4:50 – Generation Gap 6/1

Generation Gap wasn’t unfancied (12/1) for a more competitive race at Warwick on Monday (won by our selection, Outinpatrol) He was withdrawn on account of the ground but in reality I suspect that connections realised that they had an easier race to go for once the declarations came out.

A good ground point-to-point winner back in May 2018, he ran in some competitive novice hurdles in the 18/19 season, shaping with promise in a couple of starts at big prices but he very much looked a work on progress. As such, it was no surprise to see him put away for the season after 3 runs in 53 days.

He made a hugely encouraging reappearance at Chepstow, finishing 3rd behind two high class prospects: Silver Hallmark (1st) and McFabulous (2nd), the latter of whom won the EBF final and is now rated 145. Generation Gap travelled nicely and while he was never on terms with the leading duo, he stayed on nicely over the 2-mile trip in what was a slowly run race. The 4th-6th are now rated 120, 124 and 114 respectively, so it was a fair race.

Following that run, he was sent off a 5/1 for his handicap debut off a mark of 117 over an extended 2m3f. He travelled superbly throughout, trading at a low of 2.5 in running. However, he failed to find anything once asked for an effort but that’s likely down to the soft/heavy ground; he was ridden wide throughout in search of quicker ground and his action indicates that he’ll be better on a sound surface. His sire, Olden Times, is more known as a flat sire but his progeny tend to prefer a sound surface. His two must notable jumps offspring, Amilliontimes and Rocket Lad both support that point. Still, he shaped better than the bare result and the winner (Thomas Macdonagh) won again NTO on heavy ground.

He was well beaten on his most recent outing but once again the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited and neither would the drop in trip. As such, I’m happy to put a line through that.

The step back up in trip and the return to a sound surface are both significant positives and based on his first 2 runs of last season, a mark of 117 does not look beyond him.

The yard had hit a bit of a rough patch but bounced back with a couple of winners at Warwick on the 22nd. It looks like the stable have targeted this two day meeting at Perth; they’ve only had 11 runners at the track in 5 days but they’re due to 7 runners in the next 2 days.

3:15 – Outonpatrol (HTF) 12/1 EW (4 places with PP/Betfair)

One of my horses to follow for the season, Outonpatrol makes her handicap debut in a fairly competitive event but she is capable of making her presence felt.

A point to point winner, she has always been held in high regard but has taken some time to settle down; Alan King refereed to her as “a bit of a hot head” when she first arrived. Despite her attitude, she was sent off the 3/1 favourite for her rules debut in a bumper at Uttoxeter. However, she pulled Oakley Brown’s arms out for the majority of the race which eventually saw her fade into 7th, with stable mate Wynn House winning at 16/1.

She finished down the field on her hurdles debut, but Alan King reported that she “needed the outing quite badly”. With that in mind, she shaped fairly encouragingly behind some good rivals.

As such, it wasn’t a surprise to see her step forward on her next run, finishing 2nd to NTO winner Penny Mallow.

However, the standout run came LTO at Wincanton where she finished 4th in a race that is working out well. Kissesforkatie (1st) looked set to go very close in her next start until she fell at the 2nd last, while Lunar Baby (2nd) won a handicap off 116 on her next start and is now rated 122. Cill Anna won her next three starts (including a listed race) and is now rated 135, while Who’s The Boss (5th) went close in a couple of handicaps off 114. Even the 6th placed finisher, Prussia With Love, managed to boost the form despite being beaten by 15 lengths as she readily won a handicap off 102 in July.

On that evidence, an opening mark of 114 looks workable especially when you consider the scope she has for progression and I’m sure she’ll be more mature mare (both physically and mentally) for her absence.

We haven’t seen her since, but she was reportedly being aimed at a spring campaign before lockdown intervened so she should be ready for her reappearance on the back of a wind operation. This trip looks ideal and she seems quite versatile in terms of ground.

Alan King is 7/37 with mares making their handicap debuts (A/E 1.05), with a further 18 of those placing and it’s hoped that Outonpatrol can continue that fine record.

My one concern would be that she may need her first run as she did last season but I suspect she will be more forward this time around.

5:15 – Neville’s Cross 5/1

Novice handicap hurdles can be a tricky puzzle to solve, but Neville’s Cross has some solid form in the book and I suspect that he has more scope for improvement than most of his rivals.

Sent off a well supported 4/6 favourite on his sole point-to-point start, he looked to hold a leading chance until he slipped on the bend approaching 3 out. The winner of that race won his next start and the 2nd won his next two.

He bumped into an Irish raider with prior experience on his debut in a Hexham bumper before running over hurdles for the first time at Chepstow in November. Weak in the market, he showed up well for a long way before fading into 4th in attritional conditions. That was a fair race; the front two are now rated 125 & 132 respectively, while it’s also worth noting that the 6th & 7th are both now rated 122.

The selection improved on his next run when finishing 5th at Wetherby. Although the 5th of 7 finish does not leap off the page, he held a leading chance at the 2nd last until a bad blunder halted his momentum; Stan Sheppard gave him a lenient ride thereafter, never picking up his whip. The form of that race is solid in the context of today’s race; the front 4 are now rated: 125, 118, 122 and 115 respectively.

