1:40 – Tel’Art 17/2 EW

The selection ran either side of Pauling yards downturn in form, which saw them refrain from having runners from 7th November until the 3rd December. A faulty batch of hay, which lacked sufficient potassium, was found to be the cause.

For reference: The yards record from the beginning of October to the 7th November was: 1 win & 1 place from 20 runners.

His first run of the season was a good one. Sent off 9/4f for a class 5 handicap off today’s mark of 102, he was prominent early before taking up the running at the midway stage. Trading at a low of 1.5 in running, two poor jumps at the final two flights didn’t help his cause as he was eventually beaten off by Benton’s Lad – the pair were 6 lengths clear of 3rd. This race was on the 8th October so he fared better than the majority of his rivals did during this period.

He then ran on December (8th), just as Pauling’s yard began to have runners again. Put into a competitive class 4, he showed up well for a long way before fading tamely to finish a distant 10th. He was dropped back to a mark of 102 for that run.

In that 2 week period following the yards resumption (3rd – 17th), they still weren’t firing on all cylinders: 1 win and 1 place from 21 runners. It wasn’t until late December that they started returning to form.

Tel’Art’s best performances have come when fresh. His first run for yard came when 5th in a competitive bumper. He was sent off joint favourite that day and was only beaten 3.75L, with dual bumper winner and listed placed Nobby (1st), with the now 127 rated Kingofthecotswolds (2nd) only narrowly ahead of him.

He got off the mark when winning a bumper on his 18/19 seasonal debut. He made all to beat NTO winner, Jimmy The Digger, by just over a length. The pair pulled 10 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher, Weapons Out. That rival went on to finish 4th in a red hot bumper; Floressa (1st, listed winner), Shantou Express (2nd, listed placed) & Shanroe (3rd, won three consecutive bumpers after this race) were the only three to finish ahead of him.

He’s disappointed on the majority of his hurdle starts to date, but he did run in some deep novice hurdles.

Nico De Boinville comes here for just the one ride; the trainer/jockey combination operate at an 18% S/R (+£57.95 to a £1 stake – all time record)

At the track, Nico has 20 wins and 24 places from just 80 rides while Pauling operates at a 21% S/R here.

Good ground is essential for the selection and his prominent running style will suit this track. There doesn’t appear to be many pace alternatives in the race, so Nico could well go from the front.

Still only 6yo, there’s still time for him to improve over hurdles. Back down to a class 5, everything looks set for a big run.

Triumph: Solo 4/1

County: Aramon 16/1 EW Ante-Post

Albert Bartlett: Redford Road 33/1 EW

Gold Cup: Al Boum Photo 7/2

Foxhunters: Caid Du Berlais 14/1 EW

Grand Annual: Us And Them 25/1 EW

Martin Pipe: Front View 8/1 Ante-Post

1:30 – Triumph Hurdle

I’ve found this race incredibly difficult to weigh up.

I was initially in the camp of ALLMANKIND. Once considered to be close to Derby standard as a two-year-old, He’s three from three since switching to Dan Skelton. A grade 1 winner at Chepstow where he comfortably beat CERBERUS, he’s a headstrong front runner who’s grinded his rivals into submission. He’s impressed with the way he’s maintained a strong pace throughout his races and the time of his last two runs show that he may be a bit more controlled than on debut. His form has worked out very well, he’s an agile jumper and assistant trainer Tom Messenger said that “he’s the most exciting horse we’ve had”. The concern would be his ability to dictate affairs in a field where some of his rivals like to go forward. It will be a remarkable performance to make all in this field and I’m happy to side elsewhere at the prices.

GOSHEN is another to have looked “Freakish” since transitioning to hurdles after winning three successive handicaps on the flat. He’s one that has gone well from the front but he did react positively when taken on for the lead last time. He does jump right which would be a significant concern in this field. Gary Moore has stated that he’s “potentially the best horse I’ve had” and the way he’s decimated fields indicates that he’s a horse of serious ability.

ASPIRE TOWER leads the Irish charge. The Spring Juvenile hurdle he fell in has provided five of the last ten winners of the Triumph; A WAVE OF THE SEA won, staying on best of all after Aspire Tower fell and Cerberus appeared to pull himself up. I’m not sure that’s the strongest form.

SOLO was a very impressive winner of Adonis. His performance earned a mark of 157 which many have criticised as being too high, but it was hard not to like the style in which he won. He travelled and jumped like a dream and while his competition was not of the highest quality, it was the most complete performance by a Juvenile this term. With the race likely to be run at a frantic pace, his uncomplicated style will allow him to sit in and pick up the pieces should the pace be too strong. Paul Nicholls did the Adonis/Triumph double with Zarkandar back in 2011. He’s also represented by SIR PSYCHO who is another likely to be staying on at the finish.

2:10 – County Handicap Hurdle

Sixteen of the last nineteen winners were novices or second season hurdlers while the Irish have a great recent record in the race.

Willie Mullins has performed very well in this race recently; in the last 10 years, he’s won it 4 times and had a further 7 finish in the first 4 from 27 runners. This year, he’s represented by ARAMON, who gets in here off just 149; only 1 pound higher than his Irish mark.

He makes his handicap debut after 8 consecutive runs in Grade 1 company; it’s not as if he couldn’t compete either, as he managed to win and finish 2nd twice at the highest level.

Sent off just 8/1 for last year’s Supreme, he ran a far better race than a finishing position of 6th suggests. He made smooth headway to chase the leaders at 2 out (trading at a low of 3.0 in running) but he faded after the last on ground far slower than ideal for him.

After a below par seasonal reappearance in the Matheson (It’s been well documented that Willie’s have generally needed their first run), he ran a much better race in the Irish Champion Hurdle; I’d encourage everyone to re-watch that race as it was an eye-catching performance. Held up, he still hadn’t been asked for an effort at the 2nd last despite being 8th. Nursed along to close, he stayed on nicely to finish a fine 5th, only beaten 8.5 lengths.

Aramon’s path isn’t too dissimilar to Arctic Fire’s – the 2017 winner. He arrived here after running in 10 consecutive graded races, proving that class horses can win this race.

He also fits a few other trends for this race; 16 of the last 19 winners were either novices or second season hurdlers while 12 of the last 16 winners (including the last 4) began their career on the flat – Aramon ticks both of those boxes.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

This has traditionally been a nightmare for punters; Seven of the last ten winners have returned at a double figure SP; including a 50/1 shot and three at 33/1.

It helps to focus on those with plenty of experience and solid graded form. The last fifteen winners all won or placed in a graded hurdle while fourteen of the last fifteen winners ran in a graded hurdle last time out. Only Minella Indo had less than three runs over hurdles.

REDFORD ROAD makes plenty of appeal as an each way option. He beat Champagne Well in the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle here back in December. He beat Champagne Well that day who was beaten by Thyme Hill the time before and was in the process of running a good race in the Coral Cup before blundering at the 2^nd last. Winners of the Bristol have a great record in the Albert Bartlett – Twelve have attempted the double since 2000, resulting in four wins and three places; Unowhatimeanharry (2016) & Kilbricken Storm (2018) were the latest success stories.

I’m prepared to put a line through his last run. The drop back in trip wouldn’t have suited and he was having his 5^th start in 100 days so he may well have been over the top. Freshened up since, he won’t lack for fitness being trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and he looks overpriced.

3:30 – Gold Cup

The showpiece of the week and we have a very open renewal this year.

