Named after his late father, it’s no surprise that Nicky Henderson likes to target this race. He’s already won it twice and WHATSWRONGWITHYOU looks to have a decent chance of giving him a third victory in the race.

Sent off just 8/1 for this race last season, he didn’t have a favourable trip that day having been held up in race that favoured those that were up with the pace. As the action unfolded after the 3^rd last, Whatswrongwithyou (WWWY) was still back in 12^th – he made some headway on the turn for home but he didn’t have a chance of closing on the leading group; he eventually finished 7^th, 10 lengths behind Croco Bay.

Plenty of encouragement can be taken from that effort; he was a novice with just three chase starts to his name when he ran in the race last season and those runs came in field sizes of four, three and three. 13 of the last 15 winners had run at a previous festival while 8 of the last 14 winners had run in the Grand Annual before, including 4 of the last 5. WWWY will certainly be wiser to the task this time around.

After having wind surgery in the summer, WWWY made his seasonal reappearance in a competitive handicap chase at Newbury that was won by Magic Saint, with subsequent Desert Orchid winner, Bun Doran, back in 2^nd. He was in with every chance approaching the third from home (traded at 2/1 in running) but he sprawled on landing, ending his race on the spot.

His last run was over 2m4f in heavy ground at Chepstow. He’s always been a keen going type and the conditions of that race seemed to stretch his stamina. It was encouraging to see him travel into the race well but you could see that the tank was empty as he entered the final few furlongs; his head carriage became awkward and he put in a tired leap at the last.

Dropped 3lbs for his last run, he’s now rated 139 which is 6lbs lower than when running in this race last season. We haven’t seen him since December but the last 5 winners of this race arrived after a break.

He’s been lightly raced for a 9-year-old, with just 15 starts under rules and only 7 over fences; only two winners of the race this century had more than 12 chase starts so the unexposed types tend to come to the fore.

Nicky Henderson said “I’m sure he can win a decent prize” when talking about this horse in a stable tour at the beginning of the season – hopefully he can deliver that here.

BACK WHATSWRONGWITHYOU for the GRAND ANNUAL @ 33/1 EW

Note: Trends can be a useful pointer to Cheltenham winners but it’s important to consider all stats in context. Always consider the difference between correlation and causality.

SHISHKIN – SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

Trend(s): The past 11 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles. Only 1 of the last 11 winners had no previous graded form.

A total of 177 horses have lined up for the Supreme in the last 11 renewals. Of those, 95 (54%) had less than 4 previous runs over hurdles – none of which have managed to win.

Just 1 of the front 6 in both the 2018 & 2019 renewals had less than 4 runs over hurdles; they made up 46% of the runners and it’s not as if they were unfancied – Getabird was the 7/4 favourite back in 2018, eventually finishing 11^th.

Therefore, it must be a concern to Shishkin supporters that he’s only raced 3 times over timber (and he didn’t get past the 2^nd obstacle on his first run) while fellow market leader, Asterion Forlonge, has only had two starts over hurdles.

On the other hand, Abacadabras & Fiddlerontheroof boast experience and graded form.

This does not mean that the Donnely duo can’t win but it is certainly something to bear in mind when assessing the festival opener.

CAREFULLY SELECTED – NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Trend: Only 1 winner in the last 10 years had 3 (or less) chase stars prior to contesting this race

Since becoming a level-weights contest in 2010, the National Hunt chase has been a happy hunting ground for relatively experienced novices. Heading into this race, the last 10 winners had an average of 7.1 starts over fences. The exact breakdown of prior runs over fences is as follows: 11,9,5,3,4,10,4,10,10,5. It’s no surprise that experience comes to the fore here given the questions this race poses to a novice and I doubt the two-furlong reduction in distance will change that.

This trend didn’t stop the ill-fated Ballyward going off as favourite for last year’s renewal. He and OK Corral, who was the 2^nd favourite, only had 2 chase starts to their name; both failed to complete.

However, supporters of Carefully Selected will be encouraged by 2013 winner, Back in Focus. Also trained by Willie Mullins, he had just 3 chase starts prior to his win at Cheltenham. In fact, he only had 6 starts under rules so it is possible for an inexperienced horse to win. He did already have a grade 2 and a grade 1 win over fences to his name so his class was undeniable.

Carefully Selected has won two grade 3’s over fences, finished 2^nd in the 2018 Champion Bumper and this race has been the target for some time.

But it’s hard not to be concerned by his lack of experience (just three chase starts) and his questionable jumping. I’m keen to take him on.

GREANETEEN – GRAND ANNUAL

Trend: All 119 runners in the last 15 renewals to have won a handicap chase earlier in the season were beaten (That fantastic snippet comes from Matt Tombs @thespieler)

It’s rare for a Grand Annual winner to have a ‘1’ in their recent form figures. In the 2-mile handicap chase division, it’s common for horses to come right in the Spring, leaving behind a trail of disappointing runs earlier in the season.

