2nd September – Hexham and Uttoxeter Tips

12:40 Uttoxeter – Smiths Cross 7/2

Normally I would be concerned by a chaser switching to hurdles for their seasonal reappearance, but the selection has gone well fresh in the past and crucially, a victory here should not impact his handicap mark.

A point-to-point and a bumper winner (at Uttoxeter), Smiths Cross made his hurdles debut back in November 2018 at Ffos Las after a 210 day break. He finished 2nd that day behind the heavy ground specialist, Remastered, who has proven to be a solid 130+ rated handicapper. More impressively, Smiths Cross had Good Boy Bobby two lengths behind him that day; that rival won both his subsequent starts over hurdles and he is now rated 146 over fences. It is worth noting that Apres De Leluge finished ahead of Remastered on his next run but he clearly performed way below expectations that day and gave APL weight.

He finished 2nd on his next start behind Secret Reprieve, who is a useful type, with the very promising Dominateur back in 3rd; that rival is now rated 141 over fences.

He disappointed on his final start over hurdles before switching to fences in October 2019, finishing a close 3rd in a novice handicap chase off 127. King of May (1st) has won subsequently, Esprit Du Large (2nd) went on to win the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase while they 4th, 6th and 7th have all won subsequently. This was another promising effort after a break which bodes well for today.

His form tailed off thereafter but he’s had wind surgery since then so they may have identified the problem. If that has worked, he could be hard to stop here in receipt of weight from Apres Le Deluge and Balagan. Smiths Cross has been racing against a higher caliber of opposition and I value true NH season form over form from the summer period.

Any rain would not hurt his chances as he’s proven to be effective on all types of ground.

Apres Des Leluge is the clear danger given his impressive win last time on stable debut, having shown some useful form behind some good horses for Hughie Morrison. However, he has to give the collection weight and Fergal O’Brien normally has his horses fully geared up for their first runs so I’m not sure if he’ll improve much for that run.

7:30 – Missthecuddles 8/1 EW

Missthecuddles makes her handicap debut here after running in novice company three times within 27 days. While she didn’t trouble the judge, she did show some promise which suggested that a race of this nature shouldn’t be beyond her.

She received an educational ride on her debut having looked a tad green in the opening stages. She was ridden along in the early stages after a slow leap, but she got the hang of things late on and stayed on at the finish under a considerate ride, eventually finishing 8th.

She improved to finish 4th on her next start where again she was pushed along in rear but kept finding for pressure, staying on strongly under Tom Bellamy.

Having looked a thorough stayer on her first two starts over 2m4f, connections dropped her back to two miles for her most recent outing. Unsurprisingly, she was outpaced as the field quickened but I’m of the opinion that she was dropped in trip in an attempt to receive a more lenient handicap mark.

Everything about her runs thus far and her pedigree suggest she’ll relish the step up in trip; she’s closely related to the 130+ rated staying chaser, According for Trev and she’s a half sister to Skipthecuddles; a 130+ rated staying chaser who is also trained by Graeme McPherson.

The trainer sends just the one on the 9-hour round trip to Hexham. He’s only had 12 runners at the track in the last 5 years, resulting in 3 wins and 2 places.

Tom Bellamy, who rode this mare on her second start, makes the long journey to Hexham for just one ride on the card.

Cheekpieces go on for the handicap debut – everything looks set for a big run.

1st September- Newton Abbot Tip

7:00 – Jaytrack Parkhomes 7/2

While he hasn’t won since his bumper debut back in February 2018, he’s run plenty of credible races in the interim and everything looks set for a big run here.

He made his seasonal reappearance 27 days ago over hurdles (2m6f); having travelled keenly throughout, he still held a leading chance as the field but he emptied rather quickly; travelling too keenly over a trip further than optimal and racing against race-fit rivals ultimately contributed to that, and he shaped far better than the 16 length margin of defeat suggests.

His final run of last season over fences so it’s likely that his last run was just to help him gain fitness in preparation for a return to fences.

His sole chase start was extremely promising – finishing 2nd to a very well handicapped rival who made all the running, Ibleo; he went in to win his next start before finishing 2nd in deeper company. He’s now 20lbs higher than when beating Jaytrack Parkhomes.

Back in 3rd was Go Steady who won his next two starts and is now 11lbs higher.

It’s also worth noting that he was he was very well backed this day.

That was over 2 miles but Jaytrack Parkhomes was staying on at the finish and his best runs over hurdles came over intermediate trips. As such, the 2m5f looks ideal today and the experience of jumping fences at 2m pace should serve him in good stead.

Jonjo Jr takes the ride – he operates at a 18% S/R for Tizzard (P/L: +£6.91) while Colin Tizzard has a 20% S/R in handicaps at Newton Abbot.

A few of his rivals have something to prove so this looks a good opportunity for the selection to get his maiden victory over obstacles.

28th August – Fontwell Tip

1:40 – Pens Man 7/2

Purchased for £82k after winning a point-to-point (the form of which has a solid look to it), Pens Man showed glimpses of quality last season but I expect him to be seen in a much better light now he’s eligible for handicaps.

He shaped nicely on his debut for the yard in a competitive bumper, eventually finishing 4th; the winner, Confirmation Bias, is held in high regard while the 2nd and 3rd (Sizable Sam and Mont Segur) both won on their next start. While he was beaten 10 lengths, he was close up to the principles for the majority of the contest and only faded inside the final furlong.