Starting with the defending champion: AL BOUM PHOTO. There hasn’t been a back-to-back winner of the Gold Cup since Best Mate completed the treble in 2004. Many will point to that as a negative for his chances but I don’t believe there’s much credence to that belief. Only 8 reigning champions have taken their chance since Best Mate; their record is: 22FP35P4 – not great, but only one of the five to complete finished outside the first four.

It’s also encouraging that Willie has mirrored last year’s light preparation; Henrietta Knight prolonged Best Mate’s longevity by giving him a light campaign so that can only be viewed as a positive for Al Boum Photo. He’s only an 8-year-old with just 15 starts under rules so he has plenty of miles left in the tank. Having looked as good as ever at Tramore last time out, I think he has an outstanding chance of doing the double. After all, it took Willie Mullins all this time to win a Gold Cup and when you consider the class of horse he’s had over the years, this lad must have something special about him!

SANTINI is the definition of a ‘Marmite’ horse; you either love him or you hate him. I’m not a fan but I can completely understand why many will fancy him: His run in the RSA last season was superb considering his interrupted preparation (he suffered a foot injury a couple weeks before the race and had a reoccurrence of the issue just a week before the festival) – that form looks very solid now and second season chasers do well in this race. With just five chase starts to his name, you’d expect there to be improvement to come.

He’s been labelled as a plodder which is a tad harsh but he’s certainly not the quickest and I worry about his tactical speed in a race of this nature. He has fallen short in his two attempts at a Grade 1 over fences (no horse in the past 20 years has on the Gold Cup without winning a Grade 1 over fences first) and I believe he has to improve significantly to win this. I’m not sure whether the first-time cheekpieces are necessary and only 1 winner in the last 17 years has worn headgear. Al Boum Photo should be the clear favourite over him.

LOSTINTRANSLATION was as short as 9/2 for this earlier in the season after beating Bristol De Mai on his beloved Haydock. He bitterly disappointed in the King George but he was seemingly never right that day and he’s had a wind operation since then. It’s worth noting that connections could not find a specific reason for his disappointing performance at Kempton so the wind operation is not certain to help. His novice form with Defi Du Seuil reads well and if he can return to the form of his Betfair Chase victory, he’d have a chance. Still, you have to forgive his dismal run last time out and he’s short enough in the betting.

After disappointing on his reappearance behind Road to Respect, DELTA WORK won two consecutive Grade 1’s, thrusting him firmly into the Gold Cup picture. Winner of the Pertemps as a 5-year-old and 3^rd in last year’s RSA, he boasts solid Festival form and he looks to have improved this season. It’s also worth noting that he missed his intended preparation at the Dublin Racing Festival last season so his RSA effort can be upgraded. His jumping had been questionable but he’s been slicker on his last two starts. Mark Walsh will deputise for the injured Jack Kennedy; expect him to deliver Delta Work late. He has a lot in his favour.

Beaten horses in last year’s Gold Cup have a poor record; Native River is the only horse this century to win a Gold Cup having been beaten in the race previously. This brings CLAN DES OBEAUX’S claims into question; I’ve been back and forth with him but I’ve finally decided to oppose him. I like the fact that he’s had a lighter campaign this season (ran at Ascot after the King George last season) but I just don’t think he’s a Gold Cup horse. I’m not convinced by the argument that they made too much use of him last year as he was only narrowly ahead of Al Boum Photo when they started their final circuit. He reminds me of Silviniaco Conti – very good horse, but not a Gold Cup horse.

The interesting one for me is KEMBOY. A faller at the first last year, he was the shortest price of the Mullins quarter that day. He made amends for that hiccup by winning the Aintree Bowl & the Punchestown Gold Cup in good style, beating Clan Des Obeaux and Al Boum Photo respectively. Not at his best this term, he was only 3.5 lengths behind Delta Work on his seasonal reappearance (Willie’s were all needed their first run) before a sloppy round of jumping cost him in the Irish Gold Cup; he made an error at every flight in the back straight but was only beaten by 1.5 lengths in the end.

Kemboy has been seen to best effect when allowed to go from the front as it seems to help him get into a rhythm. With Native River now missing the race, none of the four horses (Might Bite, Invitation Only, Definitely Red & Native River) will line up this year. With a lack of alternative pace angles, this could allow Kemboy to dictate matters at the head of affairs. He has plenty of class and a very high cruising speed; if he can get to the lead without much competition, he can go very close.

4:10 – Foxhunters (Hunters’ Chase)

Reigning champion HAZEL HILL bids to retain his crown as he looks to become the fourth back-to-back winner of the race since 2012, following in the footsteps of Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha du Polder. The 12-year old arrives here after being beaten by Minella Rocco at Wetherby after jumping poorly. He reportedly had a slight muscle strain after the race which probably explains his below par performance. Still, it’s far from ideal preparation and age is not on his side; only 2 winners in the past 43 years were aged 12 or older and it only 1 winner since 1990 was over the age of 11. At the prices, I’m happy to oppose him.

MINELLA ROCCO has enjoyed a career renaissance since switching to hunter chases. He’s two from two in this sphere and his defeat on Hazel Hill reads very well if you take the form literally (there are reasons to question it). A National Hunt Chase winner and a Gold Cup runner up in his hay day, he was unquestionably classy but I couldn’t have him here for love nor money. Backing familiar names has not proven to be a profitable strategy in this race; Ucello Conti could only manage 5^th last year despite going off at 4/1.

Despite preview evening chat, Derek O’Connor rides Minella Rocco instead of STAKER WALLACE. Very lightly raced for a 9-year-old with just six starts in total, Derek described him as “exceptionally talented” and he’s won a point to point since his last run under rules (his first start for three years) His lack of experience would be a serious concern in a race of this nature; Stand Up And Fight was well beaten last year despite being widely touted, adding to the list of lightly raced types to be beaten. He reportedly needs soft ground to be at his best and I think there are better options, although I expect him to be well backed. He could be one for next year, if he can keep sound.

Before winning a point in February, Staker Wallace was beaten comfortably by BILLAWAY at Naas the time before (although the former was having his first run for three years). Billaway is on an upward curve and he’ll have the services of Patrick Mullins. That race was run in a slow time and it was interesting to see that his stable mate, the late Casey Jem, was the only horse being backed just before the off.

This is the event that David Maxwell spends fortunes for so SHANTOU FLYER is entitled to plenty of respect, especially after he finished 2^nd in this race last season.

However, preference is for CAID DU BERLAIS for Rose Loxton. 5^th in 2018 after a troubled passage (out the rear for much of the race before having to use a lot of energy to challenge the leaders, only to be picked off after the last), he had a troubled preparation last year. He only qualified for the race 12 days before, winning a point-to-point in very deep ground. That run clearly left a mark on him as he showed none of his usual zest and he was eventually pulled up. Rejuvenated after a 42-day break, he routed a decent field in the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase, winning by 21 lengths.

Qualification has gone much smoother this time around; he won a point-to-point in January beating a useful rival. With top rider Will Biddick in the saddle, Caid Du Berlais can make it 3^rd time lucky.

4:50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase

With my ante-post fancies for this race have not turned up and I do not have a strong opinion on this race.

As such, I’m willing to take a chance on US AND THEM. 2^nd in last year’s Arkle and for all that it wasn’t a vintage renewal, it did show that he acts at Cheltenham; thirteen of the last fifteen winners previously ran at the festival. After an encouraging seasonal reappearance, his form has dipped but he was running in heavy ground over a trip which probably stretches him. He was running a better race last time out before a mistake two out and it’s encouraging that Joseph O’Brien has freshened him up since; it’s likely that this was the plan.

