Last season, I published my first “Horses to Follow” list. As stated in the introduction twelve months ago, there are a host of superb books and guides that document horses to keep onside throughout the season so I wanted to do something different.
The idea was to keep it fresh and discuss horses that perhaps wouldn’t be the first name on everyone’s lips.
With that in mind, I decided to comprise my list solely of horses that failed to win a race last season.
With eleven of the twenty horses featured in last season’s guide managing to record a win during the 2020/21 season, and following your tremendous support for it, I have decided to do the same again for the 2021/22 season.
Thanks again to each and every one of you in advance for the support on this little project of mine! It truly means a lot and I hope you all find it beneficial for the season ahead!
Please note: The horses mentioned below are in alphabetical order. I do not recommend backing them all blindly. Always consider their price and the conditions of the race that they line up in before placing a bet.
P.S – A big thank you to the connections of the horses mentioned below that took the time to provide some insight!
1. A Distant Place
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
Last Season’s Form: 422
Described as a “grand horse”, A Distant Place was recommended to current connections by Derek O’Connor, who rode him on two of his three stars in point-to-points, including his win which came at the third attempt.
He caught my eye on his debut for Jonjo O’Neill, which came in a competitive novice hurdle at Newton Abbot. There were many signs of greenness early on, both in terms of his jumping and in how he seemingly wanted to go faster than Jonjo Jr would allow. Given a patient, educational ride, A Distant Place was last bar one as the field approached the second from home as Jonjo Jr gently urged his mount along without ever asking for maximum effort. After looking as though he was destined to fall out the back of the screen, he reappeared on the turn for home seemingly with a fair amount left to give; the race was long gone, but he stayed on nicely to finish fourth. His run led to a steward’s enquiry, with the officials pointing out that he “appeared to be ridden with tender handling when turning into the home straight”. It’s also worth noting that the two-mile-and-one-furlong trip around a tight track like Newton Abbot was never going to see A Distant Place to best effect, while he was also up against some useful rivals; the front three are now rated 128, 130 and 130 respectively.
Next seen out at Hereford, another tight track, and still racing over the minimum distance, there was a marked change in tactics as A Distant Place was sent forward with the intention of making all. Unsurprisingly, the more positive tactics produced an improved performance as he would finish a valiant second, only to be denied Benson who is now rated 137 although the winner was carrying a six-pound penalty. The pair pulled thirteen lengths clear of the remainder and while there was certainly no shame in his performance, A Distant Place left the impression that there was more to come. Jonjo Jr reported that his mount ran green which was evident at multiple points in the race; he appeared to hang out to his left at stages which saw him go quite wide round the bend at the end of the first circuit while he also jumped out to his left multiple times. Regardless, this was a fine effort and it was certainly a step in the right direction.
Given a mark of 120 after those efforts, he was pitched into handicap company for his third start in just fifty-four days. While the step up to two-and-a-half miles promised to suit, it was his first time encountering heavy ground which wasn’t sure to suit. Despite some poor jumping, A Distant Place crept nicely into contention and traded at a low of 1.54 in running on route to a narrow second place finish.
That was another good run and while he appeared to handle the heavy ground well enough, I do believe he will prove a better horse on a sounder surface; his sire, Sunday Break, wouldn’t be the most fashionable National Hunt sire around but a lot his more reputable progeny in the jumps sphere have done well on good ground, while a similar comment could apply to his progeny on the flat, although admittedly this is still quite small sample and so a strong conclusion about A Distance Place’s preferences should not be made this way.
A Distant Place had what I would view as a very educational season last year, which isn’t uncommon for Jonjo O’Neill’s younger horses. Following three runs in quick succession, he was put away perhaps with a view to the long term which ultimately lies over fences; the break certainly wouldn’t have done him any harm. He has plenty of scope and his pointing experience will hold him in good stead over the larger obstacles, while it’s also worth noting that his dam is a half-sister to a Grade 1 winning chaser in France. While he went up two pounds for his handicap debut, a mark of 122 remains workable and he will be of interest in novice handicap chases. Three miles will suit in time.
Joe O’Neill (Racing Manager for Jonjo O’Neill):“A Distant Place will come back in to training soon and likely to go over hurdles and then chasing”
2. Aucunrisque
Trainer: Chris Gordon
Last Season’s Form: 2
When I initially contacted Chris Gordon, I enquired about Go Whatever but he informed with he had an infection which “knocked him sideways” and that “I couldn’t recommend him” until he has run again.
Following that unfortunate news, I started to look at other horses in the yard, in part due to my fondness for the trainer and his impressive consistency and strike-rate in recent seasons despite not having the biggest stable nor the most expensive.
And with that, I stumbled upon Aucunrisque.
Not many would be looking to a Stratford bumper in late March for a horse to follow, but there was a lot to like about his debut under rules. Having travelled keenly throughout, the contest quickly developed into a two-horse race as they entered the final furlong, with Aucunrisque being the only one of the chasing pack that had the pace to go with the Skelton’s Get Sky High, who would go on to make all. Although the latter had the initiative, Aucunrisque kept on well and closed on the winner all the way to the line; the front pair pulled thirteen lengths clear of the remainder. The winner had already run very well in two bumpers and so had an experience and fitness edge so it was a very encouraging effort from the debutant.
While Chris Gordon does have a respectable 10% strike rate in bumpers, they do not tend to win first time out; in fact, his strike rate with horses having their first run in a bumper is just 3.6%. In a recent interview, the Hampshire based trainer noted “I don’t want them to win bumpers first time out, I don’t think it does them a world of good. I want them to go there and have a nice time”.
