12:20 Ffos Las – Dalamoi 11/4 (HTF)

1:25 Ffos Las – Gris Gris Top 7/4

1:15 Hexham – Captain Quint 3/1

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Dalamoi

To have run as well as he has in two good ground bumpers is a testament to this horses ability as that is clearly not what he wants.

Related to a host of winners, he’s undoubtedly a staying chaser for further down the line but he’s shown enough to suggest he can win here on his hurdling debut over a trip that will be shorter than ideal.

His seasonal debut in a Cheltenham bumper was highly encouraging, and he led the field down the hill before lacking the gears of the leading quarter; the winner had won again since while the fourth was third in the listed bumper at the November meeting and probably should have won.

That’s standout form in this lineup and while the yard wouldn’t be known for hurdling debutant winners, Tim Vaughan told me that this is their most exciting prospect and so a big run should be expected.

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Gris Gris Top

I flagged this horse up in a recent eye-catchers column for horseracing.net

Read more of my thoughts on him here: https://www.horseracing.net/news/cheltenham-2022-ante-post-tips-eklat-de-rire-gold-cup

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Captain Quint

Rose Dobbin is a trainer on the rise, thanks partly down to an influx of talented young horses into her yard.

Prior to this season, she had a lowly 2.6% S/R with hurdling debutants; this season, three of her six hurdling debutants have won with another finishing second.

That is also representative of her generally impressive start to this season, as she is currently operating at a 30% S/R (A/E 1.67).

Captain Quint boats a similar profile to recent winner Gentlemain De Mai; an expensive purchase after finishing second in a point to point behind a very highly touted prospect.

In Captain Quint’a case, he was second to £310k Cheveley Park purchase, Guily Billy. While that rival did disappoint on his rules debut, he still remains a promising individual given the time of his point win was extremely quick. Captain Quint was only four lengths down that day, with the nearest pursuer over fifteen lengths adrift (that rival has placed in a couple of maiden hurdles in Ireland and is now with Neil Mulholland – and rated 110)

While this is a fairly big field, I can’t see many that set a decent standard to aim at and I get the impression that this is a very winnable race for Captain Quint.

2:30 Ffos Las – Jazz King 6/1 E/W

3:15 Stratford – Tip Top Mountain 12/1 E/W

4:50 Ffos Las – Mr Harp 12/1 E/W

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Jazz King

Sam Thomas is very much a trainer in focus right now following Before Midnight’s emphatic Cheltenham success and the fact that his runners are normally raring to go first time out.

And he runs an interesting type in this competitive maiden hurdle in the form of Jazz King; he has been quoted as saying “I hold him in high regard”.

The form of both his bumpers have worked out well, with multiple winners coming out of his first race at Hereford while the winner at Fontwell finished fourth in a listed race next time out and the third is now rated 116 over hurdles.

You can also upgrade his most recent run as he did not get the run of the race at all. Held up in midfield, he found himself blocked off on multiple occasions and couldn’t get a clear run until it was too late. He stayed on well with the front two clear and he was conceding a lot of weight to the winner.

He shapes as though this intermediate trip will suit and any further rain should not be an inconvenience. Since the 2019/20 season, Sam Thomas’s hurdle debutants have records form figure of: 1252434115 – 3 wins and 3 placed from 10 runners (A/E 2.05)

This should be an informative race with some big yards represented and some interesting profiles on show but Jazz King is taken to uphold his trains excellent start to the season.

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Tip Top Mountain

Bought for £30,000 after making all in a point to point, he made his debut for Robert Walford just over a month later. He ran three times in two mile novice hurdles in the span of forty-three days and I’m of the view that they were just trying to get a mark. In fact, he was declared for a novice handicap chase towards the end of last season but was taken out on account of the soft ground.

Given his physique and his background, he was always going to be seen to better over effect once sent chasing and upped in trip; it’s also worth noting that his point win came on good and his best hurdles run was on a sound surface too so conditions appear to be in his favour today.

Robert Walford has only sent twelve runners to Stratford in recent years, with three of them winning (A/E 2.22). Tip Top Mountain is his only runner for the yard, while his trainer also has a fair 18% S/R with chase debutants in handicaps (A/E 1.18).

He likes to ridden prominently which suits the track and while there are a few interesting rivals, Tip Top Mountain is taken to make a winning chasing debut.

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Mr Harp

In a race seemingly full of horses that will be back over fences sooner rather than later, the progressive Mr Harp appeals as a solid proposition here.

Ground versatile, Mr Harp quickly developed into a useful novice last term, winning off an opening mark of 115 before finishing a valiant second to Imperial Alcazar in a Pertemps qualifier, with Pertemps Final third Come On Teddy back in third.

Second in a Grade 2 novice hurdles next time out, he was well beaten that day and he was fortunate to finish second but he did finish ahead of some useful rivals. Disappointing on his most recent start where he was probably over the top following a long season, he has now been dropped to a mark of 125 which looks very workable.

