Monthly P/L: Practical for Punters; Turmoil for Tipsters

All tipsters worth their salt record their profit and loss; it’s a staple of the industry and rightly so. After all, the aim of a tipster is to make his/her followers a profit.

But as I’ve burrowed deeper into the world of Twitter Tipsters, I’ve noticed a worrying trend. Instead of focusing on the long run, there is an obsession with monthly performance.

“What’s wrong with that?” – I hear you ask.

Let me demonstrate with an example from the glorious world of Economics – the subject I studied at university.

Richard Thaler* was interested in how people would invest their money when he altered the way their returns were displayed.

He devised an experiment in which the subjects were given a choice of two retirement funds: a riskier one with higher expected returns or a safer one with lower expected returns; known as Fund A and Fund B respectively.

In one version, subjects were shown the returns of both options annually; in the other, they were shown the average return over a thirty-year horizon. The image below shows the graphs that were used in the experiment. Note that the data is exactly the same.

The key to this experiment is that Fund A is the “correct” choice as it yields greater returns. In a world where everyone makes perfectly logical decisions, Fund A would be chosen unanimously and the way in which the data is shown would make no impact. But that is not reality, as the experiment shows.

90% of the subjects that were shown the thirty-year distribution chose Fund A. In stark contrast, just 40% of subjects who were shown the returns annually selected Fund A; the majority chose the fund with the lower return – a staggering outcome, but why did this happen?

In short, it’s due to a phenomenon known as “myopic loss aversion”. This is where investors focus too strongly on the short term, leading them to react too negatively to losses at the expense of long-term benefits.

The same problem exists within gambling when monthly profit & loss becomes the focus. A tipster who’s in a losing position for the month going into the last few days is more likely to take a risk to try and salvage a profitable month; a risk they wouldn’t have taken if they were in healthy profit. The concept of “Loss Aversion” means that a sudden loss of £100 hurts more than the equivalent gain of £100 gives pleasure.

Using the same logic, a tipster who enters the final days of a month with a slim profit is likely to take less risk to maintain their position. Normally, this will be disguised with the quote “I can’t find any value today” or words to that effect.

The aim for all punters is to make long term profit; but focusing on the short term encourages behaviour that makes that aim even harder to achieve.

Every bet should be considered in isolation. If a tipster is profitable in the long run, a bet they deem optimal on the 1st of a month should also be placed on the 31st.

Monthly tracking has it’s uses and shouldn’t be disregarded entirely – but a profitable month should not be the priority.

Let’s get back to focusing on the long term!

*Thaler, R (2015) ‘Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics’

Eye-catchers of the week (20th Jan – 26th Jan)

JESSIEMAC (2nd) – 4:00 Newcastle (20th January)

An improving mare, her hold up style makes it a nervous watch for those that back her. However, it was hard not to be taken with the way she scythed through the field with relative ease on her recent start; stone last at the 4th last, Derek Fox guided her to lead just after the next flight of hurdles. She looked to have plenty left but the testing ground marred with Newcastle’s steady uphill finish and the 3-mile trip eventually took its toll on Jessiemac, who started to toil approaching the final obstacle.

It’s possible that Derek Fox went got to the front too soon but I just think she ran out of steam in the final couple of furlongs; she won last time over 2m4f and clearly isn’t short of speed. The sectionals show that the pace was very strong through the middle of the race which made it a real stamina test. A finishing speed of just 95% demonstrates just hoe gruelling it was.

Jessiemac went up 2lbs for that run but given her upward profile, she could well have more to give. I wouldn’t mind her stepping back to 2m4f but a strong pace would need to be assured. She could well run next at Ayr; she’s had 10 of her 16 career starts at the Scottish track, resulting in 2 wins & 3 places.

THE BIG STING (4th) – 4:30 Exeter (21st January)

Given that he looks destined to be a staying chaser, The Big Sting ran with a great degree of credit in this bumper.

Up with the pace throughout, he looked a likely winner on the turn for home (traded at 2.14 in running) but he couldn’t maintain that position as he was swept aside by Red Rookie, who ran out an impressive winner. He eventually faded into 4th, but his weakness in the market before the off did indicate that he was likely to improve for this first run.

All things considered; it was a very promising performance. I don’t imagine he’ll have too many more runs in bumpers (if any). He’ll be of interest once sent over hurdles, especially when upped in distance.

TEMPLE HIGH (3rd) – 1:35 Warwick (22nd January)

This half-sister to Midnight Tour (2nd in a Mares Hurdle) made her hurdle debut here after only having 1 run prior; that was in a bumper and the form of that run has been franked. The winner (Overthetop) and runner up (Induno) have both won twice this season and the 4th placed finisher won his next start.

She opened up at 4/1 for this mares’ novice hurdle but drifted alarmingly out to 10/1 on the day. You always like to see some market support with Nicky’s runners so the writing seemed on the wall. Despite this, she travelled as well as anything throughout the race and finished only 4 ½ L behind the winner in 3rd place.

The winner, Molly Ollys Wishes, was only rated 116 coming into this race but she was equipped with a first-time tongue tie and this was her first attempt at a trip further that 2-miles so she undoubtedly performed better than that mark; the handicapper raised her to a mark of 124 for that performance.