Unsurprisingly therefore, his strike-rate increases to 15% when looking at those who were running in a bumper for the second time. They’re also profitable to back blind; the A/E is 1.53 while backing all of them blind would have yielded a ROI of 71% at SP.
If we assess Chris Gordon’s batch of novice hurdles from last season, which were a decent crop, we can see that the majority of them did not win a bumper first time out, with Smurphy Enki being the notable exception; some did go on to taste success in that sphere (Mount Windsor and Pasvolsky), others did not (Annual Invictus & Press Your Luck only ran in one bumper, Lord Baddesley and Twominutes Turkish came up short twice).
Regardless of whether they won a bumper, it is clear that they were all primed for success over hurdles, with four of the seven mentioned above winning first time out over obstacles.
Aucunrisque looks likely to run in one more bumper before going hurdling and he will be of interest in both spheres. He moved nicely on his rules debut while he did run well in his two most recent starts in point-to-points. He also comes from a source that the yard has had plenty of success with. Recently purchased by Goodwin Racing, he looks a shrewd buy and he looks to have a good future under rules.
Chris Gordon: “He wouldn’t be a bad one to pick- a nice horse and yes owned by Goodwin Racing. He will probably be aimed at a bumper and then go novice hurdling”
3. Cill Anna
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Last Season’s Form: 062
Described as a “Big, strong filly” by Paul Nicholls when she was a four-year-old, she developed into a very useful performer over hurdles in her debut season under rules. After a fine third behind Kissesforkatie on her first start over timber, she subsequently won her next three starts which included a victory at listed level, capping a productive season in fine style.
Beginning last season on a mark of 135, she made her reappearance in a competitive handicap hurdle at Wincanton over an intermediate trip. She showed up well for a long time before being headed on the turn for home and eventually finished well beaten in tenth; while it was a tad disappointing, her trainer had stated before the season started that “she always needs a run or two to sharpen her up” and the quick ground also wouldn’t have been optimal with the bulk of her rivals being race fit with form over shorter trips on good ground. As such, there are reasons to forgive that effort.
Similar comments apply to her next effort, which came in a listed race at Kempton just sixteen days later. She was up in trip but again the ground was quicker than ideal and she struggled as the tempo quickened.
With those efforts behind her, connections decided to embark on a novice chase campaign, with her one and only run over fences coming on Boxing Day at Wincanton over two-and-a-half miles. Her jumping was very good, displaying plenty of scope when she met a fence on a long stride while also being clever enough to pop one if she was in too tight. For the bulk of the race, she was locked in a battle with the smart mare, Momella, who once finished third in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and who boasted more experience over fences while she was coming off an emphatic win just nine days ago. Cill Anna jumped the last still holding every chance but a slight peck on landing ended her hopes of victory as Momella recorded a two-length success; the winner went on to win a listed race just two months later. Despite not getting her head in front, it was a very promising debut over the larger obstacles and it reinforced the idea that she probably needs three miles in order to be seen to best effect.
While she hasn’t been since, if all is well then this season promises to be a good one for the six-year-old mare with her novice status still intact. At her best when the ground is deep, she appears to be a very uncomplicated ride and I would expect her to develop into a mare capable of winning at listed level over fences although it is worth considering that she often needs a couple of runs before she’s at her best, so bare that in mind when assessing her chances.
4. Clondaw Caitlin
Trainer: Ruth Jefferson
Last Season’s Form: 32
Sold for £40,000 in May 2019 following a second-place finish in her third and final run in a point-to-point, Clondaw Caitlin quickly proved to be a shrewd purchase by winning four of her five starts in her debut season; which concluded with a victory in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle beating a host of talented geldings.
While the following season wasn’t as productive, there were still some promising signs and plenty of reason to expect a more successful 2021/22 campaign.
Given her point-to-point background, it was no surprise to see her switched to fences with her debut over the larger obstacles coming at Cheltenham in October. On what was also her first start over three miles, a trip which has always looked like suiting, she was patiently ridden and her jumping was efficient. While she never looked like winning, she stayed on nicely under a considerate ride from Brian Hughes to finish third in what was a warm race; the winner, Galvin, won the National Hunt Chase on his next start while the second, Soldier of Love, had already won four times over fences before that run.
Following that, it was reported in December that she suffered a small stress fracture that meant she would not run again for a few months. In a sensible move, Ruth Jefferson decided to send her back over hurdles for what would be her second and final run on the season. Having travelled well throughout, she moved up threateningly to challenge on the run the omitted second last she just couldn’t find the extra required to beat Prince Kayf, who was race fit and thrown in off his mark of 123 based on his win in the 2019 French Furze.
Still only a six-year-old, she is likely to head back over fences and with her novice status intact, there ought to be plenty of opportunities for her. She handles a variety of ground and while her victories came over trips ranging from two-miles to two-and-a-half miles, she will have no problem stepping up again to three-miles and that may be where she shows her best form. Currently on a mark of 135, handicaps are an option but given she still qualifies for novice chases and the expansion of the mares’ programme, I expect her to stick primarily to races against her own sex where she would appear to have an excellent chance of gaining some black type over the larger obstacles.
Ruth Jefferson: “She ran once over fences last year then picked up an injury to her pelvis. She ran a nice race back over hurdles giving 15lb to the winner. I didn’t run her at Sandown as I thought the ground was too quick.