A strongly run two miles looks ideal and he can go close at a big price.

5:30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Lightly raced types have thrived in this race as of late, with ten of the last eleven winners having less than 9 starts over hurdles to their name.

In particular, Irish novice hurdlers have won four of the last six renewals and they all arrived here having run in a graded race,

FRONT VIEW has been well touted since finishing 2^nd in a grade 3 at Thurles on his most recent start following a 3 month break. Weak in the market before the off, he travelled powerfully in rear before making smooth headway to join the leaders approaching two out. He still hadn’t been asked for an effort when getting checked approaching the last, forcing him to switch wide. A poor jump at the last ended any chance of winning but he stayed on nicely to grab 2^nd on the line. Blow by Blow (1^st) and Champagne Classic (3^rd) ran in the same race before winning the Martin Pipe in 2018 & 2017 respectively.

His form prior to that run is solid; he was 2^nd to Envoi Allen on his hurdles debut, with the useful Entoucas back in 3^rd. He then won a maiden when beating the talented Uthred (who won a listed bumper on his next start) with subsequent winner Jon Snow back in 3^rd.

He represents last year’s winning connections and I think he’s got the potential to progress far beyond a mark of 139.

Marsh: Itchy Feet 9/2

Pertemps: The Storyteller 12/1 Ante-Post

Ryanair: A Plus Tard 7/4

Stayers’ Hurdle: Ronald Pump W/O Paisley 10/1 EW

The Plate: Simply The Betts 6/1 Ante-Post

Mares’ Novice Hurdle: Dolcita 15/2 EW

Kim Muir: Kilfilum Cross 33/1 Ante-Post

1:30 – Marsh Novice Chase

In nine renewals, all nine winners ran in a graded chase while seven of the nine winners won a graded chase on their last start. Furthermore, all nine winners had run over hurdles at a previous festival.

ITCHT FEET fits the bill following his impressive win in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown; Defi Du Seuil did the double last year. It was a good performance considering it was only his second run over fences and his first came in a three-runner race. I was taken by the way he travelled to join the leaders approaching two out; he pecked on landing at that fence but he was straight on the bridle after and he powered to a comfortable victory, ahead of the re-opposing MIDNIGHT SHADOW. A good 3^rd in last year’s Supreme, the ground will be no problem and he looks to hold a leading chance.

Willie Mullins has won four renewals of this race. It was as slight surprise to see Allaho not run here but that decision was probably be made with the knowledge that FAUGHEEN was coming here. A Neptune and a Champion Hurdle winner, he’s a remarkable horse; to win two grade 1 novice chases as a 12-year-old is unheard of and his win in the Flogas will live long in the memory of many racing fans; it’s worth noting that none of Willie’s four winners ran in the Flogas, which tends to be more of an RSA trial. It would be phenomenal if he were to win here. Willie is also represented by dual Champion Hurdle runner-up MELON. He comes alive in the Spring and the reapplication of cheekpieces is a plus but he does need to improve on his chase form to date.  BAPAUME and TORNADO FLYER also represent Mullins but both need to find extra in this company.

MISTER FISHER stayed on nicely to beat Good Boy Bobby over course and distance (that rival was well behind Itchy Feet on his next outing) and he’s shown enough pace to win over two miles. He was considered for the Arkle but this looks a more suitable race for him. He prefers good ground so he’d want it to dry out as much as possible.

SAMCRO is somewhat of an enigma. He’s had a wind operation after a tame finishing effort behind Faugheen and any market support for him would be interesting.

RESERVE TANK hasn’t fully convinced over fences yet but he did thrive in the spring last season. He hasn’t been seen since November and he may be one for Aintree or Punchestown (where he won two grade 1’s last season)

SAINT SONNET is a dark horse for Paul Nicholls. I remember him talking his chances up at a preview night before he’d even run for him. He comfortable won at Catterick and while he boasts some good French form, it would be some training performance for him to win this on just his second start in Britain.

VERDICT: ITCHY FEET

2:10 – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

I have mixed feelings about this race. We all know that racing is full of plots, but this race actively encourages uncompetitive behaviour – only two of the last twenty-three Pertemps Final winners had won a qualifier. In qualifiers, 6^th is the new 1^st!

I backed THE STORYTELLER for this after he snuck into 6^th in the Leopardstown qualifier. Three of the last four winners had qualified through that race and Davy Russell clearly did not ride him to win that day. A winner of the Plate back in 2017, he was a tad short of top class over fences but he’s rated 16lbs lower over hurdles so it was a shrewd move by connections to go down this route. The 7lb rise by the British handicapper is fair given his previous festival exploits and Davy Russell has ridden three of the last four winners of this race; his patient style is well suited to the new course. He’s a short price now but his claims are obvious and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t bang there at the finish, especially when you consider that all seven of Elliott’s runners in the last four years have finished in the top five.

ROCKET LAD is an interesting one. He showed some smart form in bumpers before translating that ability to hurdles earlier in the winter. He broke his maiden at Gowran Park in a race that’s worked out extremely well; Drury (2^nd) has won twice subsequently while Run Wild Fred (3^rd) has won two of his next three starts (including a grade 3 when lowering the colours of Lord Royal) while Silver Sheen (4^th) won his next three and was a leading fancy for this before being ruled out through injury.

He was lame on his next run before reappearing in the grade 2 novice hurdle on Trials Day. He travelled like a dream throughout and looked a real threat on the turn for home but he pulled up quickly without being asked for an effort. On the back of that, it was very surprising to see him run just 8 days later in a Pertemps qualifier. It was a farce of a race, with just 7 runners (and one refusing to race) and Rocket Lad plodding out the back without ever being put into the race. Still, his 6^th place finish ensured his place in this race and this race. There are two possibilities: this is a plot or the horse has completely lost his way. He sports a first-time hood and Patrick Mullin, his cousin, is is an eye-catching jockey booking – from 23 rides, he’s ridden 6 winners & 9 places for Emmet which is a fine strike rate. He’s still lightly raced and this has been a race where inexperienced, Irish runners have thrived in recent years. There are risks attached, but he’s worth a small EW bet.

2:50 – Ryanair Chase

I’ve flipped and flopped over this race but I’ve finally settled on A PLUS TARD. He has the typical profile for a race like this and his emphatic victory in the Close Brothers lives fresh in the memory.

MIN is a good rival and it’s unfortunate that Chacun Pour Soi couldn’t show what that form at Dublin was worth. He looks in need of a greater stamina test these days, as he demonstrated when winning at Aintree – beating the Champion Chase winner Politologue by 20 lengths in the Melling. He’s yet to win at Cheltenham and while chasing home Altior isn’t bad form, I have a feeling that he’s missed his chance to win here.

3:30 – Stayers’ Hurdle

It’s very hard to oppose PAISLEY PARK. Last year’s champion has looked even more impressive this term; he looks to travel better in his races now, which he demonstrated when beating SUMMERVILLE BOY with ease in the Cleeve, despite the latter getting the run of the race from the front. That rival is currently the 2^nd favourite which indicates the strength of the Emma Lavelle trained star. Paisley has all the attributes you look for in a staying hurdler and he looks very solid.