The runner-up, It’s Probably Me, is in the same ownership as Temple High. This was her first start of the season outside of listed company so she’s clearly held in high regard and her strength in the market in comparison to Temple High tells its own story.

Temple High wasn’t given a hard time and she’ll come on leaps and bounds for the run. I wouldn’t mind seeing her step back in trip given how well she travelled.

PROPER TICKET is worth a mention having finished 4th in the same race. She’s now eligible for handicaps so keep an eye out for her.

RETURN TICKET (2nd) – 2:30 Catterick (22nd January)

Having been thrown into deep waters on his two previous starts over fences, Return Ticket lined up here for his first handicap chase from a mark of 129.

He never had a chance in the grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase last time; he shaped with credit but handicaps were always going to be where he ended up.

Return Ticket really caught the eye with how powerfully he travelled throughout the race. Approaching two out, it looked as though he’d sweep to the lead. Having got to the leader’s quarters, the complexion of the race changed drastically as Ruth Jefferson’s charge had to be shaken up to renew an effort. He couldn’t close on the eventual winner, Schieallion Munro, who was very impressive in his own right; he pinged every fence and looks a majorly progressive type. He’s been raised 9lbs to a mark of 140 which may tempt connections into having a crack at the Close Brothers.

His jumping was good at first but he made an error at four consecutive fences in the back straight. They weren’t glaring mistakes but they certainly made life harder for him. He is only a novice so he can be forgiven at this stage of his chase career.

He remains on a mark of 129 which I believe he is capable of winning off. He loves a sound surface and I think he’s most effective over 2-miles for now. He can win a nice handicap chase in the spring.

IMPERIAL AURA (2nd) – 1:15 Cheltenham (25th January)

On the back of his solid 2nd to Pym over an extended 3-miles, Imperial Aura was always going to be all the rage on his next run in a handicap.

Having been well backed for a race at Huntingdon that was abandoned, he made his reappearance in this competitive novice handicap at Trials Day. There was little doubt in my mind that he was a well handicapped horse off a mark of 136 and under normal circumstances I would’ve been very keen on him. However, Kim Bailey’s yard had been on the easy list following a string of disappointing performances in 2020. That seemed to play into the mind of punters before the race as he drifted from 5/2 to 5/1.

This was also his first chase in a big field on ground that was on the soft side for him. Under the circumstances, he ran a blinder to finish just 1 ½ lengths behind Simply the Betts (pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the 3rd)

He’s been raised 7lbs for that run to a mark of 143 which I initially thought was harsh. On reflection, it seems fair enough and it ensures that he’ll get into the Close Brothers.

He’s now a 12/1 joint-favourite for that race which is easy to understand. While I’m not keen to back him now, he’ll be of major interest if he lines up and if the Kim Bailey string are in better form.

Preview: Cheltenham Trials Day

12:40 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (grade 2) (registered As The Finesse)

The surprise absence of Cerberus & Navajo Pass has left this race looking desperately short of quality. Those two would have brought proven graded form into this contest so it’s a shame that neither lines up.

As a result, MONTE CRISTO is likely to be a short-priced favourite.  Nicky Henderson has won this race four times in the last seven years; in the colours of Munir & Souede, Peace and Co won this race in 2015 before winning the Triumph Hurdle a couple of months later.

Monte Cristo was last seen winning a juvenile handicap hurdle at Auteuil and the British handicapper subsequently awarded him a mark of 140.

Simon Munir & Isaac Souede normally have a strong hand in the juvenile division but no stand out contender has emerged in their colours so far this season. The fact that Monte Cristo makes his British debut in a grade 2 could well be a sign of their belief in this horse.

He’s a half-brother to multiple winners; including Linda’s Charm who placed in a Group 3 in France. He’s currently 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle – that won’t last long were he to win this in good style.

It’ll be interesting to see how strong (or weak) he is in the market – that could well be the best indication of his chances.

ROWLAND WARD lines up having won an introductory juvenile hurdle in good style. Goa Lil was back in 4th that day; he won on his next start, beating Lord Lamington who previously finished 2nd in a grade 2 behind the aforementioned Navajo Pass. Rated 83 on the flat, this son of Sea the Stars will appreciate any drying out of the ground but he seemed to handle the underfoot conditions well on his last start. He’ll need to improve but he’s entitled to given he’s only had two starts over obstacles.

GALAHAD QUEST might well sneak under the radar for Nick Williams. Sent off a 13/8 favourite on debut, he bumped into leading Triumph contender Allmankind. In truth, he never looked like landing a blow and he finished well beaten in 4th. Still, the market vibes were positive which augured well for his prospects, especially when you consider how Nick Williams is known for gradually bringing on his young horses.

He ran a superb race on his next start when taking on older horses in a maiden hurdle at Taunton. He quickened up in good style approaching two out (trading at 1.15 in running) but he was outstayed by the odds-on favourite, Buzz – a 96 rated flat horse making his hurdle debut for Nicky Henderson.

Harry Cobden takes the ride; he’s had 2 wins & 4 places from just 9 rides for the trainer. In receipt of 3lbs from Monte Cristo and Rowland Ward, he could well outrun his odds.