She will return to chasing. If the ground is quick earlier in the season she may have a run over hurdles to start but the plan is chasing. Effective on all ground bar quick, should stay 3 miles but pacy enough to stay at 2m 4f for now.”
5. Coconut Splash
Trainer: Evan Williams
Last Season’s Form: 322
Few things on Racing Twitter elicit excitement like a lightly raced, well handicapped novice chaser, especially when the Spring festivals are on the horizon.
And while the Novices’ Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival is no more, there were still plenty of punters hoping that Coconut Splash would make an appearance in the Sandown equivalent or indeed at any of the big end of season meetings; unfortunately for them, he didn’t – but on the plus side, his absence secured his place on this list.
The winner of a four-year-old maiden point in April 2019, he was subsequently sold for £180,000 just a few weeks later. He enjoyed a productive first season under rules, narrowly being denied by the now 147-rated Imperial Alcazar on rules debut by a nose before falling when holding every chance on his second start in a competitive contest over the minimum trip. He broke his maiden at the third attempt, beating a couple of useful types in relatively cosy fashion before being put away for the remainder of the season; Evan Williams and the Ruckers tend to take the patient approach with their younger horses and Coconut Splash was no exception.
Only a five-year-old as last season began, some thought that connections might give him one more season over hurdles but they instead decided to make haste in sending their promising youngster, who certainly promised to be a very nice chaser, straight over fences.
His debut over the larger obstacles was full of promise; his jumping was sound in the main and considering he was conceding rate fitness to most, he ran on nicely to finish third in a race that developed into a sprint over the minimum trip which was never going to suit Coconut Splash.
With his mark of 131 untouched after that run, he was sent off a well fancied 15/8 favourite on his next start which saw him stepping up to two-and-a-half miles. He was unfortunate to bump into the classy Messire Des Obeaux; a former Grade 1 winning hurdler who was on the comeback trail, but his subsequent Grade 2 success over fences proved that this performance was no fluke and it certainly gave a favourable rub to Coconut Splash, who only finished a couple of lengths behind him under a considerate ride with the winner being ridden far more aggressively; this pair pulled a dozen lengths clear of the remainder.
Coconut Splash’s final start of the season came in a Novice Chase at Wetherby. In a typical race of its kind, he would’ve been a warm order favourite but once again he found himself against a very classy rival; this time, it was the subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner, Chantry House. Despite receiving weight from that rival, he was ultimately outclassed but again he ran an admirable race in defeat with only three lengths separating them at the line with a further sixteen lengths back to The Wolf in third.
Currently on a mark of 137, he will be of major interest in handicaps for the season ahead and I’m sure connections will be hoping they can land a decent prize with him. Still unexposed over three miles, I see no reason why he wouldn’t stay that far in time which will certainly increase the options available to Evan Williams. All in all, it would be disappointing if he remains a maiden over fences for long.
6. Dalamoi
Trainer: Tim Vaughan
Last Season’s Form: 2
On an innocuous Thursday afternoon in late April, as the jumps season was coming to a close, one of the more competitive and intriguing bumpers of the season took place.
With top yards being represented (including Nicky Henderson who ran a LTO winner, and Nigel Twiston-Davies whose representative was heavily backed throughout the day) and a healthy mixture of newcomers and runners with a fair level of form already in the book, it promised to be an informative contest.
While Dalamoi just failed to get his head in front, there was a lot to like about his racecourse debut. Buried amongst horses in midfield for the majority of the contest, he was seen travelling better than most as the tempo increased down the backstraight. As they swung for home, his path was blocked by the eventual fourth, Sister Michael, which handed the initiative to the eventual winner, Revasser, who was also making his debut and is closely related to Le Reve. Once in the clear, Dalamoi showed signs of greenness as he hung notably to the left inside the final two furlongs despite Alan Johns’ urgings and use of the whip on the left side. Still, he kept up the gallop as the front three forged clear and actually traded at 1.01 in running but he failed to reel in the winner.
Described by Lizzie Kelly as “a nice scopey type” after the race, his pedigree also matches his impressive looks and apparent ability. He’s a half-brother to five winners, including Politesse, Tim Vaughan’s former stable-star Debece and the three-time Grade 1 winning chaser, Don Poli. Dalamoi’s sire, Pour Moi, made the switch to jumps mares back in 2017 after a disappointing career as a flat sire, despite Wings of Eagles emulating his father by winning the Derby. With that in mind, there isn’t too much to assess by the way of his offspring over jumps but he has produced some good young hurdlers and the best could be yet to come.
While still only a four-year-old, Dalamoi’s size and scope would suggest that his long-term future would be as a chaser. Taking that into consideration, this season is likely to be spent hurdling although connections could look to win a bumper before sending him over hurdles; something which has already been considered by his trainer as you will see in the quote below.
Either way, he looks to be an exciting horse for his yard and I’m sure they’re hoping that, in time, he can replicate or even surpass the accomplishments of his half-brother and yard stalwart, Debece.
Tim Vaughan: “He looks a massively exciting horse for this coming season, my best hope in fact. He has had a good summers break and due to come back in on July 1st with the aim of running in mid-October onwards. As he ran so well, I may give him another run in a bumper and then crack on over hurdles after this unless he bolted up in his bumper and then possibly, we could keep him as a bumper horse for the season although this is very unlikely due to his size and physique hurdling would seem the right route. He will be kept to good ground or slower on big galloping tracks.”