He performed a tad below market expectations on his most recent outing (3rd) but again its worth pointing out that the race has worked out well. The winner was an odds on favourite rated 125 going into the race (and he was allowed to dictate matters from the front), while the runner up again finished 2nd in another novice hurdle and is now rated 115. The 4th placed horse also won on her next start.

In his starts under rules to date, he’s appeared to lack the pace for 2 miles and his breeding suggests this step up in trip will suit; by Stowaway out of a full sister to Bahrain Storm (useful stayer on the flat, won over 2m7f over fences), he’s a half brother to a 2m5f winner and he looks a staying chaser in the making.

It’s also worth noting that all his starts under rules to date have come on softer ground than he’ll experience today. However, his point to point was run on good, Bahrain Storm went best on a sound surface (and the selections dam was kept mostly to good ground) and he’s a nice mover who should appreciate a sounder surface.

Tom Lacey and Jonathan Burke have been in great form since the restart. Their record when teaming up (since 1st July) is: 111114531P443; 6 wins and 2 places from 13 starts.

From a mark of 109, Neville’s Cross should be competitive upped in trip and he looks the type to improve now handicapping.

4:10 – Princeton Royale 50/1 E/W

While he was completely out of sorts last season, there are reasons to expect a return to form today.

A few weeks ago, Bryony Frost gave an interview post-race where she discussed the form of the Neil King yard. While I can’t recall her exact phrasing, she implied that there was a bug going around the yard last season and the horses are in much better form now. This could go someway to explaining the selections below par performances last term.

However, Neil King and Bryony Frost have been in flying form since the restart. Their record when pairing up since July 1st is: 5512422124121120353201; 6 wins and 8 places from 24 starts.

It’s also important to note that the selection was running on unsuitably soft ground last year; his record on soft/heavy is: 553F53224P6; the 2nd and 3rds came in field sizes of 5/6/7.

Conversely, his record on good or quicker is: 5511213013152P124128; 7 wins and 5 places from 20 starts.

Furthermore, he was not given his customary front running ride on his last two starts and he did not run in a visor (which he commonly wears) . While I can only hope that front running tactics are readopted here, it is pleasing to see the visor go back on; he’s won 6 times and placed a further 5 times from 17 starts when the visor is on, and it’s worth noting that he also won the last time it was refitted after running without it on his previous start.

His poor form has seen his mark drop from 142 to 135; his last win came off 137 and that also came off the back of a long break, so while the absence isn’t ideal in the face off some race-fit rivals, he is capable of going well fresh.

He’s done very well in class 3 company previously, winning 3 times and placing a further 5 times from just 12 starts. Also, the selection has won at this course before and he’s 2 from 3 at this intermediate trip.

This is Neil King and Bryony’s only runner/ride on the day and the trainer has a superb record in handicap chases here; 6 wins and 5 places from just 17 runners.

While he is 11yo now and he hasn’t shown much form for a year, there are plenty of reasons to expect a better performance today. At the price, he’s worth taking a chance on.

7:30 Sedgefield – Raemoir 40/1 EW (4 places)

Given how weak this race is, I was determined to find something that could go well at a big price.

Raemoir is more lightly raced than most of these and I believe he’s capable of running a big race at a huge price.

He ran quite well on his debut in a Newcastle bumper, eventually finishing 8th but he did show up well for fairly long way and wasn’t beaten all that far at the finish behind some useful types.

It’s been a mixed bag thus far over hurdles, but he did run fairly well in two novice hurdles at Kelso; both contained some well above average types. He finished 9th behind Cheddleton and Jabbaar on his 3rd start over hurdles, where his jumping was quite novicey but it’s his next run that stands out to me.

Sent off a 200/1 shot, he tracked the leading pair (125 rated Black Pirate and 126 rated Ebony Jewel) for much of the race, and he was the only one capable of keeping up with them as they turned for home. He was well beaten into 3rd in the end, but he shaped far better than most and the horses in behind him only managed to close on him as he actually attempted to go with the leading duo.

His jumping was much better and that performance indicated that a weak race like this should be within his reach. Doyen Breed (4th, rated 108), Artic Mann (5th, rated 95) and Six One Nine (6th, rated 108) finished behind him that day.

He disappointed on handicap debut on his most recent start but that was a class 4 and he’s been dropped 4lbs for that run. It’s also worth noting that it was his 6th run in 96 days, most of which were on heavy ground so it might’ve been one race too many.

Mike Smith has only sent 9 to Sedgefield in the last 5 years but he sends just the one on the 7 hour round trip here and the booking of top conditional, Blair Campbell, has to be a positive; he’s ridden 3 winners from 14 rides at this track.

As a lightly raced 5 year old, he rates as one of the more interesting contenders given that he looked to progressing over hurdles before his most recent start. He’s primarily been racing on very soft ground but his action and his breeding suggest that he should act on this quicker ground.

Joie De Vivre is the most likely winner and I expect him to start at a relatively short price. Phil Kirby and Micky Hammond both run two but they’re out of form while many of the others are running for the first time for their new yards, but the stable changes do not appear to be a positive move.