THE CON MAN – 2:35 Haydock (30^th December)

With Marie’s Rock & Ebony Jewel giving the form of his previous run a serious boost, The Con Man lined up a well supported 9/4 favourite for this 2m2f handicap.

For a long way, it looked as though that support would be justified as the lightly raced hurdler travelled through the race extremely well and traded at a low of 1.16. He was pegged back in the closing stages by Flinck, another young & progressive type who’s a very strong stayer over that trip. The pair pulled 6 lenghts clear of the rest and it’s generally a good sign when the unexposed runners pull away from the more seasoned handicappers.

A Point-to-Point winner for Colin Bowe, he beat Old Rascals by 5 lengths; he’s now rated 134. In his sole hurdle start last season, he beat the now 131-rated Garrettstown and as previously mentioned, the form of his penultimate start at Newbury now has a very strong look to it.

The feeling is that this son of Oscar relishes soft ground and Colin Bowe is adamant that 3 miles will be his optimum trip in time. With his size and scope, his long-term future lies over fences but I’d be surprised if this lightly raced 7-year-old can’t win a handicap before the end of the season.

AMATEUR – 2:35 Warwick (31^st December)

He showed a fair amount of promise in bumpers back in 2017, winning at Chepstow before running in the grade 2 bumper at Aintree. He finished 11^th that day, but the fact he was thought good enough to compete at that level shows the regard he was held in.

He’s only had 5 starts since then, indicating that he’s probably had injury issues.

Still, he competed in 3 very competitive novice hurdles, won by: Beakstown, Alsa Mix & Éclair Surf. The race won by Alsa Mix was a grade 2; again highlighting that connections have felt comfortable throwing him into deep waters.

His latest run was in a 3m2f handicap and it demonstrated his potential as an out-an-out stayer. Held up in rear, he began to make decent headway once asked for an effort, picking up really well in the straight to grab 2^nd having entered the home straight in 7^th.

He managed that effort having made numerous jumping mistakes. You can view that a couple of ways, either: he should be avoided because he makes mistakes or he’ll be even better once they’re ironed out. I prefer the later in this case given it was only his 5^th start over hurdles and it was his first time jumping amongst a large crowd of horses.

Well backed on his last couple of starts, he’s clearly thought capable of better. He’ll be of strong interest in 3m+ handicap hurdles, especially when the ground is testing.

MAGIC SAINT – 2:00 Cheltenham (1^st January)

Paul Nicholls has been trying to campaign him as a 2 ½ miler, but after his second failed attempt over that trip, surely it’s time to revert back to 2 miles.

He travelled with extreme menace approaching 3 out, trading in-play at a low of 2.82. From that point on, he began to tire but the way he went through the race was very encouraging for his future prospects. He’s unlikely to drop in the handicap, but he retains potential off his current mark.

The obvious race for him is the Grand Annual. He’s currently 20/1; a price which has tempted me into having a bet.

Sent off favourite for that race last year following just 3 starts over fences in Britain, he did not have the profile of a typical Grand Annual winner. For all that he had raced 4 times over fences in France, he lacked the necessary big field handicap experience to justify his short price for a race of that nature.

This year is different though. He’s now been competitive in multiple big field handicaps but he’s still only had 9 starts in Britain; a great combination of experience and potential.

In 2017 & 2018, the Grand Annual was won by the favourite in the previous year’s renewal. Le Prezien was 7/2 in 2017 when finishing 8^th before winning at 15/2 the following year off a 4lb higher mark. Rock the World was 9/2 in 2016 when finishing 3^rd before winning at 10/1 next year off just a 1lb higher mark.

His handicap win over 2 miles on his penultimate start received a big form boost when Bun Doran (a narrow 2^nd to Magic Saint who was giving him 4lbs) won the grade 2 Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas. Furthermore, Paul Nicholls has won this race 4 times in the last 16 years.

He’ll be right at the top of the weights with a current mark of 155, but he has a touch of class and this 6-year-old could go on to compete at the top level over the minimum trip.

He’s currently entered in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot on the 18^th January, but I don’t think he’ll go there. I believe there’s enough scope off his current mark for him to compete in handicaps before moving on to graded company next season.