7. Ewood Park
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Last Season’s Form: 4U63
With Max McNeil being a big Blackburn Rovers fan, you would have suspected that he would’ve reserved the name of their illustrious stadium for an exciting recruit; and while he perhaps hasn’t lived up to expectations just yet, Ewood Park has time of his hands and better can be expected this season.
Ready to run in the Spring of 2020 according to Adrian Heskin (as noted in Paul Ferguson’s JTF 2020/2021), the pandemic meant he couldn’t debut until October with his first run coming in a Newton Abbot bumper. Out wide and in rear throughout much of the race, Olly Murphy’s newcomer began to make steady headway as the field approached the end of the backstraight as he weaved in between rivals who were struggling to deal with the uptick in tempo. In seventh as the field turned for home, Adrian Heskin began to ask his mount a question and while the response wasn’t immediate, he did stay on in dogged fashion to get up for fourth close to home, and he only just failed to snatch third. The front three from that race have proven to be useful types; the winner, Onemorefortheroad, is now rated 126 over hurdles having won a couple of handicaps in March 2021 while the runner up, who in turn pulled seven lengths clear of the remainder, won his only two subsequent starts including a listed race. Even the third, Pozo Emery, has done well since with him failing to finish outside the first two in three starts in novice hurdles, earning a mark of 129 while the fifth won his next start. It’s also worth noting that the three aforementioned horses were ridden close to or on the pace while Ewood Park was the sole runner to make significant progress from the rear.
Quickly switched to hurdles, he made his debut over obstacles at Wetherby over two-miles. He was ridden patiently in what was a slowly run affair and he turned for home in ninth place as the race developed into a relative sprint. While he never looked like winning, he was keeping on very nicely on the run to the final flight, which he jumped in fourth before unseating his rider. Despite that race ending blunder, he again displayed plenty of promise and the front three have added substance to the form; the third and second are both now rated in the 120’s while the winner was Third Time Lucki, who is now rated 143 following a very productive season.
His second start over hurdles was a step in the wrong direction but he was better on his most recent outing when finishing a staying on third at Doncaster after the turn of the year. Again, the horses in the surrounding places have proven to be of a good standard with both the first and second now rated in the 130s while the fourth, Truckers Pass is clearly a horse of fair ability even if he does his best not to show it at times.
A setback thereafter brought his season to a premature end but he still has youth and time on his side, while his opening mark of 112 looks potentially lenient. All of his starts to date have come over the minimum trip and he is crying out for more of a stamina test. By Shirocco out of an unraced dam that is closely related to the dual Grade 1 winner Mansony, he is bred to be better than he’s shown and strikes me as the type that will improve markedly once stepping up in trip in handicaps. It’s also interesting to note that he’s often been weak in the betting on his racecourse appearances to date, which perhaps could be symptomatic of him needing a season to mature and develop.
Olly Murphy: “Ewood park is a horse who will improve when stepping in to a handicap. He had a setback at the back end of last season, so won’t be seen until Christmas time.”
The McNeil Family (@McNeill_Family): “He’s summered well. He is having the injury looked at next week to see if he’s ready to come into training. That’s why he didn’t run after Doncaster. Last season was ok. Happy with his bumper run, happy with his hurdling debut (until the last!) and his Doncaster run was fine. He disappointed at Newcastle. I think he is well handicapped and will end the season higher than he’s rated. Also, a blessing he’s got a mark already so doesn’t need to waste run(s) in novice company. Obviously with the name he’s one we think will be nice. Think I A Connect & Where It All Began to other horses of ours who didn’t win last season who will be worth following over hurdles.”
8. Famoso
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Last Season’s Form: 48032
Purchased for €175,000 as a three-year-old, Famoso is a half-brother to Tornado Flyer and out of a half-sister to Hurricane Fly; his physique certainly matches his impressive pedigree and so it was no surprise that he fetched such a hefty fee.
With Nicholls waxing lyrical about his crop of younger horses at the beginning of the season, hopes were high for Famoso ahead of his racecourse debut, which came in a Chepstow bumper that his trainer won in 2017 & 2018 with Mont Des Avaloirs and McFabulous respectively. Sent off a warm order 8/11 favourite, he travelled well throughout but folded very tamely once push came to shove, eventually finishing last of the four runners.
That was not the ideal start, and the result wasn’t much better on his second and final start in a bumper; it was a similar story to Chepstow, with Famoso seemingly going well for most of the way before falling away rather quickly inside the furlong final. Following that, Nicholls said “(he) disappointed us. I think he’ll leave that form well behind and I’m going to get him going over hurdles because I think he wants a trip”.
After a three-month absence, Famoso duly made his debut over hurdles at Wincanton over an intermediate trip, but yet again there would be disappointment. Sent off relatively unfancied, he was very keen through the race with Bryony’s arms in constant motion as she attempted in vain to restrain her mount. To his credit, he was still in the firing line as they left the backstraight and he actually traded at around even money at one stage before his early exertions caught up with him.
Following that run, he was dropped back in trip to two-miles and ridden with more restraint, which brought about a more encouraging finishing effort. The only runner to make up ground from the back of the field, he stayed on nicely to finish a narrow third; the second, who has since filled the same position twice in two subsequent starts, is now rated 119.
Ridden more positively on his final start of the season, there were still signs of immaturity but again he was strong at the line as he narrowly failed to peg back the front-running winner, who is rated 115.
While Famoso hasn’t quite lived up to his potential as of yet, there were plenty of promising signs on his last two starts and a summer break would have done this raw, imposing horse the world of good. Given his stature, he will almost certainly benefit from a switch to chasing while a step up in trip looks sure to suit as he learns to settle. From his mark of 111, I can envisage him making a strong impression in novice handicap chases next season although given his youth and lack of experience, he may well run over hurdles a couple more times.