EMITOM won the Rendlesham in good style last time out and there should be more to come from the lightly raced 6-year-old. Warren Greatrex has always raved about this horse and he’s no stranger to success in this race having won it with Cole Harden in 2015. There are more races to be won with him but it would be a big shock if he turned over the favourite here.

The most interesting outsider to me is RONALD PUMP. He’s improved significantly since winning a handicap off 102 in December 2018. His run in the Leopardstown Pertemps qualifier was very eye-catching. In rear throughout, he finished strongest of all to finish just one length behind Treacysenniscorthy (who made all), conceding over two stone to that rival. That performance saw him earn an Irish mark of 150 but the British handicapper took no chances with him, giving him a 6lb rise to 156. That makes him the joint-second highest runner in the race and this 7-year-old can continue on his steep upward curve. He was found to have an overreach after his most recent run over fences so you can discount that effort. He’s a thorough stayer and I really like the chances of him finishing behind Paisley Park.

4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase

A race where lightly raced chasers have thrived in recent years, seven of the last ten winners had nine or less starts over fences while last years 1-2 only had thirteen chase starts between them.

I advised everyone to back SIMPLY THE BETTS if Imperial Aura performed well on Tuesday. He won comfortably with the front two pulling nine lengths clear of Hold The Note in 3^rd, confirming that the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day was a very good race. The times already suggested as much; Simply the Betts ran the final circuit twenty lengths quicker than Cepage, who won a handicap chase over the same on distance on the same day. He took a pull on the turn for home as subsequent winner On The Slopes took up the running, but Simply The Betts picked up really nicely after the 2^nd last, staying on really nicely up the hill. A 9lb rise now looks very lenient and he could be one to line up in next years Ryanair if he continues on this steep upward curve. He’s likely to be prominent (which suits in this race) and it’s hard to see him being far away at the business end.

4:50 – Mares’ Novice Hurdle

There are only four previous renewals to assess but the winners all have three things in common: They were French bred 5-year-olds trained by Willie Mullins.

This isn’t too surprising when you consider the proficiency of Willie in training mares and the fact that French breds tend to be quite precious.

DOLCITA fits the bill and has shown a fair amount on her two starts in Ireland. She bolted up in a maiden hurdle at Tramore; the 3^rd won her next star while the 4^th was 2^nd next time out. Interestingly, this was the same race that Laurina made her Irish debut in and, like her, Dolcita is owned by Sullivan bloodstock; they’ve won this race for the last two years and did not have runners in either of the first two renewals. She was actually the ante-post favourite for this race on the back of her maiden victory.

She then lined up for the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle. Seemingly the unfancied one of the Mullins trio, she drifted significantly in the market but ran a great race to be 3^rd, just three lengths behind Minella Melody and half a length behind COLREEVY. Considering she was conceding experience to those rivals, this was an encouraging effort. She also made a few jumping errors at crucial stages but that experience should’ve done her a world of good.

MINELLA MELODY looks a stayer at this trip and may find this too sharp a test but she does warrant plenty of respect. She represents the same connections as Honeysuckle who would’ve surely won this race last year if she turned up. She deserves her place at the top of the market on what she’s achieved so far.

In truth, this is a very open race and you can build a case for many but I’ll take a chance on Dolcita.

5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir

I backed KILFILUM CROSS a few weeks back following his 2^nd at Kempton. He’s 1lb lower than when finishing 2^nd to Any Second Now in last year’s renewal; that looks like good form now, with the Ted Walsh trained winner emerging as a leading Grand National challenger while a host of runners down the field have won subsequently. That was only his 2^nd run for Henry Oliver and just his 4^th run over fences so it was a very impressive effort to run so well in such a competitive handicap. It’s worth noting that six of the last eleven winners of this race had won or placed at a previous festival while the last five winners had not won earlier in the season – Kilfilum Cross fits both of those trends.

While he hasn’t been at his best this season, he ran well on his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate trip and there were excuses for his two below par efforts this term. His Kempton run was a welcome return to form and the 1lb drop in the weights for that effort seems generous. He’s been lightly raced for a 9-year-old with just 13 starts under rules (9 over fences) to his name so he still has potential to improve. Regular rider, Dave Crosse, reportedly said he’s the best horse he’s sat on and that he’s a 150+ horse in the making.

LE BREUIL warrants plenty of respect given his win in last year’s National Hunt Chase. Jamie Codd renews the winning partnership and he’s won four of the last eleven renewals of this race. This is always a competitive race but he’d be my bet if I hadn’t already backed Kilfilum Cross.

CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM caught the eye when staying on into 3^rd in the Scilly Isles. His jumping has left a lot to be desired on his three starts over fences to date; his last run was a small step in the right direction but he’ll need to be even better in a big field with 21 fences to negotiate. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up and he’s got the right man onboard in Derek O’Connor so improvement isn’t out of the question.

BOB MAHLER represents the jockey/trainer combination that won with Missed Approach in 2018. Liked Missed Approach, he was last seen running in the Edinburgh National (Bob Mahler 1^st, Missed Approach was 2^nd in 2018) so this has been a tried and tested route. He wears blinkers for the first-time and has winning form at Cheltenham but only one winner in the last seventeen renewals won on their most recent start.

Ballymore: Envoi Allen 4/6

RSA: Minella Indo 7/2

Coral Cup: Protektorat 14/1 EW

Champion Chase: Defi Du Seuil 5/4

Cross Country: Tiger Roll 10/11

Boodles/Fred Winter: Night Edition 22/1 EW

Champion Bumper: Queens Brook 9/1 EW

1:30 – Ballymore Novice Hurdle

Gordon Elliott gave everyone a scare when he openly admitted to considering the Supreme for his star novice ENVOI ALLEN. Luckily for many ante-post punters, he runs here instead and he has outstanding claims. Seven from seven under rules including a three grade 1’s (two over hurdles and one in bumpers), his form has received numerous boosts. He beat leading Martin Pipe fancy, Front View on his hurdles debut before winning the Royal Bond; he had subsequent grade 1 winner Abacadabras in 2^nd with Irish Champion hurdle runner-up Darver Star back in 3^rd. Those two performed very well in the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle respectively; his form continues to get stronger.

Stepped up to 2m4f in the Lawlor’s of Naas, he won comfortably enough but some have criticised that performance, stating that he didn’t pull away in the style of a horse that fully relishes the intermediate trip, but it’s important to remember that Naas has a stiff uphill finish and not many draw clear up that hill. He’s never been a horse to win by wide margins but he always looks in control and he’s a very efficient jumper. His Champion Bumper victory has worked out well and it proved his ability to handle the track and the travel involved. He’s a short price but he deserves to be.

THE BIG BREAKAWAY and THE BIG BREAKAWAY are both lovely types and deserve to take a chance in a race of this nature. This represents a big step up in class for both and I worry that this might come too soon in their careers. They’ll be top chasing prospects for next term.

SPORTING JOHN has been brought along steadily by Phillip Hobbs but he’d always shown a high level of ability. He beat Harry Senior on debut over two miles (who already had a run under his belt) with a further three next time out winners in behind. He still had plenty of work to do approaching the last (traded at 100 in running) but he powered home once Barry Geraghty got serious with him. He won another race at Exeter before stepping up in class and distance at Ascot. He ran out a ready winner that, beating the useful Pipesmoker with Master Debonair failing to stay the trip. He looks the chief danger to the favourite.

