3:45 – Captain Mowbray 7/1 EW

Cartmel is very much a specialists track so I always favour a horse that’s proven to act well round here.

Captain Mowbray’s only run here was a winning one; he won comfortably by 11 lengths. That was off 108, the same mark he races off today.

While has has a long absence to overcome, he has run well when fresh in the past. When returning from a break of 3 months or more, his form figures read: 2F63. His fall came when he was leading at the last. Furthermore, only 1 of today’s 8 runners have had a recent run and Rebecca Menzies is capable of getting one ready first time out.

From my research, it appears that Captain Mowbray had a slight which kept him off the track over the winter. From Rebecca’s tweets, he has been been back in training for some time and this meeting was the target.

Regular rider Nathan Moscrop continues in the saddle. This is Rebecca’s only runner on the day and she’s had 2 wins and 2 places from just 6 runners here in the last 5 years (over fences)

5:05 – Lilypad 2/1

A mare in great form following a win on the flat before backing that up with two second place finishes (1 on the flat and 1 over hurdles)

She was well fancied when finishing 2nd at Southwell 10 days ago. While the winner, Saintbury Lad, was a good one, Lilypad had quite a bad trip.

Jack Quinlan clearly wanted her to be up with the pace early, but that plan came crashing down at the 2nd hurdle; the horse to her left jumped right across her and squeezed her between two others. Short of room, Jack was forced to surrender her prominent position as she was forced back into midfield and widest of all.

Her jumping wasn’t the slickest, but the fixed brush hurdles can be off putting to some horses and they punish poor jumping more than traditional hurdles, so I expect a better round of jumping today.

As they turned for home, she was again forced widest of all to mount her challenge. Meanwhile, the winner had a dream run through on the inside.

Lilypad was clearly best of the rest that day and she is due to go up 1lb in the handicap.

Amy Murphy has been in good form since the restart; her jumps runners since the start of July have recorded form figures of: 2121212 She makes the 9 hour round trip to Newton Abbot for just 1 runner – it’s actually her first ever runner here. Likewise, this is Jack Quinlan’s only ride and the duo operate at an 18% strike rate and a level stakes profit of £44.21 when teaming up (last 12 months)

There are a couple of interesting rivals, but Lilypad looks the clear form pick in my mind.

1:10 – Petrucci 12/1 E/W

Returns to his last winning mark of 88; like today, that victory came off the back of a break. He was very well backed that day; 25s into 6s.

He was a strong favourite on his next start where he disappointed but that was only 7 days after his win so he could’ve bounced after being off the track for 489 days before that.

Excuses can be found for each of his four subsequent runs. Down the field in a deep 0-110 conditionals novice handicap hurdle at Ludlow, he was running a good race but he was running a good race before getting bumped twice on the turn for home which didn’t help.

His next two starts came over fences but he didn’t take to chasing, while his final start came on unsuitably soft ground.

However, the return to quick ground today is sure to suit and Tom Bellamy is back on board like he was for his win. He’s ridden him three times: for his well backed win, when he was strong favourite on his next start and then when he was 2nd favourite at Hereford. His presence appears to be a signal of intent.

The stable have been ticking along nicely since racing’s resumption, with 1 win and 2 placed from 7 runners since the start of July. Incidentally, the winner was ridden by Tom Bellamy.

He’s unexposed at 3 miles and while I don’t think he’s an out and out stayer at this trip, Uttoxeter on good ground represents more of a test of speed at the trip which will aid his cause.

In a weak race, he can make his presence felt. Market support would be encouraging given he was well backed when winning last time.

1:40 – Wherewouldugetit 25/1 E/W

This is a very weak race. Dan Skelton’s horse will be the favourite on sufferance in part due to his 3rd at Newton Abbot earlier in the month. Watching Brief hasn’t won in 22 attempts under rules; him being 2nd favourite speaks volumes about this contest.

Hence, I’ve looked outside the box and comedown on big priced outside, Wherewouldugetit

Bought for £90k after winning an irish PTP under Derek O’Connor in November 2018, he beat Grey Getaway (now with Paul Nicholls), Word Has It (Donald McCain), Chazza (winner for Kim Bailey) that day so the form is solid, although we know that point form doesn’t necessarily translate under rules.