9. Here We Have It
Trainer: Laura Morgan
Last Season’s Form: 22
Laura Morgan is a trainer I have a lot of respect for; she seems to significantly overachieve with her small string of horses and she is certainly a trainer on the up.
Here We Have It is the first of two from the yard to feature from this list. While there are more letters than numbers in his point-to-point form (failed to complete in five of his eight starts), the three times he managed to get around were very promising displays. He finished second on each occasion to very promising horses: Sir Sholokov (sold for £80,000, has since won two of his three starts over fences), Minella Escape (sold for £100,000, now with Henry De Bromhead) and Oscar Elite (second in the Albert Bartlett).
He made his rules debut in a fairly modest looking bumper at Carlisle towards the end of November. The market support was notable and after travelling well and surging into a three-length lead as the leaders entered the final furlong, it seemed almost certain that the support would be justified. However, he quickly tied up inside the final half a furlong allowing the race-fit Aviewtosea, who has since won over three miles, to head him close to home. It appeared to be a lack of fitness relative to his rival that cost him the race rather than a poor attitude and while the race did look fairly modest on paper, the front three in the market pulled well clear with the third, Guardino, winning next time out.
Turned out less than three weeks later for his next start, Here We Have It found himself racing over hurdles sporting cheekpieces and a tongue-tie; perhaps connections were questioning his attitude after his narrow defeat last time out. Racing out wide and a tad keen, he travelled menacingly as the field approached the final couple of furlongs, with Conor O’Farrell yet to ask his mount for maximum effort and apparently content to track the leading duo. Once popped the question, the winner had already sewn the race up with a good jump at the last and Here We Have It didn’t have the turn of foot to challenge him, although he did stay on nicely to reduce the deficit to three lengths at the line. The winner was Tommy’s Oscar who was having his third run of what would turn out to be a remarkable season; he would win four of his seven starts over hurdles as well finishing placed in the Scottish Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Scottish Champion Hurdle, ending the season on a mark of 139. When jumping the last, Here We Have It was sharing second with a 100/1 outsider, Wicked West, when the latter took a tumbling fall. However, he would go on to prove that it was no fluke, as he has since won a pair of handicaps for Dr Richard Newland and is now rated 128. All in all, that race has worked out well.
We haven’t seen Here We Have It since that run but his two starts under rules have demonstrated that he possesses plenty of ability. Being a maiden over hurdles and with plenty of experience in point-to-points, Laura has a plethora of options for him this season. What makes him even more exciting is that he has demonstrated the ability to travel well over the minimum trip but his pedigree is awash with stamina; by Mahler who typically produces stayers, he is a half-brother to Tuzo and Youknowell who have both won over staying trips. I see no reason why Here We Have It won’t cope with a step up in trip, but the one concern is the growing number of twos in his form figures. I haven’t seen enough evidence to describe him as a shirker just yet although the fact that connections reached for cheekpieces on his last run does leave a niggling doubt in my mind, although I am prepared to look past it for now.
It is also worth noting that while Laura Morgan’s strike-rate across the board is superb, her success with runners over fences is notably strong. Since 2018, she has operated a 22% strike-rate with her runners over fences, for an A/E of 1.3 while backing them all blind would’ve yielded an 87% ROI at SP. For comparison, her respective figures over hurdles are: 11.5% win-rate, A/E of 1.12 and an ROI of -9% at SP. With that in mind, pay particular attention to her runners over fences, including Here We Have It.
Laura Morgan: “Here we have it I rate very highly. I’d be hoping he could reach around 140 over fences. No one has seen the best of him yet. Three-miles and a fence will be the making of him. He will either start in a three-mile hurdle or go straight chasing. Not totally sure yet.”
10. Hope You Do
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Last Season’s Form: 553
A winner of a an AQPS flat race on his sole start in France, he was quickly snapped up by J.P. McManus and sent to Philip Hobbs; that combination has worked well in the past, with Defi Du Seuil being the prime example.
Subject to some kind words in the build up to last season, it was hoped that he could make up into a high-quality juvenile hurdler and he was subsequently sent off an even money favourite for his debut at Warwick. While he travelled well for a long way and traded at a low of 1.5 in running, he faded tamely in the straight as he eventually finished over twenty-one lengths behind the winner in fifth, for all that Richard Johnson looked after him once his chance was gone. Interestingly, the former champion jockey reported to the stewards that he was “never travelling”, which certainly didn’t seem to be the case upon viewing the race, with the vet initially failing to reveal any abnormalities post-race. However, given that it was his first run in England having only arrived a few months ago and considering he was then off the track for nearly four months, I am perfectly willing to excuse that run.
After that absence, he reappeared at Wincanton at the end of March, stepping out of juvenile company and taking on his elders in a maiden hurdle. In a race that was run at a strong pace, a group of five forged clear on the turn for home with Hope You Do again looking dangerous and trading at odds-on as they approached the second-last. Having jumped that hurdle with a share of the lead, he still held every chance at the last but a sloppy jump cost him any hope of winning as he eventually slipped back into fifth, for all that was only beaten by less than four lengths. The four that finished ahead of him were all more experienced and mature horses, one of whom you have already read about; Famoso finished third that day and was the only runner to challenge that came from off the pace. For Hope You Do, it was certainly a step in the right direction.