ADVICE: Back MAGIC SAINT @ 20/1 EW for the Grand Annual

ASHINGTON – 2:15 Musselburgh (1^st January)

Backed like defeat was out of the question, he travelled like the best horse in the race and victory looked highly likely as he approached 2 out still on the bridle (traded at 1.11 in running).

Unfortunately for his supporters (I was unfortunately one of them), he found very little once asked for an effort and eventually finished 3^rd, 4 lengths behind the fast-finishing Sir Chauvelin. The winner came from way off the pace to win and it may be the case that Ashington paid the price for chasing a very strong pace. The fact that the front-runner was still in front approaching 2 out but was eventually beaten 24 lengths in 5^th also supports the idea that the pace was on the strong side.

Still, he travelled in the style of a good horse and he can land a good handicap from his current mark. Watch out for him over a sharp 2 miles.

BLAZER’S MILL – 12:30 Ayr (2^nd January)

Like many of Olly Murphy’s horses this season, he looked in desperate need of his first run. The market suggested that would be the case too, as he drifted from his overnight price of 4/6 to 7/4. Olly Murphy revealed in an earlier interview that he came back in from his summer break later than most, adding to the belief that he’d improve for his first outing of the season.

In fact, Olly Murphy had a winner on the same card two races later in a novice hurdle with Endlessly, who was well beaten on his first run of the season.

Held up early, you could see Richard Johnson trying to reign him back at times as he tried to stop his mount from over racing. This was his only his second run under rules so it was no surprise that he was still a bit green. Still, it was an improvement from his bumper win where he was very green at times.

He began to make headway 5 out as a group of 3 leaders began to pull away from the rest. He moved into 3^rd before 3 out but Johnson was getting more animated as he put in a sloppy jump. That was a jump of a tired horse and in testing conditions he probably used his remaining energy attempting to close on the leading trio. He eventually finished 4^th as the front two pulled well clear. Conditions were on the testing side and it may prove that he’s more effective on a sounder surface.

Blazer’s Mill is well regarded by the yard and he can still develop into a nice novice hurdler, for all that we won’t see the best of him until he goes chasing. His bumper victory worked out reasonably well, with the runner up winning his next two starts. His point to point 2^nd also looks strong; the winner, Birchdale, is rated 146 under rules while On The Slopes, now rated 129, was a further 8 lengths back in 3^rd.

He’s one to look out for on his next run and hopefully the bookmakers overreact to this defeat. 2m4f should be fine but I wouldn’t mind seeing him step back in trip given how he closed on the leaders approaching 3 out.

ELDORADO ALLEN – 3:35 Sandown (4^th January)

It was great to see this talented son of Khalkevi back on a racecourse after a 392-day layoff!

And he was so close to making it a winning return too – trading at a low of 1.24 before being gunned down by Mill Green in the final 100 yards.

Given he was carrying top weight and returning after over a year layoff on testing ground, it was a superb performance and one of immense promise. He was even cut in the Champion Hurdle market! 33s-50s with most major firms but even in a weak Champion Hurdle, it would be a very ambitious route to take.

It’s far more likely that we’ll see him next in another handicap. With chasing on the agenda next season, I’m sure connections will be more eager to win some decent prize money in handicaps before competing in graded company next year. Hopefully the handicapper isn’t too harsh! Although I do fear a significant rise is on the cards given the front two pulled 9 lengths clear.

The first race that sprang to mind was the Betfair Hurdle. It’s been a great race for young, unexposed horses in recent years and if he were to win impressively, it might even tempt connections into chancing their arm in the Champion Hurdle!

The Imperial Cup and the County Hurdle are other potential options, and it’s worth noting that Tizzard/Warner also have Elixir De Nutz to consider for these 2-mile handicaps given his disappointing performances in open company this season; a mark of 146 looks fair given his strong novice form.

Thank you for reading! Let me know who really caught your eye this week @overandclear on Twitter!

Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 running’s of the Arkle. Un De Sceaux, Douvan & Footpad were all sent off odds-on. They were all prominent in the ante-post markets from an early stage and were all considered to be “Bankers” heading into the meeting.

Last year was a very different story. With no standout contender on either side of the Irish Sea, a field of 12 headed to post in one of the most open Arkle’s in recent memory.