Gladiateur Allen represents the biggest danger to the selection following an impressive first season under rules and two very respectable efforts in competitive handicaps. Three miles looks sure to suit.

2:30 Chepstow – Docpickedme 11/2

5:20 Chepstow – Stanley Pincombe 14/1 E/W

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Docpickedme

A useful novice hurdler last season, it was only a matter of time before Docpickedme transitioned to fences. His point to point victory reads well, with Patroclus (2nd, rated 129), Gaston Phebus (3rd, rated 129) and Carrolls Cottage (4th, rated 130 in Ireland) giving the race plenty of substance. While point to point form doesn’t always translate to the track, it would be disappointing if Docpickedme couldn’t prove better than a mark of 118 now switched to chasing.

Well supported on his handicap hurdle debut four weeks ago, he shaped as if in need of the run and with Harry Whittington noting before the season begun that chasing was the plan, it’s likely that he’ll have improved plenty for his seasonal reappearance.

By Getaway, there is an abundance of stamina in his pedigree and so this staying trip on a sound surface should be ideal and a bold run is expected.

Harry Whittington has a respectable 20% strike rate with his chase debutants while he’s also two from two with his runners at Chepstow making their debuts over the larger obstacles.

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Stanley Pincombe

Given some very favourable mentions before the start of the season, Stanley Pincombe wasn’t without support on his most recent start but like so many of Chris Gordon’s, ended up looking in desperate need of the run. In fact, he ran on the same card as Lord Baddesley who I will be very interested in next time out.

His trainer reported that he had “come on massively” for his very promising debut last season and I find it interesting that they’ve come back for another bumper; perhaps they feel that there’s unfinished business in this sphere as Chris Gordon wouldn’t be one to over expose his horses in this discipline. He’s also 1/1 with bumper horses at Chepstow.

Fergus Gillard is a good booking for this conditional/amateurs race and although some big yards are represented here, Stanley Pincombe has experience and fitness on his side and so represents a good E/W bet given how well the yards horses were going at Cheltenham.

3:05 – Bardenstown Lad 9/2

4:50 – Defuture is Bright 7/1 E/W

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Bardenstown Lad

John McConnell has enjoyed some decent success at this meeting in recent years, with two of his six runners winning with a further one hitting the frame.

He also won this race last year with Streets of Doyen and he looks to have a good chance here with Bardenstown Lad.

A real galloping type, he’s won two of his three starts over hurdles (also a point/bumper winner) with his only defeat coming last time out in a race that placed a greater emphasis on speed which certainly didn’t suit. The winner, Tullybeg, is currently the favourite for the Pertemps Qualifier on Saturday from a mark of 140 while the fourth is also well fancied for the same race. So while he might have something to find on official ratings, a case can be made for him having the best form in the race and he’s race-fit unlike many of his rivals.

This race should be an ideal test and he could be a similar type to Streets of Doyen in that he’ll be given a break after this before returning in the spring with the festival in mind.

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Defuture Is Bright

It wouldn’t surprise me if this race has been the target for some time.

He was a progressive type over fences last season and we was very well backed when winning on his second start last term. His reappearance behind Bravemansgame was likely just a pipe opener with a return to handicapping in mind.

He ended last season well and perhaps should have won at Haydock in class 2 company having coasted to the front in the manner of a well handicapped horse before being mugged late on.

Rob James is an eye catching jockey booking and is excellent value for his claim, and he has experience of landing big handicap chases at Cheltenham (albeit his 2020 Kim Muir win came on the new course).

Still lightly raced, I think there’s still more to come from this horse and with the cheekpieces being reapplied having been left off last time out, he looks primed for a big run.

2:30 – No Risk Des Flos 7/1 E/W

An interesting, tight handicap with a nice mix of profiles, but No Risk Des Flos has threatened to be a very nice horse for some time and it would be a tad disappointing if he couldn’t prove better than a mark of 128.

A useful novice last season, he was still quite raw but he demonstrated a good level of ability when winning two of his five starts over hurdles and running with credit on two other starts. His most recent run was his most disappointing, but it’s entirely possible that he was over the top by that stage and I’m happy to forgive that effort.

His pedigree suggests he will relish this step up in trip, with Olly Murphy reportedly keen to keep him over the minimum distance last season due to his immaturity. Following a break, he should be closer to the finished article and the extra distance can help him find some improvement.

The trainer hasn’t made a blistering start to the season but there have been better signs in past week, with a couple of short priced winners while others have ran with plenty of credit too. It’s also worth noting that Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate at Fontwell although most of those wins have come at relatively short prices.

There are dangers in this lineup but I think No Risk Des Flos could develop into a type that is competing in some of the higher quality handicaps throughout the season.