On his third and final start of last season, he was ridden with far more patience, eventually finishing third; the front two had been in those positions from flag fall with his old foe, Famoso, occupying second place. After making nice headway on the approach to the third last, Tom O’Brien did not give his mount a hard time but he still kept on nicely enough, leaving the impression that there would be more to come.
Throughout all of last season, Hope You Do left the impression that he was still maturing and that we would improve significantly for a summer break. While I am normally pessimistic about the chances of the previous season’s juvenile’s as they step into open company, I am encouraged by the fact that he has already performed credibly against his elders twice while it’s also important to note that he was not your typical forward three/four-year-old. An opening mark of 107 would be best described as “fair” based on what he has achieved thus far, I would be disappointed if he couldn’t leave that behind him this term.
Philip Hobbs: “Hope You Do is a horse with a good attitude that probably needed his first season in England to acclimatise and should improve. He has summered well and we hope his mark of 107 should be manageable”
11. Kearney Hill
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Last Season’s Form: 2
At our core, us National Hunt fans love nothing more than a plucky, determined horse that relishes a battle, which is exactly what Kearney Hill is.
After a couple of promising efforts in points-to-points, he was sold for £44,000. His rules debut was disappointing but following wind surgery and a three-month absence, he returned renewed and improved. A fine third at Sedgefield at big odds was followed by his first win under rules which came in a Musselburgh bumper. Despite being a 20/1 shot for a seven-runner race, Kearney Hill won gamely to deny the John McConnell raider, Hand In My Pocket, who would go on to win his next start; this duo pulled nine lengths clear of the remainder.
He would get his second victory a few weeks later, defying a penalty to beat the well supported Nells Son in another fierce battle. Those two pulled thirteen lengths clear of the rest while the runner-up has won both of his two starts since that race, giving the form a solid look to it.
Following a productive debut season under rules and with comments from the trainer indicating that he had done very well physically over the summer, it was hoped that Kearney Hill would make up into an above average novice hurdler.
His debut in that sphere came at the end of October at Wetherby over two-and-a-half-miles. As expected, given his uncomplicated nature, he took to it very well and put in an efficient round of jumping on route to a solid second place finish. The front five at the head of the market pulled clear and a while Kearney Hill was the first to come under pressure, he stuck to his task well but found Ashtown Lad too strong; the winner made all of the running and has proven himself to be very useful, reaching a mark of 135 while he also had the benefit of race fitness. The third and fourth have also proven themselves to be fair horses and are now rated 120 and 119 respectively.
We haven’t seen Kearney Hill since and while that is a concern, I am presuming all is well and in which case he should prove up to winning over hurdles this season based on his previous outing. A maiden/novice hurdle should be within his remit but he will also be of strong interest in handicaps (mark dependent) given how straightforward he appears to be. While two-and-a-half miles is fine for now, he will appreciate stepping up to staying trips in time as he looks like a pure galloper.
12. Mossy Fen
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Last Season’s Form: 4P
An imposing son of Milan, Mossy Fen enjoyed a very productive first season under rules which saw him win three of his five starts, including a Grade 2, before finishing a valiant fifth in a strong renewal of the Ballymore.
Given his point-to-point background and his imposing frame, it was not surprising to see him switched to fences after just one season over hurdles, with many thinking that he could take high rank in the staying novice chase division.
Sent off a 5/2 shot on his debut over the larger obstacles, his rivals included the race-fit and prolific Soldier of Love, the future National Hunt Chase winner Galvin and one of the other horses on this list, Clondaw Caitlin. After jumping right on occasion, he straightened up once he found himself in a more prominent position and he only faded late on, shaping well until the turn for home where he just appeared to tire, eventually finishing fourth. Still, it was an encouraging effort.
It would later transpire that he injured his right knee during that race and so his disappointing performance on his next start, which came just three weeks later, can and should be forgiven. After that, with the season drawing to a close, connections sensibly decided to take him out of training with a view to next season; a decision which should see them reap the rewards in the coming months.
With his novice status intact and considering that he’s still only a six-year-old, the world is still his oyster and the extended break wouldn’t have done him any harm. If you go through some of his past form, some of it now reads very well; he beat the now 140-rated Somptueux in his point-to-point while he had the now 150-rated (chase) Shan Blue and the 149-rated Decor Irlandais behind him in his Grade 2 victory back in January 2020. As such, there are reasons to believe that a rating of 139 might underestimate Mossy Fen at present although he may well develop into a graded novice chaser as the season develops.
Carl Hinchy (Owner): “Mossy was pulled out of training in February as it was clear time was running out for him. He has been in light work at our pre training yard just steady road work and we won’t be sending him back into training until mid to late august. It follows I will be in no hurry with him and he will not be rushing to compete in early season big track novice chases. There is no consequence to him jumping right at Cheltenham other than he had injured his right knee. He won at Warwick Worcester and Aintree the season before which are all left-handed tracks. The year off will have done him no harm as he was a young horse still only 6. We still hope that he is an outstanding staying chasing prospect and I would hope he will turn up well handicapped in the top staying chases in the second half of the season.”
13. Overcourt
Trainer: Sandy Thomson
Last Season’s Form: 24
Long-term followers might recall me mentioning this horse in just the second edition of my short-lived series, “Eye-catchers of the week” back in early 2020. He caught my attention that day following an improved effort behind two useful types and after being allocated an opening mark of 110, he duly won his next two starts which both came in handicap company.