He went to Andrew McNamara to begin his rules career but he was well beaten in a bumper and two maiden hurdles.

He was subsequently sold for just £6.5k and went to Sara Ender’s yard.

His first run for her was promising, despite the margin of defeat being 27 lengths. In rear throughout, he made nice progress under pressure to take 4th on the turn for home. He did get headed close home to finish 5th, but it was still a decent effort. From 1st to 7th, the horses from that race are now rated: 114, 115, 119, 102, 122 & 112. They were off level weights.

Well beaten on his next three starts in handicaps, they were all on soft/heavy ground which doesn’t suit this son of Morozov. She won his point on good, he’s a brother to handicap hurdle winner Walter Oneeightone who preferred good (modest, won off 88) and he’s closely related to the useful Sea Light who won over hurdles and fences for Charles Brynes on good to yielding ground (rated as high as 130)

Both of those relatives were best at 3 miles, so this trip promises to be his optimum.

Sara Ender is 1/1 since racing resumed, winning with new recruit Lord Springfield at Southwell so she can get one ready first time out (and the selections most promising run came FTO for the yard)

Upped to 3 miles on good ground with a lowly mark of 81 (13lb lower than handicap debut), he could stage a revival. This is a very weak race and given that he’s only a 6yo, he can show himself to much better effect here.

2:40 – Our Rockstar 25/1 E/W

A rather speculative one, but there are reasons to expect an improved performance from this mare.

Well beaten on all three starts last season, it’s important to note that all three of those runs came on soft ground which does not suit her. Stranger still, her last two starts came over two miles despite her best runs coming over 2m4f-3m.

In my mind, they were runs to get her handicap mark back down to a level where she could go well. In all of those starts, she was held up in rear and was never put into the race.

Two seasons ago, she ran won on her handicap debut off a mark of 94 before winning again off 102. Another good run in defeat after that saw her mark soar to 114. Since then, her form reads: 69008.

However, her mark has plummeted by 20lbs following those five runs which sees her return to a mark of 94; the mark she won off a year ago and 8lbs lower than her last winning mark.

Furthermore, she gets the step up in trip today and is back on her preferred good ground.

You have to hope that last season was a blip (and hopefully an intentional one to make her well handicapped again), but she’s only a 6-year-old with 11 starts over hurdles to her name so it’s not like she’s been on the go along time.

At the prices and with a field size of only 9, she’s worth an EW bet.

2:45 – Almost Gold 4/1

The least exposed of the five runners, Almost Gold should be up to winning over fences off this mark having previously won off today’s mark over hurdles.

Sent off favourite or second favourite for all three of his chase starts to date, his most promising run came on his penultimate run at Huntington. In a race where only three ever got into contention, Tom O’Brien looked confident as they jumped three out (traded at 1.55 in running), despite being several lengths adrift of the eventual winner (Chase the Wind) and the third place finisher (Alexander the Grey)

Ultimately, the jockey gave his mount too much to do; he closed on the winner all the way to the line but never looked like reaching him. That race has worked out well: the winner placed on his next two starts, the 3rd & 4th both won on their next start while the 5th won three of his next five starts.

He couldn’t back that effort up when next seen at Exeter, but they was on soft ground which doesn’t suit the selection. His record on good/good to soft is: 93143352

His record on soft(or worse) is: 77409

Hence, the good ground today will be in his favour.

Ian Williams and Tom O’Brien team up with their only runner/ride on the card: the selections record under Tom O’Brien is: 741332

Under other jockeys: 9730459

The booking of Tom O’Brien, in my mind, underlines their intent.

It’s also worth noting that he’s run well on both of his seasonal reappearances; finishing 3rd over hurdles off today’s mark before finishing 2nd over fences.

He’s shown a tendency to jump slightly out to his left at times so the return to a left handed track should help him.

This lightly raced 7yo is out of a chase & point-to-point winner and is closer related to chase winner, Oscar O’scar. Given his pedigree and the form he’s shown to date, it would be disappointing were he not able to win over fences from this mark.

4/1 in a 5 runner race is more than a fair price.