While the shape of the race was different to recent renewals, the end result was not, with the Irish dominating and Willie Mullins training the winner with his only representative in the race, Duc Des Genievres. How did we allow him to go off at 5/1!?! Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

This year, just like the last, appears to be wide open. While Notebook (5/1) has rightly emerged as a good favourite, he has not separated himself from the rest in the market like some of the classy aforementioned winners of past years had; a convincing win in the Irish Arkle would change that, but for now, there is no short-priced favourite.

One of my favourite quotes is: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” If George Santayana, the orchestrator of that great quote, were still alive (and a huge horse racing fan), I’m sure he would be meticulously studying to figure out which one of Wille’s was destined to turn up in this year’s Arkle.

That is easier said than done. If predicting Willie Mullins was easy, I wouldn’t be writing this article and Denise Coates certainly wouldn’t have banked £320m last year.

Alas, I have attempted the impossible.

TORNADO FLYER (25/1) is an interesting option. I don’t think many would’ve expected him to be campaigned over 2 miles given he was tried exclusively over 2m4f last season, but his dam is a half-sister to Hurricane Fly so there is speed in his pedigree.

Some horses do thrive over shorter distances once sent over fences; last year’s winner, Duc Des Genievres, is an apt example of that fact.

Very lightly raced with just 8 starts to his name, Tornado Flyer been tried at the highest level in bumpers and over hurdles; 4 of his 6 starts in those spheres came in grade 1’s. 3^rd in the 2018 Champion Bumper, he confirmed his promise by winning the Punchestown grade 1 bumper a month later.

Hopes were high for him heading into his novice hurdle season. He made a winning start to his career in that sphere with a comfortable victory at Punchestown in December. That victory saw him cut to 12/1 for the Ballymore and he lined up for the Lawlor’s of Naas next time as the well fancied 9/4 second favourite. He was seemingly amiss that day, pulling up early into the race. Nothing serious came to light in the aftermath, but he wasn’t seen again on the track until the Punchestown Festival 4 months later were ran a good race to finish 4^th in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle over 2m4f. With that more encouraging performance behind him, connections were quick to bookmark a chasing campaign next season.

He made a winning chase debut at Naas in November (2m3f), travelling well to dispute at the last before being ridden out to beat Choungaya by ¾L. Dropped back to 2m1f for a Grade 3 at Navan, he stayed on well to lead at the last, beating I’m A Game Changer by 4L.

That form alone is not enough to make him an Arkle contender, but what impressed me is how he dealt with adversity in both of those starts.

At Naas, he made a dreadful mistake at the 7^th which would’ve taken a lesser horse out of the race; yet he recovered well and his jumping thereafter was very good.

At Navan, he was snatched up approaching 3 out as the two Elliott horses stopped him from going between them. That badly checked his momentum but he managed to rally and quicken in the style of a good horse. Danny Mullins said after the race that “Once I got him balanced down to the last, I knew he’d have a good jump in him and he put it to bed nicely then” and “he was always going to be a class horse”

What adds further appeal from an ante-post perspective is that all the information I can find points to him being kept over the minimum trip this season. Wille Mullins said after his first win of the season that “The Racing Post Novice Chase and the Irish Arkle will be his aim”

He didn’t make the former, but he is entered at Naas on 5^th January for another 2m novice chase. Perhaps he felt that he needed more experience before tackling a grade 1 over fences; after all, he’s only had 8 career starts.

A victory on Sunday would surely confirm his place at the Dublin Racing Festival – which will be the litmus test for his Cheltenham Festival ambitions.

The recent run of MELON (14/1) has muddied the water somewhat. Before his battling win at Leopardstown on the 27^th December, connections seemed adamant that the two-time Champion Hurdle runner up would be stepping up in trip.

But immediately following the race, Willie said that “I’d imagine the Arkle is the likely target (for Melon) and he could come back here (Leopardstown) for the Dublin Racing Festival”

Given his high-class hurdle form, especially at Cheltenham, he’d certainly be a player if turning up here. 14/1 is widely available; a generous price when you consider his form with Fakir D’oudairies who is just 6/1.