Greaneteen is a perfect 3/3 over fences, including two handicap victories (one novice handicap and one in open company). Those performances have resulted in him going up 16lbs in the handicap to a mark of 150.

Just two winners in the last ten years had won a race earlier in the season before lining up here. They were Bellvano (2012) & Alderwood (2013). The positive for Greaneteen supporters is that they were also novices. However, they had only won in novice company which will encourage supporters of Lisp and Chosen Mate.

This trend also calls into question the credentials of many other fancied runners: Éclair De Beaufeu, Magic Saint, On The Slopes and Capeland also carry the burden of previous handicap success.

AL BOUM PHOTO – GOLD CUP

Trend: There hasn’t been a back-to-back winner of the Gold Cup since Best Mate completed the hat-trick (2002-2004);

I decided to include this one as it’s bound to be mentioned in countless preview evenings up and down the land. Of the 4 trends I’ve highlighted in this piece, I believe this one has the least credence behind it. Let’s discuss.

Since Best Mate, there has only been eight attempts to defend the crown in the fifteen subsequent renewals; perhaps that’s partly down to the toll that winning a Gold Cup takes on a horse.

The record of those eight is: 22FP35P4 – It’s not surprising that Kauto Star, Denman & Long Run went the closest to winning 2 on the bounce. Of those that completed, only Bobs Worth (5^th) failed to finish in the top 4.

We’re dealing with a very small sample size here and it would be hasty to dismiss the claims of the reigning champion based on this information.

I believe that Al Boum Photo has an outstanding chance of winning the Gold Cup again; he hasn’t been overly raced throughout in his career (just 15 starts under rules) and he’s mirrored last year’s successful preparation; Henrietta Knight’s light handling of Best Mate ensured his longevity and it’s very encouraging that Willie is taking a similar approach.

He looked as good as ever when winning the Savills Chase on New Year’s Day and he looks to have a great chance of completing the double.

Ultima Handicap Chase – Discorama 20/1

Previous festival experience has proved pivotal to success here in recent years; just 1 winner from the last 11 had failed to run at a prior festival before lining up here.

Discorama has twice finished 2nd at Cheltenham; in the Martin Pipe (2018) & the National Hunt Chase (2019). That effort two years ago looks good now considering he finished ahead of Early Doors & Sire Du Berlais (3rd & 4th respectively) who both went on to win at Cheltenham last season.

He backed up last year’s festival run with a respectable 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. He was comfortably beaten by Delta Work that day but there was a lot to like about the way he stayed on under pressure, earmarking him as a staying chaser to follow.

On his seasonal reappearance, he ran a sound race behind leading National Hunt Chase fancy, Champagne Classic, who had the fitness edge having run earlier in the season. He ran well enough in the Troytown on his next run (staying on for 8th) before finishing a distance by Easywork back over hurdlers; he didn’t jump well that day and the 2m4f trip was definitely on the sharp side.

Following that run, Paul Nolan sent him for a wind operation and he hasn’t been seen on the track since; seeing the infamous w1 on the Cheltenham racecard will undoubtedly attract attention and it would be no shock if it were to help unlock some improvement.

The break between runs is not a concern; his record when running after a break greater than 6 weeks is: 11F222; he fell at the last when challenging the late Ballyward in a Grade 3 at Naas, with Chris’s Dream & Champagne Classic 10 lengths behind him when he departed.

Discorama is only a 7-year-old with only 7 chase starts to his name so he’s far from exposed and this strong test of stamina will suit him perfectly. He’s considered by connections to be a future Grand National horse and it would be no surprise to see him line up at Aintree in 2021.

The predicted soft ground will also be in his favour as he missed the Irish National on account of the sound surface.

The Irish don’t have the greatest record in this race but he’s been allowed in on his Irish mark and I expect him to run a big race.

 

County Hurdle – Aramon 16/1

Willie Mullins is a magical man, but he may have performed one of his greatest tricks yet in getting Aramon here off just 149; only 1 pound higher than his Irish mark.

If lining up here, he’ll make his handicap debut after 8 consecutive runs in Grade 1 company; it’s not as if he couldn’t compete either, as he managed to win and finish 2nd twice at the highest level.

Sent off just 8/1 for last years Supreme, he ran a far better race than a finishing position of 6th suggests. He made smooth headway to chase the leaders at 2 out (trading at a low of 3.0 in running) but he faded after the last on ground far slower than ideal for him.

After a below par seasonal reappearance in the Matheson (It’s been well documented that Willie’s have generally needed their first run), he ran a much better race in the Irish Champion Hurdle; I’d encourage everyone to re-watch that race as it was an eye-catching performance. Held up, he still hadn’t been asked for an effort at the 2nd last despite being 8th. Nursed along to close, he stayed on nicely to finish a fine 5th, only beaten 8.5 lengths.

