Boxing Day 2021 Tips

1:00 Wetherby – Drumconnor Lad 4/1

2:10 Wetherby – Takingrisks 33/1 EW

3:20 Wetherby – Ballybreeze 4/1

1:42 Fontwell – Flaminger 9/2

2:35 Sedgefield – Oscars Leader 11/2

1:00 Wetherby – Drumconnor lad – 4/1 – 11yo but with soft ground looking more than likely, he’ll have conditions to suit here. Had a prep run over hurdles last year before winning over fences next time out; that win came off 139 and he runs off 137 here. Headgear also goes back on – was left off last time, just as it was on his first start last season. Sean Quinlan, who rode Twotwothree to win this last year, rides the selection instead.

2:10 Wetherby – Takingrisks – 33/1 EW – ran okay last time. Has popped up in big handicaps around this time in the last two seasons (won third time out last season). 1lb below his last winning mark, blinkers go on for the first time (won in first time cheekpieces in March 2019). Yes he’s a 12yo but he seems overpriced given there’s plenty of pace in the race which seems sure to make this a thorough test on ground we know the selection loves.

3:20 Wetherby – Ballybreeze – 4/1 – looked very promising in his point before falling late on. Hooded for bumper debut last year (trainer not known for success in that sphere). Promising hurdles debut in a deep race, not given a hard time. Ridden with plenty of patience at Cheltenham and aintree latest. Handicap debut, hood back on and tongue tie fitted. Hopefully he’ll be ridden positively like in his point.

1:42 Fontwell – Flaminger – 9/2 – Drifted last time but ran well for a long way before tiring, not knocked about. Won this race off 114 2 years ago, also won over C&D in October 2020 off 118. Down to 106 in first time cheekpieces.

2:35 Sedgefield – Oscars Leader – 11/2 – encouraging chase debut in a better race (winner won again since, runner up will be popular in the betting at market rasen today). The visor is back on which has resulted in form figures of: 1122235. Form figures of 12 at the track. Ran very well in some deep races last season from marks in the low 120s and finds himself here off a mark of 114 in a calmer waters. Brian Hughes booked.

27th November 2021 – Newcastle Tip

2:05 – Cool Mix 11/1 E/W

An open event but Cool Mix is taken to run well given his impressive course record.

Third in this race last year, he was a tad unlucky that day having been hampered midway which left him with an uphill task. He was also ridden with a degree of patience on his first start over three miles. With stamina now a guarantee, I expect him to ridden more prominently which should help his chances.

A winner on his second start last season, he shaped with a good deal of potential on his reappearance at Cheltenham, and I would not be at all surprised if this race has been his primary target given his great run in the race last year.

While he is not a blatantly well handicapped horse, I don’t think many in this race are necessarily massively ahead of their marks (Glen Forsa would be the exception, but he needs to back up his last run and that’s not certain to happen)

With that in mind, Cool Mix makes some appeal as a steady each way option.

26th November 2021 Tips

12:30 Doncaster – Barton Knoll 11/4

2:25 Newbury – Phoenix Way 10/3

Barton Knoll

A small field but a chance is taken on last years winner, Barton Knoll, who always needs his first run of the season and so I’m happy to put a line through his last run; that race contained the likes of Midnight Shadow and quite simply, Barton Knoll was outclassed and never had a chance after failing to get to the front.

After winning this race last year, he ran some creditable races in defeat in deeper company and get he now finds himself down to a mark of 125; three pounds lower than when winning this last season (it was a better race last year, too)

Doncaster is clearly a track that plays to his and this slick jumper could dictate this small field from the front. Two and a half miles on good ground are his ideal conditions and the booking of Sean Quinlan, who has ridden him for his two most recent victories, is a big positive.

His rivals have been quite busy and have a bit to prove and so I’m happy to take a chance on Barton Knoll who, in my view, should not be the outsider here.

Phoenix Way

I’ve never really warmed to Fanion D’estruval; he jumps very low, is always prone to make a race ending mistake and because he’s always an eye catcher, he’s often very short. For that reason, I’m happy to take him on.

Phoenix Way may have been hard to keep sound but he’s undoubtedly a talented horse and now might be the time to catch him given his great record when fresh.

The form of his chase debut has worked out quite well and he ran an very nice race in Grade 1 company last time out; that race looks decent form and he moved well for a long way that day under a patient ride – the way he travelled in that company suggests a mark of 144 shouldn’t be beyond him.

Harry Fry, as has been well documented, is in considerably better form than he was last season and he noted in a stable tour that “he’s probably best fresh and hopefully there’s a good prize in him this season”.

With conditions to suit, he looks to have a very good chance here against rivals who, for the most part, are more exposed.

Cheltenham 2022 – A 16/1 Bet and Two Handicappers to Note

During the depths of a Covid-ridden winter this time last year, I had an abundance of time to ponder about Cheltenham, with many an evening spent surveying the ante-post markets.

My circumstances are significantly different this year, but as I find myself on the train to Paris I thought I would make it a productive journey by taking my first significant deep dive into the festival betting.