VERDICT: ENVOI ALLEN

2:10 – RSA Novice Chase

Traditionally a trial for future Gold Cup contenders, the last 18 winners have contested a graded chase while 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 3 runs over fences; you need a horse that’s tough and battle hardened. Despite their only being ten runners, there is plenty of depth to this contest.

The one I can’t have at the head of the market is CHAMP. He’s a very inconsistent jumper – brilliant at times but equally poor on occasion which was demonstrated when he fell in the Dipper. He just appears to lose concentration which you can’t afford to do at the highest level. He reminds me a bit of Might Bite – very talented by equally quirky. Nicky was able to get another run into Might Bite after he fell in the Kauto Star but he was unable to do the same with Champ as the meeting at Kelso he was intended to run at was abandoned.

MINELLA INDO defied the trends to win the Albert Bartlett as a lightly raced maiden. The manner of that win was nothing short of spectacular; he was keen throughout the gruelling contest but still managed to win in the style of a very good horse. He’s had another light campaign to this point with just two starts over fences to his name; beaten by Laurina on his chase debut over an inadequate trip, he put in a nice round of jumping to beat subsequent grade 3 winner Captain CJ on his most recent outing. He has to improve on what he’s shown over fences but I’m struggling to shake the memory of last year’s Albert Bartlett and the drastic improvement he showed. He looks like a typical RSA winner and Henry De Bromhead will have schooled him a ton at home.

ALLAHO twice finished behind Minella Indo in Grade 1 novice hurdles last term and I thought he would stand a better chance in the Marsh. He was very impressive on his last start over 2m5f, going enthusiastically from the front. For my mind, he has something to find with Minella Indo and I’m not sure he’ll relish this test at this stage of his chasing career.

COPPERHEAD’s rapid improvement culminated in an impressive win in the Reynoldstown on heavy ground. In an attritional affair, he beat Two For Gold by 17 lengths; fancied pair Pym and Sam Brown both pulled up having never looked comfortable which does dent the form to a certain extent. Regardless, it was hard not to be impressed with him that day and he looks fully equipped to deal with a test like the RSA. A good jumper with plenty of experience, he looks to have a good chance of being the 3^rd horse in 9 years to complete the Reynoldstown/RSA double. If there is a concern, it would be that his last race might’ve taken a lot out of him.

It’s interesting that Robbie Power rides SLATE HOUSE as opposed to Copperhead. In an interview, puppy seemed to imply that he had the choice but the vibes about the Kauto Star winner were stronger. He has plenty of talent, but he does put in some poor jumps and he’s coming off the back of a brutal race in the Cotswold Chase.

PYM was never at the races when pulling up in the Reynoldstown where the heavy ground counted against him. Prior to that, he’d looked progressive over fences and his defeat of Imperial Aura marked him down as a promising stayer. Usually a good jumper, he can run well at a price for all that he lacks the class of some of his rivals (Perhaps I’m just trying to justify my failed ante-post bet with this one!)

EASY GAME is another I backed ante-post following his narrow defeat to Faugheen in the Flogas. I did so on the belief that, if he did run here, he’d probably be his stable’s sole representative so Allaho’s inclusion does concern me. He’s untested at the trip but the Flogas has provided four RSA winners in the last eleven years. Two of Willie’s four RSA winners ran in the Flogas; Florida Pearl in 1998 and Cooldine in 2009 both completed the double. With the race looking strong, I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him at his current price of 10/1 and I don’t hold out much hope for my ante-post bet.

VERDICT: MINELLA INDO

2:50 – Coral Cup

One of the toughest races of the week, only one of the last ten winners went off shorter than 10/1 (Aux Ptits Soins in 2015, 9/1). No first season novice has ever won the race and we’ve generally seen class prevail here; ten of the last eleven winners went on to contest a grade 1 or grade 2 on their next start.

JP McManus looks to hold a leading chance with DAME DE COMPAGNIE, BIRCHDALE and recent purchase ALFA MIX. They have differing profiles and they all have a chance but I’m prepared to look elsewhere.

PROTEKTORAT looks to hold a leading chance. A 5-year-old French bred with just 8 starts over hurdles, he fits the profile of a typical winner. French breds have a great record in the race; they’ve won five of the last ten renewals, four of which were aged five or six which highlights their precocious nature. Furthermore, 31% of 5-year-old runners have won or placed in the last decade.

He’s run twice at Cheltenham (eight of the last ten winners had run at Cheltenham before). He beat Imperial Alcazar and Welsh Saint in a listed race, both of whom won on their next run. Last seen at Trials Day finishing 3^rd to leading Albert Bartlett contender Harry Senior (giving him 5lbs). He was a tad unlucky that day as he found himself behind a wall of horses as the front few kicked for home. Still, he’s proven himself in graded company and still has potential to improve with just 8 hurdle starts to his name.

A powerful traveller that jumps well, a test like the Coral Cup should suit him perfectly. Owner John Hales tasted success in this race with Aux Ptits Soins in 2015 and the Skelton’s have proven themselves in readying one for a big handicap at the Festival.

VERDICT: PROTEKTORAT EW

3:30 – Champion Chase

The absence of Altior is a sad one – this was shaping up to be the best race of the festival but National Hunt racing has a habit of depriving us of the clashes we most want to see.

DEFI DU SEUIL is likely to be a short price in Altior’s absence. His JLT win over Lostintranslation has worked out well and he’s six from eight at Cheltenham. I doubted his jumping last season but he’s come on leaps and bounds in that department this term. His new found slickness over an obstacle has allowed him to become a top-class two-mile chaser. He won the Tingle Creek with a great leap at the last before beating Un De Sceuax again in the Clarence House; the latter was a steadily run affair but the turn of foot he showed between the final two flights was seriously impressive. In a small field that lacks a certain pace angle, that acceleration could prove the difference.

CHACUN POUR SOI beat Defi at Punchestown on just his second start for Willie Mullins. I wouldn’t be in a rush to take that form literally given that Defi had a long season and probably wasn’t at his best that day. Both have improved that clash and CPS still has plenty of scope to keep progressing given that this will be just his fifth start for Willie. His defeat of Min in the Dublin Chase is the best two-mile form on offer this season (on times) but there is a doubt about his ability to handle Cheltenham given that he’s never been here.

Tactics could be key here – I believe that CPS’s best chance of winning is to make all. He’s a good jumper and with no clear pace angle, it gives him an opportunity to set the fractions.

Paul Nicholls is represented by POLITOLOGUE and DYNAMTIE DOLLARS. The former has finished 4^th and 2^nd in the last two renewals of this race but he was beaten convincingly by Defi when last seen in the Tingle Creek. Dynamite Dollars made a very encouraging reappearance behind Altior in the Game Spirit. He faded late on but showed up well for a long way and he’s entitled to improve significantly for that. He was forced into making the pace last time out when BUN DORAN fell early on – he could go from the front here but he’s far from certain to. The concerns with DD would be the potential bounce factor and the fact that he was beaten on his two runs at Cheltenham. He remains with plenty of potential but he could be one for the Celebration Chase at Sandown later in the year.

SCEAU ROYAL is a regular in these races. A powerful traveller, he often runs well but finds one or two too good at the highest level.

VERDICT: DEFI DU SEUIL

4:10 – Cross Country

TIGER ROLL bid for his 5^th Cheltenham Festival win and a hat-trick of victories in the Cross Country. He made a very encouraging reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle, where he travelled well for a long way before tiring late on. Gordon Elliott made no secret that he was not fully tuned up for that effort but he was understandably delighted with that run and it was great to see him travel with zest and enthusiasm. There’s very little to say about him that hasn’t already been said – he’s a legend of a horse and a repeat of last years dominant display would be more than enough to win this again.