Fakir beat Melon by 3L back in November, but Melon was conceding 8lbs to Fakir that day and come Arkle day they will be racing off level weights.

FAUGHEEN’s emphatic defeat of Samcro the previous day greatly enhanced his Marsh/JLT claims and it may have swayed them to keep Melon over the minimum trip. Add LAURINA’s bitterly disappointing performance into the mix and you can certainly see why they may have reconsidered their options with Melon.

Without trying to sound like an after-timer, I never believed that Laurina would be a genuine Arkle contender. She’s a talented mare, but she’s looks like she needs a trip and soft ground to be at her best. After being as short as 3/1 for the race after her chase debut, she’s now a 25/1 shot. It was found that she burst blood vessels after her last race, which can partly explain her poor performance for all that she looked to be struggling from a very early stage. Where she goes next is unknown. She may miss Cheltenham entirely but if she were to go, the Marsh/JLT (14/1) would be the logical choice.

CASH BACK (33/1) is worthy of a mention. He’s only had 4 starts for Willie Mullins, 3 of which have come over hurdles. Placed in a grade 2 novice hurdle, he was bought to be a chaser and that much was clear when he won nicely on his debut over fences. The form of that race isn’t strong, but Mullins has sent some of his best to that race in the past: Ballycasey, Vautour, Douvan, Min & Al Boum Photo made it 5 wins on the bounce between 2013 & 2018. He was reportedly held an entry for the Racing Post Novice Chase on Boxing Day too.

He’s entered in the same Novice Chase as Tornado Flyer at Naas on the 5^th January. 6 will head to post as the Mullins trained duo take on Bay Hill, Dunvegan, Ten Ten & Zero Ten. That’s a competitive line up and a good performance by either of the aforementioned Mullins pair will certainly see their price for the Arkle shorten, with the winner likely to head to the Dublin Racing Festival.

Paul Townend has chosen Tornado Flyer, allowing Danny Mullins to partner Cash Back. The former will be conceding 4lbs to the field so this will be no easy assignment. I’ll be watching that race closely.

BAPAUME (33/1) emerged as a possible dark horse for the Arkle with an accomplished round of jumping to win at the second time of asking over fences over 2m3f in mid-December. Better known as a 3 miler over hurdles, Mullins was keen to step him back in trip over the larger obstacles, especially after he faded badly on chase debut over 2m5f. Placed in the Triumph (2017) and the Stayers (2019), he’s one of the highest rated hurdlers to make the transition to fences this season and Ruby Walsh talked him up as his value bet for the race.

Bapaume is small horse and my concern is that he might lack the scope and pace to contend with the best over the minimum trip; but his Cheltenham form and his overall level of achievement over hurdles entitle him to plenty of respect. He and Cash Back are very much in the “ones to watch” category.

This is an ever-evolving scenario and it’s hard to be certain who will turn up in the Arkle. It’s like attempting to solve a jigsaw puzzle with blurred vision while a delightful Irishman keeps stealing the pieces and replacing them with new ones.

Right now, I think MELON and TORNADO FLYER are the likely representatives. They have differing profiles, but you can make a reasonable case for both. On form, Melon would be the stable’s #1. His Cheltenham form is sure to make him a popular choice should he line up on the day. 14/1 is a generous price, all things considered. He may find one to good, as he has done multiple times at the highest level, but he’s likely to give a good account of himself.

Tornado Flyer is intriguing to me. He hasn’t been visually impressive but he’s now 2/2 over fences and his targets have been the top grade 1 novice chases from the start of the season. Not only does that show a belief in his ability, but it’s a rare case of Willie Mullins having a sole aim and trip in mind for one of his novice chasers. He’s always promised to be a smart horse; this could be his year to prove himself.

Both appeal as EW options, but I will wait until the Naas race this Sunday at least. Beyond that, it will be interesting to see who is targeted at the Irish Arkle at the beginning of February.

*EDIT: After days of thinking about it, I think 14/1 for MELON is too good a price to turn down. He looks certain to come here and it’s hard to envisage 3 horses finishing ahead of him come March, especially given his excellent Cheltenham Festival form

Advise: Back MELON @ 14/1 EW

Who do you fancy for the Arkle? Will Willie win it again? Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @OverandClear