Of course, I’m often thinking about horses with a view to March but this is the first notable chance I’ve had to jot down my musings without distraction.

Enough rambling – let’s make haste!

Tel me – how is she 16/1?

Back Telmesomethinggirl at 16/1 for the Mares’ Hurdle

Last year’s impressive Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner has been on my mind for this since the retirement of Black Tears and the news that Concertista will be sent over fences this season.

Having been a benefit race for Willie Mullins in previous seasons, with the first 5 renewals going the way of the Closutton trainer, Henry De Bromhead’s mare produced a terrific performance to win last years renewal, delivering a 1-2 for De Bromhead.

And while backing a Mullins horse for a mares race at Cheltenham has been standard procedure for years, he’s actually failed to win any of the last three renewals of the Mares’ Hurdle. While he’s still respected in this sphere, his grip isn’t as vice-like as it was and De Bromhead has proven to be a wonderful trainer of mares.

Back to Telmesomethinggirl; upon rewatching last years race, she appeared to relish the undulations and her finishing effort up the hill was particularly impressive. While the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and the Mares’ Hurdle are run on different tracks, she clearly relishes Cheltenham and that factor cannot be underplayed.

Her reappearance was a tad disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to forgive that run.

Firstly, she was giving away 10lbs to the majority of the field due to her Cheltenham success, which is no easy task.

And perhaps just as significantly, Henry De Bromhead has stated that “the Mares’ Hurdle is her ultimate aim” and that they are working backwards from March. According to reports, she looked quite big in the parade ring and so she is likely to come on significantly for her reappearance.

For her price to double for Cheltenham, in my opinion, is a severe overreaction and she is still the standout contender at this stage. Three who are shorter than her in the beating almost certainly won’t run here (Concertista, Epatante, Elimay) while another Mullins mare, Shewearsitwell, has been impressive but hasn’t been seen since October 2020.

For all that I can see, 16/1 is far too big and that price should be taken. For those that don’t have Bet365, Sky are 14/1 which is more than fair.

Handicappers To Note

Noble Yeats

Sent chasing after just one start over hurdles, he quickly justified that decision with a good win on his chasing debut.

The form of that win is working out well, with Gabynako (2nd) and Magic Daze (3rd) winning next time out.

His next two starts have been quite interesting – he’s been ridden with extreme patience, never threatening on either occasion but keeping on at the finish.

The decision to run him in a two-mile handicap last time out was particularly confusing as he definitely looks in need of further.

Given connections, it would not surprise me if there was a long-term plan here. It’s hard to say it Cheltenham is the goal but he certainly has a big race in him and I’ll be keeping a close eye on him this season.

Skybet are understandably cautious, and are only offering 10/1 for Noble Yeats to win any race at the festival.

No Ordinary Joe

He was the first horse I crossed off my list when assessing the Greatwood but I was extremely impressed by his effort.

Far too keen throughout, it seemed inevitable that he would fade out of contention once push turned to shove. And yet, as the field jumped the second last, No Ordinary Joe was seemingly going as well as anything and while he eventually gave way to West Cork and Adagio, this was a very promising run.

Considering this was his first run for six months and that his past two starts came against inferior opposition, to acquit himself as he did in such a competitive handicap bodes extremely well for his future prospects.

We know the Henderson/JP combination are to be feared in festival handicaps and in No Ordinary Joe, they could be dealing with a future graded level performer currently on a mark in the 130s. The potential has always been there and he was thought good enough to make his hurdling debut in a grade 2.

He could even win a handicap before turning up at Cheltenham. I’m very keen on this horse and I look forward to seeing how he is campaigned.

18th November 2021 – Market Rasen Tip

2:22 – Atlantic Storm 17/2

A race full of inconsistent types and those with plenty to prove. Two of the six reach for first time headgear while the favourite unseated last time out when seemingly going well, although I do struggle to have faith in that particular yard and that mishap was only seven days ago.

As such, I’m happy to take a chance on the summer stalwart, Atlantic Storm who almost certainly wouldn’t be here if the weather hasn’t been unseasonably dry.

His summer campaign was a solid one, winning once back in May from a mark of 109; that performance sandwiched a host of respectable efforts from similar marks. He runs here from a career low mark of 102 and while he is thoroughly exposed, he doesn’t yet have the profile of a rapidly regressive type and I’m surprised that the handicapper has dropped him eight pounds over his last two starts.

His penultimate run was at the end of a long summer campaign so perhaps he was in need of a rest, while his most recent effort came after a two month absence over a trip thats almost certainly too fair for him.

Back down to an appropriate trip, I think Market Rasen will suit given his hold up style and the very long home straight at the Lincolnshire track. He did actually run here for Dan Skelton back in 2018; off 119 that day, he should’ve won but he threw the race away having hit the front too early, hence why he needs to ridden with meticulous patience.

Rob Summers brings his stable star to Market Rasen for what is his first runner at the track since 2014. He looks to have found a very winnable opportunity in a weak affair. Charlie Hammond, who’s ridden him for the majority of his recent runs and has been on board for his past two wins, takes over from James Best.