EASYSLAND is a new and worthy challenger. He’s won every start in this discipline in which he’s completed (he did fall a couple of times early into his cross-country career). Crucially, he’s also won at Cheltenham; only 3 winners of this had not previously run at the course. He was a good winner here in December, defying a mark of 139 to win comfortably. He’s had a prep run since then and has been notably been purchased by JP McManus; he’s won the race 6 times and has notoriously targeted this race. It would be fair to say that he’s the toughest rival that Tiger Roll has faced in this race, but he is only a 6-year-old and he may be one for the future (I’d be half tempted to bet on him winning this in 2021!)

This looks to be a match between the front two in the market.

VERDICT: TIGER ROLL

4:50 – Boodles (Fred Winter) Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Until Band of Outlaws victory last season, there hadn’t been a winning favourite since 2010. In that time, six of the eight winners returned at price of 25/1 or greater. Juvenile’s can improve dramatically throughout the season so this is a tough race to gauge. Keep to small stakes.

A few trends to note: 10/15 had three starts over hurdles, only 2/10 had won more than once and 7/15 had raced against their elders.

It’s no surprise to see JP McManus with a strong hand in a Cheltenham handicap. ARAMAX and MICK PASTOR are nice types but they’ve been well found in the market so I’m prepared to look elsewhere.

Gordon Elliott has talked up the chances of TRONADOR during the preview evening circuit which is interesting considering he also has Aramax, RECENT REVELATIONS, GEALACH & Saint D’OROUX. Elliott has a superb record in this race but it’s unusual to see him with so many in this year’s renewal. He’s only had twelve runners in the last nine years – make of that what you will.

I quite like the chances of NIGHT EDITION at a decent price. He made an encouraging debut for David Pipe when 4^th at Taunton behind the re-opposing BLACKO and ZOFFEE. He was conceding experience to both of those rivals and he did show up well for a long way; he wasn’t given a hard time once he was beaten and it left plenty to work on.

Stepped up to grade 2 company on his next start on Trials Day, he ran a superb race to finish 2^nd to the more experienced GALAHAD QUEST. It was encouraging to see him stay on well up the hill and it was a massive step up on his hurdles debut. It wasn’t a strong Triumph trial but the 4^th place horse, Monte Cristo, did win on his next run to give the form some substance.

Night Edition broke his maiden against his elders at Ludlow in cosy fashion. Given a more prominent ride, he travelled best throughout and always looked in control. Tom Scudamore never had to ask his mount for a serious effort as he cruised to the lead on the bridle. The half length margin of victory definitely understated his dominance.

He’s clearly progressing nicely and he boosts all important Cheltenham form. French breds have a good record in this race and he is well bred; by Authorized out of listed winner on the flat who’s a half-sister to Melon. 133 is a fair mark; horses rated 124-134 have won 13 of the last 15 winners of this race. David Pipe won this in 2007 with Gaspara and he’s had a further four placed from just 13 runners in the race.

VERDICT: NIGHT EDITION EW

5:30 – Champion Bumper

APPRECIATE IT heads the market after winning a grade 2 at the Dublin Racing Festival. That was a seriously impressive performance over what looked like a stacked field (although his main market rival, Eric Bloodaxe, was effectively pulled up after reportedly feeling lame). Willie Mullins has a terrific record in this race; he’s won it nine-times and managed a 1-2-3-5 in 2018. It’s worth considering that when he’s had multiple runners in the race, it’s paid to look beyond the shortest in the betting: Relegate and Briar Hill were 25/1 (2018 & 2013) while Champagne Fever was 16/1 – FERNY FOLLOW and FIVE BAR BRIAN are his other representatives this year.

Appreciate It deserves to be favourite but he’s a very short price – on that basis, I’m happy to take him on.

QUEENS BROOK looked very good when winning at Gowran Park on heavy ground. She powered clear at the finish in very testing conditions and reports about her have been glowing. Jamie Codd is very sweet on her and Gordon Elliott has compared her to previous Champion Bumper winner, Fayonagh, saying that “On homework, you’d say this mare is a nicer mare (than Fayonagh)”. Elliott is very selective in sending horses here; he’s only ran three in as many years, resulting in two winners and a fourth. Clearly, he only sends his best and Jamie Codd has ridden both of his winners. When asked about his best chance of the week, Jamie responded by saying: “All three have chances… but I’m really looking forward to Queens Brook and finding out how good she is”. Soft ground is a big help and she can go very well.

David Pipe has two live chances with ISRAEL CHAMP and PANIC ATTACK. The former has won two listed bumpers and is only rated 1lb lower than Appreciate It. He also boats winning form at Cheltenham so he looks a solid proposition. Panic Attack bolted up in a listed mares bumper at Market Rasen on debut when trained by Willie Mullins. I was there that day and you couldn’t help but be impressed by the performance considering her rivals had already displayed a good level of form. The fact that the 1-2 in that race were both Irish trained isn’t surprising given they normally excel in bumpers; 20 of the 27 winners of the Champion Bumper were trained in Ireland.

THE GLANCING QUEEN is running in the race for the 2^nd time having finished 5^th in last years renewal. She’s been off the track since winning the grade 2 mares’ bumper at Aintree and this is a good option for her as they’ll be keen to retain her novice status for next season. Lat years renewal has worked out extremely well so she isn’t without a chance at a big price, if returning at peak form.

VERDICT: QUEENS BROOK EW

Supreme: Fiddlerontheroof 7/1 EW

Arkle: Cash Back 7/1 EW

Ultima: Discorama 8/1 EW (Advised at 20/1 EW ante-post)

Champion Hurdle: Supasundae 12/1 EW (Advised at 33/1 EW ante-post)

Mares Hurdle: Benie Des Dieux 4/6

Novice Handicap Chase: Imperial Aura 5/1

National Hunt Chase: Lord Du Mesnil 7/1 EW (Advised at 25/1 EW ante-post)

1:30 – Supreme Novice Hurdle

Here it is – the moment we’ve all been waiting for! 4 days. 28 races. The pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The Cheltenham Festival begins now.

The Supreme is traditionally run at a very strong pace and can represent a very different test compared to some of the novice hurdles the contenders will have been competing in throughout the season. You need a horse with a high cruising speed, plenty of stamina and the ability to jump fluently at pace.

SHISHKIN has looked mightily impressive in his three (completed) starts under rules; 1 in a bumper and 2 over hurdles. After falling at the 2^nd on hurdling debut (he was badly hampered so I would not hold that F against him), he showed an electric turn of foot on his next start at Newbury before winning the Sidney Banks, ahead of the 139-rated Shan Blue. There’s no doubting his talent but I just can’t have him at the prices; his lack of solid graded form concerns me and it wouldn’t be the first time a future champion trained by Nicky Henderson failed to win here. Since 1993, the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Binocular & Darlan were all beaten – only Altior managed to win.  

ASTERION FORLONGE, like Shishkin, is owned by the Donnelly’s. Once seen as a stayer by Willie Mullins, he’s two from two over the minimum trip with his last victory coming in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma at the Dublin Racing Festival, routing the highly touted Easywork. Klassical Dream, Vautour and Champagne Fever all won the Supreme for Willie after winning the Chanelle Pharma so it’s a tried and tested route to victory. Given his form and connections, I believe he should be favourite. He’s likely to go from the front, using his assured stamina to make this a test for his rivals.