GEROLAMO CARDANO made an impressive hurdling debut at Hereford earlier this month, powering away from Artistic Language in really testing conditions. The form of that run has taken a few knocks, with the 2nd and 3rd being by a combined 69 lengths on their next outings. Hereford barely survived a steward’s inspection that day and it might well be that the extreme conditions left a mark on the runners that day; for all that Gerolamo Cardano seemed to relish that ground, I am concerned that he may struggle in a similar vein to his rivals that day. Also, he won’t get those testing conditions here. He has a few things to prove in this company.

NIGHT EDITION lines up for David Pipe after finishing 4th at Taunton last month. This looks a very tough task and he looks to have place prospects at best.

GOLD STANDARD completes the line-up for Tony Carroll; he had a fair bit of success with Nelson River in juvenile’s last season but it’s tough to imagine Gold Standard replicating that here. Last seen being well beaten on the flat off a mark of 50, he makes his stable debut but he can only be watched.

SELECTION: GALAHAD QUEST (6/1)

1:15 – Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase

This race has thrown up some good winners in recent seasons; Kildisart won last year before finishing 4th in a hot renewal of the JLT while Mister Whitaker won in 2018 before winning the Close Brothers.

IMPERIAL AURA is likely to prove all the rage here and with good reason. He was very well backed when declared at Huntingdon the other week (before it was abandoned) & he’s always promised to make a top-class horse; winning three of his four starts over timber before making a very encouraging start to life over fences. He won with ease on chase debut where he was sent off a 1/25 favourite but it’s his run behind Pym that marked him down as a horse to follow.

For much of that contest, he travelled like the best horse but his exuberance ultimately took its toll as he failed to stay to extended 3m1f trip. He was also conceding experience to Pym since it was his first proper race over fences given his debut in this sphere was a non-contest. On that evidence, the step back in trip certainly looks to be in his favour and it will allow David Bass to give him a trademark positive ride.

It would be surprising if he didn’t progress beyond a mark of 136 and connections undoubtedly have an eye on the festival; with the Close Brothers and the Plate both being feasible targets.

My one concern (and it’s a significant one) would be the form of the yard. Kim Bailey’s are on the easy list currently following a string of disappointing performances in 2020. Sea Story’s very disappointing performance at Huntingdon on Friday only furthered those concerns. But they’re let Imperial Aura take his chance and they wouldn’t be doing so if he didn’t seem right at home. However, it’s a big enough concern for me to leave him alone at a short price in a competitive handicap.

GOWITHTHEFLOW made my “Eye-catchers of the week” list for his performance at Kempton two weeks ago. He was the only one who closed on track specialist Erick Le Rouge and it was encouraging to see him jump with much more fluency following a disappointing start to chasing career. He’s been raised 5lbs for that run but this point-to-point winner has always been held in high regard; he was thought good enough to run in the Ballymore a couple of seasons ago. However, his current price of 7/1 doesn’t appeal too much to me and on watching his last start back, Nico had him wide throughout which might be why he jumped better but it remains to be seen how he’ll perform with rivals around him.

SIMPLY THE BETTS and ON THE SLOPES finished 2nd and 3rd behind Commanche Red on Boxing Day. They ran drastically different races that day; Simply the Betts never looked like winning – running in snatches and jumping markedly to the left on multiple occasions. It was encouraging to see him stay on strongly especially considering the bulk of his form has come over 2 miles and the return to a left-handed track should definitely suit.

In contrast, On the Slopes was prominent throughout and jumped well. He loomed up on the turn for home, trading at a low of 2.1 in running but he was brushed aside by his stablemate approaching the final fence. He’s been very consistent in competitive handicaps this season and he’s been dropped 1lb for his last run meaning he meets Simply the Betts on 1lb better terms after finishing just half a length behind him.

On the Slopes may not be as exciting as Simply the Betts but the price discrepancy is too big in my opinion; 12/1 for the former while the latter is 13/2. It’s also worth noting that On the Slopes was well backed when declared to race at Huntingdon (the same race as Imperial Aura). Chris Gordon is in good form and I’d side with his charge at the prices.

MERCY MERCY ME broke his maiden tag last time; form that’s been franked with the 3rd place Cap Du Nord winning on Thursday. He’s been a frustrating horse to follow but maybe Paul Nicholls is finally getting to the bottom of him – although this is the classic “Flu Jab” season for the trainer so it might be safer to avoid his runners for now.

CHAMPAGNE COURT and COURT MASTER are both 2/2 over fences although the latter was fortunate to win last time. Top weight JARVEY’S PLATE makes his handicap chase debut after disappointing on his last two starts; his chase debut entitles him to plenty of respect but he has something to prove at present.

SELECTION: ON THE SLOPES (12/1)

1:50 – Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase 

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has been ultra-consistent in his chasing career to date; in the 5 handicap chases he’s completed (unseated in the BetVictor Gold Cup) he’s placed on 4 occasions. That fact is part of his appeal while also being a negative; his handicap chase debut came on a mark of 145 and he races off the same mark today thanks to his 1 length defeat at Kempton on his last start.