Quickly sent over hurdles, Pens Man was pitched into some strong races. Held up in all three starts over timber to date, he shaped well on a couple of occasions without ever threatening the principles. Weak in the market on all four starts last term, I’m of the opinion that he’ll be a much better horse now he’s had some time to strengthen up; he’s a large horse and Jonjo is reportedly very fond of him.

Jonjo O’Neill has a great record with handicap debutants (27% SR) and I would be disappointed if Pens Man can’t prove better than a mark of 101. It’s worth noting that he ran four times in 54 days last season so I imagine that the plan was always to get him handicapped before giving him time to mature.

Compadre currently heads the market but he’s a much better over fences, while Shantou Sunset might find life tougher having been raised 9lbs for her recent handicap success.

27th August – Sedgefield Tip

2:50 – CANTON PRINCE 14/1 E/W

The booking of Richard Johnson is a massive plus for this son of Shantou’s chances; he’s ridden the selection on 10 occasions, resulting in 5 wins and 4 second’s.

He takes over from Charlie Price who rode him on his seasonal reappearance when he looked quite badly in need of the run, which isn’t too surprising given that he hadn’t been seen for 264 days. His jumping was a tad rusty and he was badly hampered on two occasions, the first of which brought him to a virtual standstill. So while he was well beaten, there are plenty of reasons to expect a better performance today.

Firstly, he was well beaten on his seasonal reappearance last season before winning on his next start; like today, Richard Johnson took over in the saddle. Secondly, Tim Vaughan’s runners have returned in good form after a quiet spell in June and July. The yard has only had 2 runners in the last few weeks, resulting in 1 win and a second place finish; both were ridden by Richard Johnson.

Canton Prince does face three notably in-form rivals today and while they all deserve to be at the top of the market, the eight runner field means that an each-way play makes plenty of appeal.

He’s only had five chase starts thus far and he does have some solid novice form to his name. Having won on chase debut, he bumped into subsequent Market Rasen winner, Potterman, on two occasions; he finished a close 2nd to him both times but that rival is now rated 142.

Canton Prince was a winner over hurdles from a mark of 127, reaching a peak rating of 135 in that sphere. He races off 125 today and he should be competitive with conditions to suit.

Race Analysis – 22nd August – 1:40 Uttoxeter

The Horses to Follow list has its first runner of the season on Saturday, with RETURN TICKET set to lineup the 1:40 at Uttoxeter; a class 2 handicap hurdle over 2 miles.

He makes his debut for Rebecca Menzies who is in a rich vein of form at present. In the last week, she’s had 3 winners from just 5 runners. For comparison, throughout the entirely of June and July, she only had 3 winners from 51 runners.

While many may see the stables upturn in form as a positive for Return Ticket’s chances, my concern would be that it’s a result of her horses accumulating fitness through prior runs. Her runners have generally looked in need of their seasonal reappearance and her three recent winners all had at-least two recent runs under their belts.

Furthermore, the fact that Return Ticket reverts to hurdles indicates to me that this is likely to be a prep run for a future outing over fences. I’ve been monitoring his entires throughout the summer and he’s been entered up multiple times in novice and handicap chases, so I expect him to return to that sphere sooner rather than later.

He’s equipped with a tongue tie for the first time which looks a sensible move considering that he often fails to find as much as he promises to. However, I think he’ll travel well but fitness will find him out late on. If that’s the case, he’ll be extremely interesting next time out, presuming he returns to fences.

It’s worth noting that Raecius Felix (who made the same owner/trainer switch as Return Ticket) made his seasonal reappearance over hurdles where he was well beaten, but he’s just been declared over at Cartmel for a handicap chase. Return Ticket is likely to follow a similar path.

As such, I will not be backing him on this occasion.

There are only five runners but three of them arrive in good form; CUBSWIN made all to beat the re-opposing BEYOND THE CLOUDS at Stratford a month ago. They’ve been raised six and four pounds respectively for their efforts and I’d expect Beyond the Clouds to reverse the form here.

That run was his first for Charlie Longsdon and having looked a tad rusty in the early stages, he shaped with great promise to close on Cubswin with every stride on the way to the line. He’s less exposed than the Neil King runner and a mark of 139 is fair when you consider some of his previous form; he beat Simply The Betts and Claimantakinforgan in a novice hurdle back in November 2018, giving the future Cheltenham winner 8lbs while Claimantakinforgan finished 5th in the Supreme on his next run. Brian Hughes, who rode him on all of his runs over jumps for Kevin Ryan, takes over in the saddle and he looks to have a leading chance.

Bryony Frost and Neil King have been in great form of late and Cubswin is likely to give a good account of himself from the front as he so often does. However, he’s on a career high mark and he may face competition for the lead from FLASHING GLANCE, who made all to win at Kempton back in November.

He’s only 2lbs higher than when winning that day, but his last run was extremely poor when equipped with a first time tongue tie (retained). He also concedes race fitness to all bar one of his rivals so connections may not be keen to get into an early skirmish for the lead with a race-fit Cubswin.

PURPLE KING comes here following a narrow victory at Southwell 12 days ago. He’s only 3lbs higher for that win but that’s not surpassing considering that seven jumped the last virtually in a line, with only three lengths separating that group at the finish. First time cheekpieces are enlisted to try and eek out further improvement and although Dr Richard Newland is a master of racking up winning sequences, he faces a higher caliber of opposition here which may prove beyond him.

PREDICTION:

1. Beyond the Clouds

2. Cubswin

3. Return Ticket