The last 11 winners had a minimum of 4 runs over hurdles before lining up here, which creates a slight doubt over the Donnelly runners. ABACADABRAS boasts a grade 1 win & plenty of experience. He previously beat Latest Exhibition (subsequent grade 1 winner) and finished 2^nd to the imperious Envoi Allen. He was my idea of the winner for a while, but two major doubts crept in: his jumping can leave a lot to be desired and his stamina will probably be stretched by this race on soft ground; he’s a smooth traveller but I can see him failing to get up the hill in a similar fashion to last season’s Champion Bumper.

There’s a lot to like about FIDDLERONTHEROOF. The Tolworth winner possesses plenty of experience as well as grade 1 form. The last 3 Tolworth winners to run in the Supreme have a record of 141. Some have crabbed the form of his Tolworth win after the runner up, Jeremys Flame, was tailed off on her next start in handicap company; however, she was found to be lame post-race and it’s important to note that she was ridden to place in the Tolworth. The way Fiddlerontheroof powered up the hill in testing ground was impressive and it was a rare example if a horse quickening in those condtions. He’ll appreciate the soft ground and will certainly appreciate a stamina test at the trip. I do think he lacks a bit of tactical speed but I can see him running very well and staying on at the finish when others have cried enough.

CHANTRY HOUSE is an exciting prospect. His comfortable defeat of EDWARDSTONE in a bumper reads well and he’s been impressive in his two hurdle starts to date; I don’t think he has the necessary experience to win this. Similar comments apply to CAPTAIN GUINNESS who’s a headstrong individual. A strong pace could help him settle but he’ll need to if he’s to feature prominently here.

ELIXIR D’AINAY isn’t without a chance at a big price; 2^nd to Envoi Allen in the Lawlor’s of Naas, he was too keen over 2m6f at the Dublin Racing Festival so the step back in trip looks sensible.

VERDICT: FIDDLERONTHEROOF EW

2:10 – Arkle Novice Chase

There is a lot of early pace on here, with multiple runners having made all in previous runs over fences.

Perhaps the one that’s most likely to lead is CASH BACK. An impressive winner of two novice chases, his performance at Naas was particularly eye-catching; he powered away in the closing stages to rout a decent field and Danny Mullins struggled to pull him up after the line. Naas has a stiff uphill finish so that offers encouragement that he’ll handle the infamous Cheltenham hill. He was beaten by Notebook by just ¾ L in the Irish Arkle but that was just his 3^rd start over fences where as his Notebook was having his 4^th and had already won a grade 1 that season. Willie has won 4 of the last 5 renewals of this race and all of those winners were French bred; he recently said that Cash Back reminds him of the “Iron Horse”, Un De Sceaux and the soft ground will be in his favour. There’s a lot to like.

NOTEBOOK is certainly the right favourite. A dual grade 1 winner over fences, he’s taken his form to the next level since switching to the larger obstacles and has beaten both his main market rivals that hail from Ireland. He can play up in the preliminaries and I’m sure the De Bromhead team will be taking precautions to prevent a repeat of his antics at Leopardstown (he’ll reportedly wear earplugs and has the option of wearing a hood in the parade ring). Settling a horse like him in the atmosphere of Cheltenham is easier said than done and you would have to be concerned if he became unruly before the race, although you can argue that it didn’t stop him winning at the Dublin Racing Festival.

FAKIR D’DOUDARIES has impressed with his slick jumping this term and he is already a grade 1 winner over fences, having won the Drinmore after Samcro’s dramatic late fall. He was subsequently defeated by Notebook when he was arguably unlucky; he was more patiently ridden than usual and Mark Walsh briefly lost an iron approaching the last. His jumping will be an asset and supporters will be hoping for a more positive ride but he no longer has a 7lb pull at the weights for being a 5-year-old. He’s apparently been working very well at home and he was a solid 4^th in last year’s supreme but he does have something to find with the favourite.

A good 4^th in last year’s Ballymore (four of the last twelve Arkle winners ran in the Ballymore previously) BREWIN’UPASTORM will appreciate a strong pace to aim at but his jumping will need to improve to feature and I’m concerned by his lack of graded chasing experience.

GLOBAL CITIZEN jumped well from the front at Kempton to win the Wayward Lad but he won’t get an easy lead here and he’s yet to prove his effectiveness on an undulating track.

ESPRIT DU LARGE is a grade 1 winner over fences and has improved with each run; his form received a boost when ROUGE VIF won the Kingmaker. I’m not convinced by the strength of the graded form in Britain.

VERDICT: CASH BACK EW

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase

Usually a fiercely run affair, stamina is essential and only 1 of the last 11 winners did not run at a previous festival.

DISCORAMA has twice finished 2nd at Cheltenham; in the Martin Pipe (2018) & the National Hunt Chase (2019). That effort two years ago looks good now considering he finished ahead of Early Doors & Sire Du Berlais (3rd & 4th respectively) who both went on to win at Cheltenham last season.

He backed up last year’s festival run with a respectable 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. He was comfortably beaten by Delta Work that day but there was a lot to like about the way he stayed on under pressure, earmarking him as a staying chaser to follow.

On his seasonal reappearance, he ran a sound race behind (former) leading National Hunt Chase fancy, Champagne Classic, who had the fitness edge having run earlier in the season. He ran well enough in the Troytown on his next run (staying on for 8th) before finishing a distance by Easywork back over hurdlers; he didn’t jump well that day and the 2m4f trip was definitely on the sharp side.

Following that run, Paul Nolan sent him for a wind operation and he hasn’t been seen on the track since; seeing the infamous w1 on the Cheltenham racecard will undoubtedly attract attention and it would be no shock if it were to help unlock some improvement. He also sports a first-time tongue tie – seven of the last eight winners of this race wore headgear and first-time headgear has often proved a catalyst to success at the Festival.

The break between runs is not a concern; his record when running after a break greater than 6 weeks is: 11F222; he fell at the last when challenging the late Ballyward in a Grade 3 at Naas, with Chris’s Dream & Champagne Classic 10 lengths behind him when he departed.

Discorama is only a 7-year-old with just 7 chase starts to his name so he’s far from exposed and this strong test of stamina will suit him perfectly. He’s considered by connections to be a future Grand National horse and it would be no surprise to see him line up at Aintree in 2021.

The predicted soft ground will also be in his favour as he missed the Irish National on account of the sound surface.

The Irish don’t have the greatest record in this race (0/24 since 2006) but he’s been allowed in on his Irish mark and I expect him to run a big race.

KILDISART looks to have a decent chance. 4^th in last years JLT, he won impressively off 148 at Aintree last season and he made a welcome return to form last time out at Kempton. 150 is a fair mark and the application of first time cheekpieces adds further intrigue.

At a bigger price, BIG RIVER is worth considering. A staying on 4^th in this race last year, he made a welcome return to form when winning at Kelso and he’s only 1lb higher than 12 months ago. Last year’s winner, Beware the Bear, was 4^th in the previous renewal and returning horses have a good record in this race.

VERDICT: DISCORAMA EW

3:30 – Champion Hurdle

One of the most open Champion Hurdles in history. You can make a reasonable case for plenty in the line-up but this isn’t a race to get too involved in. 