The step back in trip to 2 ½ miles should suit him and he brings solid course form to this race; he was 2nd in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on this card last season and he wasn’t beaten far by Mister Whitaker in the Silver Trophy. He’s likely to run his race yet again and he could be an “Each-way shot to nothing” if that’s your thing. For me, I’m happy to look elsewhere.

LALOR made one of the best chase debuts in recent memory when winning the Arkle trial at this track in November 2018. The wheels came off thereafter; that was until his last start where he gave a bold sight in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase on New Years’ Day. He looked to appreciate the step up in trip and a repeat of that effort should see him go close here in a weaker race, albeit from a 4lb higher mark.

We know Lalor has plenty of class but there has to be a big question mark about whether he can repeat that previous effort. I have my doubts.

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES represents Dan and Harry Skelton. Two Taffs had been jocked up for this race earlier in the race so I was surprised to see this last-minute switch (and annoyed as I really fancies the chances of Two Taffs!) He was a leading fancy for the Bet Victor Gold Cup following his great run in the Plate; he bitterly disappointed that day and he did so again at Newbury on his penultimate start.

He made a return to form in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup where he finished a narrow 2nd. He’s been raised 3lbs for that up to 149; 2lbs higher than when 3rd in the Plate. In general, he’s performed well at Cheltenham and was a narrow 3rd in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase last season (meets Highway One O One on 1lb worse terms here)

WARTHOG won the aforementioned Caspian Caviar in game fashion. He’s only been given a 4lb rise for that which seems fair enough and he’s likely to front-run here. With just 6 starts over fences, there’s still plenty of scope for progression and he arrives on the back of two very good performances over course and distance. He’d be my choice of those at the top of the market.

COUNT MERIBEL made a very encouraging seasonal reappearance when chasing home Losintranslation but he didn’t perform as expected in the BetVictor Gold Cup next time. He’s still lightly raced over fences and this course winner might be underestimated in the market at his current price of 10/1.

MY WAY is the unexposed runner in the line-up having only had 3 starts over fences. Last seen chasing home the progressive Espoir De Guye, he was the only one capable of challenging him that day. He’s warrants respect despite being 1lb out of the weights.

GARDE LA VICTOIRE is an interesting one at a big price. He’s only raced three times since March 2018, in-part due to a tendon injury last season but he shaped with plenty of promise on his seasonal reappearance. Held up in rear, Richard Johnson nursed him along to chase the leading group as the race started to develop. He came there to dispute 3rd at the second last but he faded late on to finish 6th in the style of a horse that need the run, as he was entitled to do.

The handicapper has been kind to him, dropping him a further 3lbs for that run to a mark of 141; his lowest rating since 2014. He is 11yo now but Phillip Hobbs won this race with Wishfull Thinking in 2014 when he was that age. A 3-time course winner, he’s worth taking a chance on.

SELECTION: GARDE LA VICTOIRE (14/1)

2:25 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase

This race has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years; the last winning favourite came in 1999.

SANTINI is likely to carry that burden this year. Very much a ‘marmite’ horse, he was the furthest thing from impressive when beating Now McGinty at Sandown. The track wouldn’t have suited but you’d have been hoping for something more from a Gold Cup contender.

The stiff nature of the New Course will be a much better match for him and it’s important to remember that he was a leading novice chaser last season. For all that he’s slow, this race often goes to slow horses (Frodon being an exception). It’s also interesting that no Gold Cup winner since 2000 has contested this race.

I couldn’t be backing Santini at a short price here for all that this test will suit.

BRISTOL DE MAI is his chief market rival at the time of writing. His 3rd in last year’s Gold Cup is the standout form on offer and he didn’t lose anything in defeat behind Lostintranslation last time. Given connection’s previous comments around having him fresh for the Gold Cup, I’m surprised to see him turn up here.

There’s only one race I’d consider backing Bristol De Mai in and he’s already lost that race this season. I’m happy to oppose the front two here.

SLATE HOUSE steps out of novice company here after an impressive win in the Kauto Star. His jumping can leave a lot to be desired but his engine is there for all to see; he would’ve been 4 from 4 this season if he didn’t fall in the BetVictor Gold Cup. Three of his career wins have come at this track and while this demands more, he’s progressive and his presence here certainly adds a layer of depth to this contest.

TOP VILLE BEN is an admirable stayer who’s handicap days are well behind him having gone up 10lbs for winning the Rowland Meyrick. A mark of 164 is the 2nd highest in the field; 1lb higher than Santini. One of the most likable horses in training, he’s a bold jumping front runner who will make this a test for his rivals. The question will come towards the finish: does he have the class to repel some classy opposition? He fell in last years RSA so he also has to prove his ability to handle the track.

DE RASHER COUNTER comes here after winning the Ladbrokes Trophy under talented conditional Ben Jones. He’s clearly on an upward curve but he’ll need to improve significantly again to take a race of this nature.

MISTER WHITAKER completes the field but he’d be a surprising winner. Winner of the Close Brothers in 2018, his one attempt at a staying trip came in last year’s Ultima; he was pulled up that day but he never got into a rhythm so it’s too soon to say he doesn’t stay but he certainly has to prove it here.