After a progressive first season under rules, Sandy Thomson quickly sent his improving six-year-old over fences, with his debut over the larger obstacles coming in October 2020 at Sedgefield. Despite being the lowest rated of the field (barring one who did not have an official rating), the son of Court Cave ran a superb race to finish second, just under two lengths behind the winner with the pair pulling seven lengths clear of the third. Speaking of the winner, Mr Muldoon, he went on to run a great race in a competitive race at Ascot before bolting up in a Sedgefield handicap; he is now rated 141. Of the others to compete in that race, the third, fourth and sixth have all won twice over fences since and are now rated 129, 135 and 135 respectively.
His debut effort over fences was an impressive one; his jumping was sound and the two-and-a-half trip around Sedgefield on ground quicker than ideal would’ve been on the sharp side for him so you can mark that effort up even more. Sandy reported that he was a bit jarred up following that run and given that his two wins have come on testing ground, I anticipate that you won’t see him on the track unless there is an element of soft in the going description from here on out.
Due in part to that setback, we only saw Overcourt on the track one more time last season and that was back over hurdles at Carlisle in February. Although he was well beaten, he shaped better than the bare result and his performance would not have been helped by his interrupted season.
But on the plus side, he remains very lightly raced for his age and on the form of his sole run over fences, his mark of 120 over fences makes a well handicapped horse. Yet to race over trips further that two-and-a-half miles, his dam won over three-and-a-half miles and based on his run style, I expect him to improve for a step up to staying trips. Sandy Thomson is an incredibly shrewd trainer and I’m sure he will find plenty of suitable opportunities for Overcourt this season.
Sandy Thomson: “Overcourt will go chasing this season, he had one or two little niggles but hopefully he will fulfil the potential he showed us in the spring of 2020.”
14. Poldark Cross
Trainer: Harry Whittington
Last Season’s Form: 232
After winning his third start in a point-to-point by an emphatic eighteen lengths and recording a time sixteen seconds quicker than the day’s average, Poldark Cross was duly sold for a relatively modest £30,000.
The early word from behind the scenes was encouraging, with him being labelled as one of the stable’s “dark horses”, while Harry Whittington noted that he “looks a nice staying hurdler and then chaser”.
And his rules debut was full of promise, backing up the initial words of his trainer. Under a positive ride, Poldark Cross jumped nicely on the whole and he still held the lead as the leading trio jumped the third last, with the now 120-rated Jetaway Joey coming down at that obstacle when two lengths down and seemingly making no headway. He was eventually run down by Fern Hill, who had previously shaped with great promise behind Third Time Lucki and perhaps his race fitness just told inside the final furlong; the winner would go on to win again under a penalty next time out and is now rated 130.
Sent off the 11/4 joint-favourite on his next outing in what was a stronger race, he ran okay to finish third but given he finished ten lengths behind the front two, it could be judged as a slightly disappointing effort. It is worth noting that this run came on the 22nd December; he was the stables first runner for over three weeks after a virus ravaged the yard and while his effort may have been encouraging for them, it would be another six weeks before Harry Whittington would saddle a winner with the winless run totalling ninety-two days; unprecedented for a yard who have historically enjoyed a very high win percentage. With that in mind, I am inclined to forgive Poldark Cross’s second run.
A further note on the form of the Harry Whittington team last season; from the 2015/2016 period until the end of the 2019/2020 season, the yard averaged a win-rate of 17.53% with an A/E of 0.91, which is very impressive. The entirety of the 2020/2021 season was a tough period for the yard, with their win-rate dropping to 10.67% with an A/E of 0.66. While some of their stable stars have since been moved out of the yard, I still expect them to have a better season this time around in terms of win percentage.
Circling back to Poldark Cross, he would make his third and final appearance just five days after the Whittington team’s first win in three months. Allocated an opening mark of 115, which appeared quite lenient given his run behind Fern Hill and the exploits of the first, second and fifth from his second start, he found himself at the head of the market but again could only manage second. He did hit a low of 1.32 in running and he jumped the last with the lead before being run down late on; the race did develop into a bit of a sprint, with just four-and-a-half lengths separating the front five at the line. That was unlikely to suit Poldark Cross, who Harry Whittington said could see him running over three-miles later in the season, while he also quipped that “he just gallops”.
There is plenty of stamina in pedigree and given that all of his starts under rules thus far have come over an intermediate trip, there is every possibility that stepping up to three miles will eke out further improvement while a mark of 116 should be exploitable this season. It would seem inevitable that his long-term future lies over fences.
15. Signal Point
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Last Season’s Form: 23
Placed in a couple of bumpers towards the end of last season, I was impressed by the way she travelled into contention on both occasions and while she didn’t get her head in front, she left the impression that there are plenty of races to be won with her.
Easy to back on debut, she was given a very patient ride by Harry Skelton. Having travelled strongly throughout, Signal Point made stylish headway on the turn for home although she was forced wide in order to do so. As the front six entered the final three furlongs, she was still going well but found herself stuck behind a wall of horses as the race truly began to develop. Once a clear path emerged, she quickly set off in pursuit of the leader, who had been in the vanguard throughout, just failing to real her in and eventually finishing second. The race was quite slowly run, as most bumpers are, yet Signal Point ran the final four furlongs quicker than any other horse in the race. The winner, Lady Adare, was ridden positively and was subject to strong market support throughout the day; having been as big as 33/1 the evening before the race, she returned as the 9/2 second favourite and she has since been sold for £82,000. The third, Martha Willow, would frank the form by winning her next start.
