1:45 – De Barley Basket 5/1

When I tipped Tel’Art (won at Southwell at the start of July), I noted that it would be worth following Ben Pauling horses that ran poorly around the time that the yard were having issues.

The selection ran either side of the yards shutdown (they refrained from having runners from 7th November to 3rd December)

His hurdles debut at Plumpton (21st October) was actually quite promising. Sent off an 11/2 shot, he travelled nicely throughout the race and traded at a low of 1.72 in running as they turned for home. He didn’t find much once push came to shove but Daryl Jacob looked after him once beaten; the 17 length margin of defeat exaggerates the degree to which he was beaten.

Next seen at Sandown in a very hot novice hurdle, his price of 66/1 is indicative of the quality of his opposition. The race was won by subsequent Tolworth winner, Fiddlerontheroof. A leading group of 6 pulled clear of the rest as the pace began to pick up, but DBB was the only one capable of tracking them on the bridle. Ultimately, he faded in what were very testing conditions but the run wasn’t completely devoid of promise. Of the front 6 from that race, 5 won later on that season; the only one who didn’t, Timberman, hasn’t run since and already had some decent form to his name.

His final start of the season came at Huntington where he finished a well beaten 3rd. He has subsequently had a wind operation which may indicate that they found an issue.

It’s important to note that all three of his novice hurdles runs came on soft/heavy ground. DBB won his point-to-point on good ground and he hails from a family that tend to prefer a sounder surface.

He’s a full brother to two very useful types – they’ve both won over fences:

⁃ Global Citizen: Grade 2 winning novice hurdler and chaser. 4th in this years Arkle. Ben Pauling thought he’d go much closer if the ground was quicker.

⁃ A Hare Breath: 4th in a Greatwood Hurdle and rated as high as 147 over fences in his pomp. Novice chase winner.

Ben Pauling trains/trained them both so he knows the family well and the dam was placed in a chase over two miles.

DBB is a chaser on looks and his pedigree certainly suggests that he’ll take to it well.

It would be hugely disappointing if he could not surpass a mark of 94.

12:30 – Wasdell Dundalk 6/1 EW

Last season was a learning experience for this son of Spirit One. He was very weak in the market when making his seasonal reappearance and the same was true when he made his debut over hurdles a month later.

Eventually sent off a 40/1 chance, he travelled and jumped nicely on the wide outside throughout. He certainly didn’t look like a big priced outsider as they swung for home; he swept up on the outside to dispute the lead and traded at a low of 4/1 in running. As they straightened up, he was gently nudged along but his rivals were being ridden far more vigorously. Even as his rivals pulled a few lengths clear, Nick Scholfield was still only nursing him along. Only after the last did he ride him with intent and the response was immediate. He passed 3 rivals with one tap of the whip to finish an eyecatching 4th.

His next two starts came on unsuitably heavy ground. Still, he was not disgraced in either race but it’s his Leicester run that is of more significance. Held up in rear throughout, he was never put into the race and the jockeys urgings were minimal even as the leading group pulled away. Despite being out of shot for most of the home straight, he did make late headway to finish 5th.

He’s completely unexposed at 2m4f having run exclusive over 2m, with the step up in trip looking sure to suit. Connections of Wasdell Dundalk used a similar route with Tedham; who won on his handicap debut over an intermediate trip after three starts at 2 miles.

Jonjo O’Neill has made a decent start to this “new” season. He’s had 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners but a couple of others have run well. Interestingly, his winner was also a handicap hurdle debutant.

A mark of 111 looks workable and with conditions in his favour, he can make his presence felt here. He’s a nice looking type and his dam is very closely related to the grade 1 winner, Hinterland. It would be disappointing were he not to surpass this rating in time.

Sebeastian Beach has to be respected after his bloodless win last time but he drops back in trip and he’s never won off a mark this high. Fresh New Dawn rates the main danger; he goes well fresh and the inform Olly Murphy performs well at Market Rasen. Gavrocheka hit the crossbar in three starts last term and there should still be improvement left in her, but Philip Hobbs’ runners have a record of: 99P86 since returning from a break – all of those were single figure prices.