SELECTION: TOP VILLE BEN (15/2)

3:00 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (The Classic)

This race often supplies clues for the Festival and it can pay to look at the placed horses as well as the winner; The New One finished 2nd here before winning the Ballymore while the winner, At Fishers Cross, went on to win the Albert Bartlett.

Ante-post favourite Sporting John wasn’t declared so JP is represented by TIME FLIES BY. He made a good impression at the Showcase meeting in October, demonstrating his ability to handle testing ground. He backed that up with a solid 2nd place finish behind Israel Champ. Thrown into Grade 2 company for his hurdle debut, he shaped with a fair amount of promise considering his jumping was far less fluent than his more experienced rivals. He wasn’t given a hard time by Geraghty and the step up in trip should be in his favour. Nicky Henderson won this in 2018 & 2019 and the fact that he’s his sole representative might be a tip in itself. Watch the market.

KING ROLAND has carried a lofty reputation since his debut. Having lost on his first run of the season to Son of Camas, he won by 19 lengths on his next start in the style of a very talented horse. He’s always looked like he’d need at least 2m4f and so this stronger test of stamina is a positive for his chances. He’s a very exciting prospect.

PROTEKTORAT won (then lost, then won again) a listed race last time out over course and distance. He’s one of the more experienced runners in the field but he has to concede 5lbs to all of his rivals here and he’d probably want even softer ground. He needs to improve again to win this and I can’t have him as a 3/1 second favourite – he could be one for a festival handicap.

HARRY SENIOR makes much more appeal at the prices – 9/2 at the time of writing. He finished 4th behind Ofalltheginjoints on hurdles debut before running into the useful pair Sporting John & Edwardstone on subsequent starts. Stepped up to 2m4f next time, he looked better the further he went to win going away. He’s improved with every run and I can see him going very close here. It’s also worth noting that he was very well backed for the Leamington at Warwick before being withdrawn at the start.

HOUSE ISLAND is a listed bumper winner that’s taken well to hurdling, improving with every start. 2nd in a grade 2 on his penultimate start behind Enrilo (who was beaten comprehensively by Thyme Hill next time out) – he can go well but I’d be surprised if he won.

The Irish are represented by ROCKET LAD who beat subsequent dual winner Drury on his penultimate start. Found to be lame after disappointing in a listed race next time, he’s had nearly 3 months to recover and shouldn’t be underestimated.

RUTHLESS ARTICLE has raced exclusively on good ground so far. He steps up in class on his first run since September with plenty to prove. FRENCH KISS looks to have an impossible task.

SELECTION: HARRY SENIOR (9/2)

3:35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle

Last years winner and reigning Stayers Hurdle champion Paisley Park returns after missing his intended reappearance date at Ascot in December.

He’s 5/4 for the Festival at present with the looming spectre of Benie Des Dieux lurking as a potential challenger for his crown.

It will take a big performance to stop him extending his winning streak to seven but he faces arguably his toughest opponent yet in the form of IF THE CAP FITS.

Harry Fry’s charge relished the step up in trip at Aintree to get up on the line ahead of Mares Hurdle winner, Roksana. Notably, a lot of Paisley Park’s previous opponents were well behind him that day. He made a pleasing reappearance in the Coral Hurdle, getting the better of Call me Lord – that rival won the International on his next start and the pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the rest.

Another interesting angle is that there doesn’t appear to be much pace in the race; without The Worlds End or Sam Spinner, there is no confirmed front runner which could lead to slowly run affair; that’s unlikely to benefit the stout stayer Paisley Park but it may benefit If The Cap Fits who had the required speed to place in an Elite Hurdle.

SUMMERVILLE BOY made all to win the Relkeel but this is his first attempt at 3 miles so I can’t imagine they’ll be too keen to go from the front here. His jumping has often let him down but he’s always displayed bundles of promise. This requires another step forward.

KILBRICKEN STORM or LISNAGAR OSCAR are other candidates to force the pace; both are on somewhat of a recovery mission and it would take a career best for either to trouble the front two in the market.

L’AMI SERGE is an enigmatic but talented performer who’s entitled to come on for his run in the Long Walk – his first run for 580 days. He’ll undoubtedly travel through the race with menace but Is highly unlikely to find anything for pressure; he’s the polar opposite of Paisley Park in that regard.

TOBEFAIR has been a star for Debra Hamer and he’s won twice over course and distance while WILLIAM HENRY demonstrated his aptitude around Cheltenham when winning the Coral Cup last season.

This is a fascinating race and it’s arguably the biggest test of Paisley Park’s career. I wouldn’t be quick to take him on but I’m fascinated to see him clash with If The Cap Fits.

SELECTION: PAISLEY PARK (8/11)*

*No Bet

4:10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle

SOFIA’S ROCK heads the market. A talented performer on the level, he took well to hurdles and quickly progressed to earn a mark of 140. His first start in a handicap came in the Swinton in May 2019; he ran a superb race to finish just 3 ½ lengths behind Le Patriote.

He’s ran with credit behind Silver Streak in a listed race on his first start of the season before finishing 2nd off this mark in a handicap behind Highly Prized. With just 6 starts over hurdles, he remains open to improvement. The soft ground would be a concern given that he’s raced exclusively on a sound surface over hurdles to date.

