he’ll make a nice hurdler and while he looked like he’d appreciate going up in trip when sent hurdling, there’s some speed in his pedigree which hopefully means he’ll cope with 2m1.5f around Fontwell.

He was pulled out of a race at Newbury on account of the heavy ground, and he wouldn’t want too much rain here but I don’t think a bit of give will inconvenience him as much as it would some of the others in this line up.

Chris Gordon has only had 10 runners since July 1st (1 place) and most were beaten quite far, but he runs 8 at Fontwell today with plenty more on Saturday so this meeting looks to have been the early season target for many. As such, it’s hoped that LB is ready to do himself justice.

I was praying the early 6/1 with Bet365 would last as that would’ve been a cracking EW price. However, 9/2 is fair enough and I expect him to go close.

12:40 – Es Perfecto 4/1

A £190k purchase after bolting up in a point-to-point, Es Perfecto made an encouraging start to life under rules when 3rd in a competitive Kempton bumper.

Held up off the back of a slow early pace, the race developed into a bit of a sprint which would not have suited, nor did the stumble on the turn for home. Despite that, he still held every chance inside the final two furlongs as he burst through the centre (trading at a low of 2.62 in running), eventually finishing 3rd behind the impressive Hoi Polloi (1st) and Diamond River (2nd, won on his next start)

The step up in trip should certainly suit and he has an attractive profile, being by Shirocco out of an unraced dam who is a full sister to Corskeagh Royale (2008 champion bumper runner up), Shadow Elie (4th in the Mares Hurdle begins Quevega in 2013) and As You Like (137 rated chaser for Jonjo O’Neill)

Alan King has a good record at Warwick; he has a 29% S/R in maiden hurdles here (57% place & A/E 1.31)

He has a 24% S/R with runners debuting over hurdles here (48% place, A/E 1.32) so they’re often ready to give a good account of themselves first time out.

The stable had a nice novice winner with Wynn House the day before and hopefully that augurs well for the chances of Es Perfecto.

There are some interesting types in here, but I feel 4/1 represents a fair price and I thought he’d be closer to the market leader.

5:10 – Bogoss Du Perret 25/1 EW

A horse who’s had his fair share of issues since winning here over today’s distance (fences) but it was encouraging to see him run twice run within 48 days last season, even if the form figures are uninspiring.

However, it’s important to note that on both occasions he was running over an inadequate trip on ground that would’ve been far too testing for him; his only win to date under rules came over 3m2f on good ground and he’s a 3 time point-to-point winner on a sound surface. As such, 2m1f/2m3f on heavy was hardly going to see him to best effect and he did shape with some promise on his second start. In my mind, they were prepping him for a run in the spring/early summer before covid interrupted.

As such, the return to 3m2f on good ground at the track where he recorded is last win are all positives, as is the booking of Bryony Frost, who comes here for just one ride.

His win came off a mark of 89 and he’s now rated just 81 over hurdles. Some may see him running over the smaller obstacles as a negative but he’s rated 13lbs higher over fences so connections look to be trying to exploit this reduced mark.

Jimmy Frost wouldn’t boast the highest strike rate (~6% in total), but that figure improves markedly when looking solely at runners ridden by his daughter and over 3m+ trips; his strike rate improves to ~13% (46% place) with an A/E of 1.09.

A few of his opponents hold solid claims but these class 5 handicaps can often through up a surprise and it can pay to side with an outsider.

With just 9 runners lining up, he looks a fair EW proposition at a big price.

2:10 – Luckofthedraw 11/2

Long term followers of mine will remember Luckofthedraw winning this race for us last season at 18/1! Unfortunately, he hasn’t been missed in the market this time around but that was to be expected.

The reasons for backing him again today remain largely the same as last season. In fact, he made my “Handicappers to follow first time out” list which you can find here: https://overandclear.com/2020/08/12/2020-21-national-hunt-6-handicappers-to-follow-first-time-out/

He’s clearly a horse who’s at his best fresh. His 4 wins to date have come after breaks of 199 days, 58 days, 186 days and 155 days respectively. His form often tails off after his reappearance, but to his credit he did run fairly well in his two most recent outings. Regardless, his mark has now dropped to 130, just 1lb higher than when winning this race last season.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 25% S/R in handicap chases at Market Rasen (A/E 1.3); that improves to 29% (A/E 1.62) when you look just at handicap chases at Market Rasen in September, highlighting that NTD tends to excel in the early stages of the season.

2m5f would appear to be his optimal trip and he’s fairly versatile in terms of ground. The ground is currently “good” at Market Rasen but there is a chance of rain. If that materialises, the conditions will be very similar to last year (good, good to soft in places)

Now looks the time to catch him and with conditions looking close to ideal, a big run is expected.