2:50 – My Renaissance 9/1 EW

This is a weak race and while the selection is getting on in years, he’s more than capable of taking this if he’s on a going day.

A four time winner over fences, those victories came off marks of: 80, 89, 95 & 102. The most recent of those victories came in August 2019 off 102; he’s 8lb lower today. All four of those wins came over or around today’s trip (2m-2m1.5f) on good ground, which he also gets today.

Unlike the rest of his rivals, he comes here off the back of a spin on a flat. He was well beaten off a lowly mark, but that was only a prep run for a summer jumps campaign. If you look at last season, My Renaissance suffered a 49 length defeat on his first run back but showed greatly improved form on his next start; he looked set to go very close before falling at the 2nd from home.

Dropped back into a class 5 handicap chase for the first time since July 2018, his record in this class over fences is: 1141

While all of his chase wins have come at either Sedgefield or Cartmel, Stratford shares similar characteristics to those tracks: they’re all left handed and relatively sharp. As such, the track shouldn’t be an issue.

4:00 – Eclair Des Sablons 20/1 EW

I was going to swerve this card, but the price about Eclair Des Sablons tempted me in.

A point to point winner who’s only had six starts under rules, Eclair Des Sablons proved last season that he’s very capable when fresh. On his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut, he lost by a neck to subsequent Cheltenham Trials Day handicap winner, Back on the Lash. Also, the 5th and 6th placed runners won on their next starts.

In hindsight, his performance of 115 shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise; he improved with each start in novice hurdles, culminating in a narrow defeat to the now 138 rated Skandiburg (who gave EDS 6lbs). The 3rd place finisher, Slaine, won three of her next six starts and is now rated 120; she finished 1 length behind EDS (EDS was giving her 10lbs I total)

That performance came on good ground off a a mark of 115; those conditions are mirrored here.

Raised 5lbs for that run, EDS failed to progress as expected but it’s too soon to give up on this lightly races 6-year-old.

He looks a chaser in the making and given his point-to-point background, it won’t be long before he’s sent over fences; the one concern I’d have is that this might be a prep run for a future run over the larger obstacles.

But his price is large enough to justify a bet, given that conditions are in his favour and he’s proven when fresh.

Katy Price does have a better record with her chasers but Uttoxeter has been her most successful track to date; 5 winners and 7 places from 39 runners, resulting in a level stakes profit of £8 to a £1 stake.

He does like to go from the front which suits Uttoxeter, but Bannixtown Glory also has a history of front running. Regardless, there looks to be plenty in his favour and EDS is worth an each way bet in an open race.

4:00 – Eclair Des Sablons 16/1 EW

I was going to swerve this card, but the price about Eclair Des Sablons tempted me in.

A point to point winner who’s only had six starts under rules, Eclair Des Sablons proved last season that he’s very capable when fresh. On his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut, he lost by a neck to subsequent Cheltenham Trials Day handicap winner, Back on the Lash. Also, the 5th and 6th placed runners won on their next starts.

In hindsight, his performance of 115 shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise; he improved with each start in novice hurdles, culminating in a narrow defeat to the now 138 rated Skandiburg (who gave EDS 6lbs). The 3rd place finisher, Slaine, won three of her next six starts and is now rated 120; she finished 1 length behind EDS (EDS was giving her 10lbs I total)

That performance came on good ground off a a mark of 115; those conditions are mirrored here.

Raised 5lbs for that run, EDS failed to progress as expected but it’s too soon to give up on this lightly races 6-year-old.

He looks a chaser in the making and given his point-to-point background, it won’t be long before he’s sent over fences; the one concern I’d have is that this might be a prep run for a future run over the larger obstacles.

But his price is large enough to justify a bet, given that conditions are in his favour and he’s proven when fresh.

Katy Price does have a better record with her chasers but Uttoxeter has been her most successful track to date; 5 winners and 7 places from 39 runners, resulting in a level stakes profit of £8 to a £1 stake.

He does like to go from the front which suits Uttoxeter, but Bannixtown Glory also has a history of front running. Regardless, there looks to be plenty in his favour and EDS is worth an each way bet in an open race.