AINCHEA is a fascinating contender. He suffered a nasty injury back in 2018 forcing him to miss all of last season. He made his comeback at Sandown after 700 days off the track; no doubt connections were just pleased to see him back on the track that day and he’s entitled to come on significantly for that outing.

Described as having a “massive engine” by Colin Tizzard, he has significant potential off a mark of 133 considering his novice hurdle form a couple of seasons ago. A tongue-tie goes on for the first time and while comes with risks attached, he could well prove a very well handicapped horse if retaining his ability.

NORTHERN BEAU has won four times over fences this season, with two of those victories coming at Cheltenham. Her most recent victory came last time out off a mark of 125 with connections looking to exploit the same mark back over hurdles. The concern is that her improvement has been a result of the switch to the larger obstacles; she was a maiden over hurdles who failed to win off 105 on her last start in that sphere. She needs to prove that she can match her chase form back over hurdles. If she does, she’s a big player.

WE RUN THE NIGHT won on all three starts in France (two hurdles, one chase). Assessing that form is no easy task and the market vibes are probably the best way to assess his chances. Ben Pauling said in a stable tour that “he could be anything”.

LUST FOR GLORY reverts back to hurdles but she’s performed poorly on both starts at Cheltenham to date; she has enough to prove at present.

BACK ON THE LASH is of interest back down in trip and Jonathan Burke is an interesting first-time jockey booking. He’s Martin Keighley’s only runner on the card and he won this race back in 2016. Just 3lbs higher than when winning at Exeter, he ran with credit at this track on his penultimate start and he could well outrun his odds (12/1 at present)

SELECTION: AINCHEA (13/2)

Thank you for reading! Any Retweets/Likes/Comments are greatly appreciated!

Eye-catchers of the week (13th Jan – 20th Jan)

SENIOR CITIZEN (2nd) – 2:10 Doncaster (14th January)

On a gloomy Tuesday afternoon, Senior Citizen made his debut over fences in a competitive beginners’ chase. He was the lowest rated hurdler in the field and his trainer, Alan King, seemed pessimistic about his chances; he was unsure about the testing conditions and suggested that he’d improve considerably for his first run of the season.

Despite those negatives, he ran a superb race to finish 2nd behind The Big Bite. Held up in rear, he made smooth progress to press the leaders on the turn for home. Notably, he was the only one of those ridden patiently to land a blow. He traded at a low of 3.0 in running (SP of 12/1) and was only denied by a horse with a fitness & experience edge.

His dam, Mothers Help, was a much better chaser than she was a hurdler; of her 7 career wins, 6 came over the larger obstacles. On the evidence of his chase debut, Senior Citizen may well follow in his mother’s footsteps.

His best form over hurdles was on a sound surface so there may well be plenty of improvement left once returned to quicker ground. He’s entitled to come on for his seasonal reappearance and he’ll be of strong interest in a handicap off his current mark of 125.

MINT CONDITION (4th) – 1:15 Newbury (15th January)

This race was the Shishkin show – and rightly so. The way he quickened up after the last was mightily impressive and there can be little doubt that he’s destined for bigger things.

However, on rewatching the race, I was quietly impressed by the performance of Mint Condition. Positioned just behind the leading group, he jumped accurately throughout and made steady headway to track Shishkin and Shakem Up’Arry; He was under pressure but not hard ridden to do so unlike a lot of the other pursuers. The front two eventually asserted their dominance and pulled clear while Mint Condition finished a valiant 4th.

Despite being sent off at 25/1, it wasn’t surprising to see him run well as his previous run in a bumper suggested that he’s a talented horse. He finished 3rd behind Soaring Glory and Truckers Pass; the former won another bumper on his next start before finishing 2nd in a listed race while the latter was a runner up again on his next run. Jennie Candlish isn’t known for her success in bumpers – she’s only had 1 win in the last 5 years which makes the performance of Mint Condition more significant.

He looks capable of winning a maiden hurdle in the near future.

CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM (4th) – 1:45 Newbury (15th January)

Bought for £250,000 after winning his point-to-point, he was an impressive winner of two novice hurdles last season before finishing well beaten in a grade 1 at Punchestown.

Quickly switched to fences, he’s made an inauspicious start to life in this sphere. His jumping has been appalling so far and you’d struggle to back him with any confidence on the back of his first two efforts over the larger obstacles.

With that said – how has he made it onto this list?

It’s largely down to his connections. Barry Geraghty has given him two educational rides to date; held up and never ridden into a fence. Mind you, there’s little doubt that he needs that education.

He clearly has an engine. You need look no further than his last start for evidence of that; he looked like tailing off for much of the race but he thundered home in the style of a horse with plenty in the tank.

In all likelihood, we’re talking about a handicap job for the future. He’s one to watch out for when the market is speaking in his favour.

HIGHWAY GIRL (2nd) – 1:10 Market Rasen (16th January)

I was at Market Rasen when she made her handicap debut. For much of the 3-mile contest she looked the winner. She coasted to the lead on the turn for home, trading at 1.1 in running before being gunned down by Blue Hussar after the last, much to my dismay (yes, I backed her). The front two pulled 11 lengths clear of Seemingly So in 3rd which suggests that it was a good performance from both horses – the clock also suggests that as it was the quickest time of any race on the card.