Long term followers of mine will know that I’ve been banging the SUPASUNDAE drum since January and I haven’t seen anything to discourage me. His run in the Irish Champion Hurdle was better than I could’ve hoped for; he’s a notoriously stuffy horse that doesn’t come right until the Spring so it was a superb effort to finish 4^th at the Dublin Racing Festival, just 5 lengths behind Honeysuckle.

Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power have been glowing in their praise of him since that’s run and he’s entitled to improve significantly for that as he’s never been one to perform that well on his first run of the season.

Winner of the Coral Cup in 2017, he’s raced in 14 consecutive grade 1’s since then – winning 3 (including two over 2 miles, an irish champion hurdle + punchestown champion hurdle & won the Aintree hurdle ahead of Bueveur D’Air last season) and only finishing outside the front 3 on two occasions.

In a race lacking quality, he’s a proven grade 1 performer who’s won at Cheltenham and he should give his running. There hasn’t been a 10-year-old winner since 1981 but in a year that’s the furthest thing from vintage, I can see that stat being broken.

He’s versatile in regards to ground but the slower surface will probably benefit him as it will slow the others down. The presence of Petit Mouchoir, Cornerstone Lad & Not So Sleepy will ensure a strong pace for him to aim at which will bring his stamina into play. He won’t cruise up on the bridle but he’ll certainly be staying on at the finish.

VERDICT: SUPASUNDAE EW

4:10 – Mares Hurdle

The clash of two superstars: Benie Des Dieux vs Honeysuckle. What a race we have on our hands!

The fact that both would’ve had a leading chance in the Champion Hurdle shows the strength of the mares and the dire straits of the 2-mile hurdle division.

I’m on team BENIE DES DIEUX. Since joining Willie Mullins, she’s won 8 of her 9 starts (including the 2018 Mares Hurdle and three other grade 1’s) with her only ‘defeat’ coming in this race last year when she looked sure to run out a comfortable winner but for a final flight fall. She was lauded as a huge danger to Paisley Park when winning the Galmoy on her last start but the performance that stands out to me came at Auteuil where she faced De Bon Couer who was a superstar in France. She had won 13 of her 15 starts and was sent off a 4/6 favourite to win the French Champion Hurdle for the 2^nd time. Benie beat her comfortably by 6.5 lengths.

That performance confirmed that we’re dealing with a mare of extreme quality. She’s won over a variety of trips on ground varying from good to heavy; she’s very versatile and we’re yet to see a chink in her armour.

Willie has won nine of the twelve renewals of this race (would’ve been ten but for Benie’s fall last season). His total record in this race reads: 21 runners – 9 wins & 5 placed. A superstar mare trained by the master is hard to oppose.

HONEYSUCKLE is, in her own right, a fantastic mare. Seven from seven under rules including three grade 1’s, her win in the Irish Champion Hurdle left many hoping to see her in the feature race on Tuesday rather than this contest. She isn’t the slickest over her obstacles but defied that impairment to beat the boys over two miles. There’s little doubt that two and a half miles is her optimum trip and she’s proven to be versatile in terms of underfoot conditions. She’s a worthy rival to Benie and this promises to be a fantastic clash.

Defending champion ROKSANA looks to be playing for place money but I do think she’ll get third ahead of STORMY IRELAND; she’ll run a bold race from the front but I don’t think the she’s suited by the trip at Cheltenham; she was labouring in 4^th when Benie fell last year and was the only one not to be hampered so her proximity to Roksana flattered her.

VERDICT: BENIE DES DIEUX (In doubles/treble with Tiger Roll & Paisley Park)

4:50 – Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap Chase

With just 7lbs separating the top and bottom weight in this race last year – you will struggle to find a more compressed handicap all season!

11 of the last 12 winners had run no more than 4 times over fences while 14 of the last 15 winners hadn’t won more than twice over fences; you’re looking for one that hasn’t shown their hand and has the potential to progress beyond handicaps.

IMPERIAL AURA looks to have an excellent chance. A facile winner of a novice chase at odds of 1/25, he then finished a solid 2^nd to the useful Pym over an extended 3m1f. He travelled very powerfully throughout but was outstayed by the RSA hopeful. After missing an intended engagement at Huntingdon (the meeting was abandoned), Kim Bailey was at odds to get a 3^rd chase start into him to ensure he qualified for this race.

He turned up on Trials Day at a time when the Kim Bailey yard were under a cloud; they had just 1 winner from 27 runners in the previous month and the runners were on the easy list following a string of disappointing performances.

Alas, Imperial Aura opened as a 5/2 favourite for the competitive Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase. He drifted alarmingly before the off to 5/1, indicating that he wasn’t expected to win; Kim Bailey said in a recent interview that they “weren’t coming here thinking they’d win”. Despite this, he ran a superb race to finish 2^nd behind the rapidly progressive Simply The Betts. The pair pulled 11 lengths clear of 3^rd placed On The Slopes who bolted up on his next start and is now being aimed at the Grand Annual.

The time of that race was very good (Simply The Betts ran the final circuit 20 lengths quicker than Cepage, who won a handicap over the same distance on the same day) and this race is generally a very strong piece of form; it has provided three of the last seven winners of the Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap and last year’s renewal produced a JLT 4^th (Kildisart) and the 3^rd in the Plate (Spritofthegames)

If Imperial Aura does run well, be sure to back SIMPLY THE BETTS for the Plate!

VERDICT: IMPERIAL AURA

5:30 – National Hunt Chase

Given the demands this race places on a novice, it’s not surprising that experience often comes to the fore; the last 10 winners averaged 7.1 chase starts between them.

I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on LORD DU MESNIL; you’ll struggle to find a more experienced novice chaser in training. He’s had 10 chase starts in Britain and 6 in France but he’s only just started to fulfil his potential. Starting the season on a mark of 115, he hasn’t been out of the first two in his 6 runs this campaign. He won both the Tommy Whittle and the Last Fling; winning two very competitive handicaps at Haydock within 9 days is an impressive feat. Described as a “Future Grand National horse” by connections, he loves soft ground as is a very efficient jumper. An official rating of 153 makes him the highest rated horse in the race, for all he’s had more chances to show his ability than the others; runners rated 150+ are 4/10 in the last 9 years.

Richard Hobson is in superb form; just three of his twelve runners since the start of February have finished outside the front two, including four wins. Sam Waley-Cohen is a great jockey booking (he won the race in 2009 on Tricky Trickster)

The bulk of the ante-post discussion surrounded Champagne Classic and CAREFULLY SELECTED; I was firmly in the champagne camp and his absence was undoubtedly a blow to many ante-post punters. Carefully Selected is a classy horse who’s been aimed at this race all season after finishing 3^rd in a grade 1 novice hurdle over 3 miles at the end of last season. Sent off at odds on for his 3 chase starts to date, his jumping has left a lot to be desired which greatly concerns me given the demands of the National Hunt Chase.  

SPRINGFIELD FOX is a superb jumper and deserves to take his chance here after two decisive handicap victories.

It’s always important to consider the mounts of Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor. The former rides RAVENHILL for Gordon Elliott. He does have plenty of chase experience but he did fall when last seen over three months ago; no last time out faller has won this race in the last 30 years.

FORZA MILAN has the services of Derek O’Connor. Formerly with Jonjo O’Neill, he was last seen finishing behind Carefully Selected at Naas. He looks like he’ll relish a strong test of stamina and isn’t without a chance.

VERDICT: LORD DU MESNIL EW