Willie Mullins has performed very well in this race recently; in the last 10 years, he’s won it 4 times and had a further 7 finish in the first 4 from 27 runners.

Aramon’s path isn’t too dissimilar to Arctic Fire’s – the 2017 winner. He arrived here after running in 10 consecutive graded races, proving that class horses can win this race.

He also fits a few other trends for this race; 16 of the last 19 winners were either novices or second season hurdlers while 12 of the last 16 winners (including the last 4) began their career on the flat – Aramon ticks both of those boxes.

The long range weather forecast seems to indicate that the ground will quicken up throughout the week which will certainly help Aramon, who needs a quick surface to be at his best. He’s also likely to be suited by coming off the pace in a strongly run 2 miles.

He still has an entry for the Champion Hurdle but he’s unlikely to be good enough for that, even in an open year. This looks an ideal race for him and I imagine connections will be buoyed by avoiding an excessive rise in the weights.

 

Since becoming a level-weights contest in 2010, the National Hunt chase has been a happy hunting ground for relatively experienced novices.

Heading into this race, the last 10 winners had an average of 7.1 starts over fences. The exact breakdown of prior runs over fences is as follows: 11,9,5,3,4,10,4,10,10,5.

If you look at all runners in the past ten renewals, just 22 lined up with nine or more chase starts to their name. Of those, five have won and a further two placed while Atlanta Ablaze looked set to enhance that impressive record in last year’s renewal before falling at the 2^nd last.

It’s no surprise that experience comes to the fore here given the questions this race poses to a novice and I doubt that the two-furlong reduction in distance will change that.

If lining up, few (if any) will have more experience than LORD DU MESNIL.

With nine chase starts in Britain and six in France, it’s taken a while for Richard Hobson to bring out the best in this 7-year-old but he is of the opinion that he hadn’t fully acclimatised when joining his yard back in 2018.

However, a summer hiatus appeared to galvanise him and Richard Hobson described him as acting like a “different horse” upon returning from his break. Lord Du Mesnil duly rewarded his trainer’s patience with three consecutive wins after failing to win in his previous twenty-two attempts.

Those victories came in the space of a month. He began his winning streak in game fashion at Newcastle off 122 before winning the Tommy Whittle and the Last Fling at Haydock by a combined 22 lengths off marks of 127 & 137 respectively.

Those performances have earned him a new mark of 147 which more than entitles him to take his chance in a race of this nature. In fact, 6 of the last 10 winners arrived here with a lower rating than 147.

He’s clearly a thorough stayer and it’s interesting to note that his only defeats this season came at Stratford and Sedgefield; two sharp tracks that would not have suited him. Cheltenham would certainly be more up his street and he’d be one of the few in the line-up   with assured stamina having won over 3m4f last time out.

By Saints De Saints out of a Turgeon mare, he undoubtedly prefers soft ground and he would need slower than is typical for Cheltenham if he were to line up. He has plenty of options at present with the Grande Steeplechase de Paris being earmarked as a potential spring target which does leave a doubt over his festival participation.

However, his long-term target is the 2021 Grand National and the National Hunt Chase has become a standout trial for the Aintree showpiece in recent years.

Teaforthree won this race in 2012 before coming 3^rd in the 2013 Grand National while Cause of Causes won the 2016 renewal before coming 2^nd to One for Arthur in the 2017 National.

Tiger Roll won in 2017… you don’t need me to tell you about his antics since but he did beat the 2018 National Hunt Chase winner Rathvinden (3^rd) on route to recording his 2^nd consecutive National win. Last year’s winner, Le Breuil, is due to line-up at Aintree this year and looks to have a live chance.

With the allure of the Cheltenham Festival, the knowledge that this race has a superb recent record of producing National horses and the fact that this is the only season that Lord Du Mesnil will be able compete in novice company, I imagine that connections will be very keen to run here if the ground came up soft.

He currently holds an entry for the Grand National Trial at Haydock this weekend (15^th February). The ground is currently heavy there and plenty of rain is forecast which does cast some doubt about whether the meeting will go ahead. If it does and he takes his chance (which he’s far from certain to), he’d surely have a great chance on ground he loves at course he’s 2 from 2 at. Another good performance would further enhance his Festival claims.

He’s not the biggest but he’s a very slick and efficient jumper that could prove hard to pass if allowed to lead as he has done in his three previous starts.

20/1 NRNB is available with Skybet and Paddy Power; that seems more than reasonable given that he’ll only run if conditions are in his favour. If he lines up, I imagine he’ll go off a much shorter price.

ADVICE: BACK LORD DU MESNIL @ 20/1 EW NRNB