Despite having my fingers burnt, it was hard not to be impressed by the way she travelled through the race. This was her first start after a wind operation and she also had a tongue tie on for the first time which definitely seemed to help her. However, the trip seemed to catch her out and I’d like to see her drop back to 2m4f.

Only raised 2lbs for that run, she’s definitely one to follow next time out.

DAWSON CITY (4th) – 1:15 Ascot (18th January)

An admirable staying chaser, it was great to see this 11-year-old show that he still retains plenty of ability after a couple of below par efforts to start the season.

He showed up well for a long time despite the race not being a sufficient test of stamina; 3-miles at Ascot was never going to see him to best effect but he stayed on nicely at the finish, only beaten 7 lengths into 4th.

After that encouraging effort, the Devon National is likely to be next on the agenda. It’s a race he’s won for the last two years and no doubt connections will have geared his campaign around the hat-trick attempt.

He won the race off 131 last year (127 in 2018) and the handicapper has generously dropped him 1lb to 131. Once again, he’ll be a major player.

DOYANNIE (3rd) – 4:25 Taunton (18th January)

A temperamental mare but she certainly has ability.

Sent off the 6/4 favourite for her bumper debut back in May, she travelled powerfully throughout and it looked for all the world that she’d win comfortably. She was the last to be asked for an effort but once push came to shove, she was very green and failed to pick off the leading duo, eventually finishing 3rd.

The form of that race hasn’t worked out well and so it was no surprise that she was sent off a 20/1 chance for this Taunton bumper. Her disposition is clearly an issue as she was equipped with a hood and she also had to be led in at the start. For all that these are worrying signs, she again displayed a fair amount of promise with the way she travelled into the race but she hung right once asked for an effort.

She has a good pedigree; a daughter of Doyen and her dam is a half-sister to the useful duo Creevytennant and Fagan. She has the ability to win races but she may need time to mature mentally.

Eye-catchers of the week (6th Jan – 12th Jan)

LE CAMELEON – 1:20 Chepstow (6th January)

I don’t normally mention last time out winners in this series but I’m making an exception here as I have a lot of time for this horse.

A half brother to multiple winners (Moonlighter, Horatio Hornblower & George Nympton), he shaped with a great deal of promise on his sole bumper start. He eventually finished 6th but he travelled very powerfully throughout and he looked sure to take closer order until fading late on. That was a promising debut effort considering the calibre of the opposition; McFabulous, Fautinovick & Silver Hallmark were the front three and multiple subsequent winners finished down the field. It’s also worth noting that he was sent off at 6/1 so there was clearly some belief in his ability from an early stage.

He started this season with two promising placed efforts, including a 3rd place finish behind the exciting Sporting John. On both occasions, he looked like a work in progress but one with plenty of ability.

Off the mark on his 3rd start over hurdles, he was still very keen throughout and it was notable that Chester Williams was reluctant to send him to the front too soon. Once he finally asked him to put his race to bed, he did so in decent style under hands and heels; he was certainly value for his 1 ¾ L victory.

Described as a “big baby” and “a 3-mile chaser in the making”, he’s likely to be brought on gradually as is customary with Nick Williams. While I don’t expect him to run many more times this season, I do think a mark of 120 underestimates him. He’s certainly capable of winning more races in this sphere and he’ll be of strong interest in a handicap on soft/heavy ground.

PRUDHOMME – 3:00 Taunton (7th January)

Another Nick Williams horse (I promise this is the last one on this particular list!) and another that looks to possess a fair amount of ability for all that he isn’t the finished article yet.

A winner on his final bumper start, he made a successful hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in October in stylish fashion. Having travelled well throughout, he stalked the leader entering the home straight and readily pulled away under hands and heels after the last. The front three that day pulled 7L clear of the rest so it’s not surprising that the second and third (Thor De Cerisy & Emmas Joy) have won subsequently; they both have an official rating of 124.

Prudhomme bitterly disappointed next time when sent off a 2/7f but he had wind surgery immediately following that run so that effort can be forgiven.

He made his return at Taunton in a competitive 0-140 event. Sent off at just 5/1, he travelled enthusiastically in rear for most of the contest, with Chester Williams keeping him four wide throughout. He made smooth headway approaching the final flight in the back straight, travelling significantly better than the majority of his rivals. A sloppy jump dd his chances no favour but he recovered well to hold every chance approaching two out, trading at a low of 2.22 in running. However, the step up to 2m3f appeared to take its toll as he faded into 5th.

As with Le Cameleon, two miles looks to be his optimum trip for all that both should stay further in time. We often see horses run appreciably better on their second start after a wind operation too. He was dropped 1lb to a mark of 124 for his last start which would appear to be a workable one, especially when you consider the form of his novice hurdle win (discussed above)

GOWITHTHEFLOW – 1:30 Kempton (11th January)

It finally seemed to click for him over fences on his 4th chase start under rules after three bitterly disappointing efforts.

Nico gave him a lovely ride considering his struggles over fences so far. While Mercian Prince & Erick Le Rouge led the field along, Gowiththeflow headed the chasing pack but Nico had him out wide so he had plenty of space to attack his fences. His jumping was significantly better and he was the only one capable of closing on the Kempton specialist Erick Le Rouge.

The pair pulled 12L clear of the rest so it’s no surprise that he’s been raised 5lbs to a mark of 133. Thought good enough to take his chance in the 2018 Ballymore, he’s always been held in high regard and point-to-point winner looks to finally be getting his act together over the larger obstacles. He should prove capable of picking up a decent handicap from his current mark; a step up to 3 miles could well be worth another go based on the way he stayed on.

HOLD THE NOTE – 1:50 Warwick (11th January)

I’m a huge fan of this horse despite my financial investments in him going unrewarded so far!

His two chase efforts both displayed a fair amount of promise. He was 3rd on chase debut after being well backed and travelling very well; he may have needed that run and the ground was very testing that day. He reappeared on Boxing Day at Kempton in a race that connections have targeted with their best novice chaser. Again, he travelled like a talented horse but he was brought to a standstill by the fall of Roll Again. He was quickly pulled up to be saved for another day.

At Warwick, he proved that a mark of 133 underestimated his ability. In a field full of higher rated rivals, he went through the race like the best horse. As he and Two for Gold pulled away from the rest, Hold the Note appeared to have the edge and traded at a low of 1.16 in running. However, he was outstayed by the tenacious Two for Gold who has shown on multiple occasions that he’s a determined battler so there is no shame in going down to him.

When making my notes for this, I thought that Hold the Note would be raised about 6lbs, given that Two for Gold came into the race with a rating of 140. That would put him on a mark of 139; absolutely ideal for the Close Brothers at Cheltenham.

To my dismay, the handicapper has put him up 12lbs to a mark of 145. Perhaps I was being optimistic in hoping that he might slip under the radar. After all, it didn’t require the shrewdest judge to spot the potential and the exploits of Mister Whitaker and Glen Forsa have focused the eyes of the racing world to the Channon/Radford novice chasers. While this mark would guarantee him a place in the novice handicap chase at the festival, it raises two concerns.

Firstly, any collateral form boost could see him raised further; a rating of 145 is the ceiling for the Close Brothers, so any further increase would make him ineligible. Secondly, he may have shown too much of his hand. It’s what I’ll call the “Glen Forsa” problem; a good performance in a graded race could well force connections to look at other options. The Plate could be an option for him and novices have done well in that race in recent years.

For now, I’m happy to leave him alone from an ante-post perspective. However, he will be of interest wherever he turns up. 2m4f looks to be his trip for now.

From the same race, WHATMORE is also worth a mention. This was his first attempt at 3 miles so Richard Johnson understandably held him up. The race did not unfold favourably for him though. He was travelling better than most after 3 out as the front two began to pull away. Stuck behind a wall of fading horses, the champion jockey tried to sneak Whatmore up the inside through a gap that didn’t exist. This ended any chance he had of closing on the leaders but he still ran on to finish 3rd. He’s shown ability over fences but I’d say he’s better over an intermediate trip. He’s been kindly dropped 1lb to a mark of 138 for that effort and he’s one to note in handicaps.

OVERCOURT – 1:25 Kelso (12th January)

He’s been steadily progressing over hurdles and he posted his best effort to date when chasing home Cheddleton and Jabbaar; that pair are both well above average and so there was shame in his 3rd place finish behind them.

In fact, he was 9L clear of the rest despite being given a far more lenient ride than most. Once the front two kicked away, Ryan Mania was just pushing Overcourt out under hands and heels while most were far more animated.

With three hurdle runs under his belt, he’s now eligible for handicaps where he should be far more competitive. His dam, Overlady, was a thorough stayer so a step up in trip should suit him and he seemed to handle heavy ground pretty well last time out.

At the time of posting, he doesn’t have an official rating but it’ll be interesting to see what mark he gets. He seems to be progressing nicely and he’s one to note in handicaps for a trainer who’s started the year in fantastic form.

METICULOUS – 2:40 Punchestown (12th January)

The Moscow Flyer saw a fantastic battle between Captain Guinness and Andy Dufresne; I was very impressed by both for different reasons but I was also drawn to the hurdles debut of Meticulous.

A very good bumper horse last season, he was a solid 2nd behind Envoi Allen at Leopardstown before taking his chance at Cheltenham. Sent off a 7/1 shot, he slightly disappointed that day as he finished 8th but the soft ground would not have been in his favour; Joseph O’Brien said in a stable tour that Meticulous “doesn’t want the ground too heavy” and his form shows that he’s much more effective on a sounder surface.

The soft ground at Punchestown would’ve been against him but I was impressed with the way he travelled for much of the race and he jumped very well considering it was first start over hurdles. He had no chance with the front two but he was the last of the pursuers to be asked for an effort. It’s worth noting that he was weak in the market which suggests that he’ll improve for that run.

I don’t expect him to run at Cheltenham or Aintree but he could be one that sneaks under the radar at Punchestown. Keep an eye out for him.

Thank you for reading! Let me know who caught your eye this week @OverandClear on Twitter!