A similar story emerged next time out as Signal Point headed to Cheltenham in April. With six furlongs to go, she was positioned in last bar one but could be spotted going notably well as a line of rivals stopped her from making much headway. As they rounded the turn and space opened up, she quickly went into fourth although she still had four lengths to make up with the leading duo. As push came to shove, she was quite green under pressure and hung notably to her left; she eventually straightened up but by that point the victory was out of reach and Harry took it easy on her from there as she eventually finished third. The front two were prominent throughout while the runner up had some strong form to her name, while Signal Point was the only runner to make meaningful headway from off the pace. Due to how late in the season this was run, we understandably haven’t seen the winner again since but she was talked up by her trainer after the race while Mel Rowley has enjoyed plenty of success in bumpers this year, operating at a strike rate of 22% with a further 35% of runners hitting the frame.
Given the way Signal Point travelled through both races, she could be a mare of a fair amount of ability. A €50,000 purchase as a three-year-old, she is a half-sister to the useful duo, Boot Camp and Duke Of Lucca, both of whom preferred a sounder surface. She is also a half-sister to the dam of If The Cap Fits while her dam is a half-sister to a couple of winners too. Given her pedigree and the fact that we’ve only seen her on a sound surface, it might be that she too prefers good ground and so we could see her out quite early in the season, although it is too soon to make that conclusion just yet. Either way, she looks capable of winning a bumper should connections go down that route before making a useful hurdler, where trips of two miles to two-and-a-half miles should suit.
16. The Brass Man
Trainer: Tom George
Last Season’s Form: 22
The Brass Man began his career in Ireland with Mags Mullins, finishing third in his sole point-to-point for which he was an even money favourite, with Silver Hallmark running out the winner that day. His only other start for that yard came in a bumper, which he duly won in good style before being sold to his current connections for a cool £110,000 at the Goffs Doncaster Spring Sale back in May 2019.
It would be fair to say that he didn’t provide an instant return on investment, as he would not make his debut for Tom George until January 2020 in what would be his only run of the season. Despite some novicey jumping, he caught the eye going well on the approach to three out as a leading group of six separated themselves from the remainder of the field. After another poor jump, he suddenly went from cruising to struggling and he eventually finished well beaten in fifth. However, there were plenty of encouraging signs given how he travelled through the race and he looked like a horse in need of more time to fully mature. Indeed, Mags Mullins said “he is a little bit of a baby still” just eight months before that run. It’s also worth noting that he underwent wind surgery after that run which also might help to explain his weak finishing effort.
While he only made two appearances last season, they were both highly encouraging. His first came in what is perhaps one of the strongest maiden hurdles to be run at Lingfield in a very long time; sporting a hood and a tongue-tie for the first time, he travelled ominously well throughout and hit a low of 1.4 in-running as the leaders jumped the second last, with The Brass Man seemingly full of running. His effort petered out somewhat as he would go on to finish second, but the first and third would go on to frank the form. The winner, Threeunderthrufive, would win three of his next four starts, including a listed race, with his only defeat coming in the Albert Bartlett where he ran with plenty of credit; given that he emerged as one of the leading staying novice hurdlers last season, there is no shame in The Brass Man being outstayed by him in what were testing conditions over two-and-a-half miles. The third, Ballymillsy, would go on to win a novice hurdle before running admirably in a couple of handicaps off 127, finishing second in one and leading at the last before falling in the other.
Following that encouraging run, The Brass Man was dropped back in trip and was sent off the 11/8 favourite for a novice hurdle at Exeter. Once again, he travelled superbly under a patient ride before mounting his challenge after the third last. Given the fact that he’s on this list, you won’t be surprised to find out that he failed to win yet again; this time, he was narrowly denied by Orbys Legend who was made most of the running. The pair pulled well clear and while it was disappointing to see The Brass Man taste defeat yet again, I’m not writing him off as a weak finisher just yet for two reasons: firstly, they kept extending their advantage over the remainder as they battled to the line and secondly, The Brass Man was about ten lengths behind the eventual winner down the backstraight and he had to use up a lot of energy in order to close the distance. It’s also important to note that Orbys Legend is a very useful horse; after finishing second in a red-hot bumper (with the winner, third and fourth all winning next time out with the fifth and sixth also winning later in the season), he would impressively under a penalty at Sandown two starts later and he is currently rated 130.
The Brass Man is currently rated 125 and given the form of his two runs last season and his lightly raced profile, there are plenty of reasons to believe that he is capable of winning off his current mark. Now a seven-year-old, he is a scopey individual and should be capable of making a nice chaser should connections decide to go down that route which I believe they will do at some point. While he has run well in testing ground, his bumper win came on good ground and given that he was ridden very wide at Exeter, seemingly in search of quicker ground, I just wonder if he might be at his best on a sound surface. Regardless, if they can keep him sound which seems to have been an issue in recent seasons, he is more than capable of recording a win over obstacles with his mark of 125 seemingly underestimating his underlying ability.
17. Tile Tapper
Trainer: Chris Honour
Last Season’s Form: 32338
With plenty of strong bumper form to his name, hopes were high for this strong-staying son of Malinas as he embarked over hurdles; he emerged from the thick fog to win an Exeter bumper to beat a host of subsequent winners (including Bobhopeornohope, Hooligan and Atholl Street) in a bumper at the beginning of 2020, while he went on to finish third in a strong Cheltenham bumper where he split the future Grade 1 winner, My Drogo (giving him four pounds) and the now 135-rated Smurphy Enki.
Following that, he made his debut over hurdles in an Introductory Hurdle at Ascot. While he was no match for the subsequent Tolworth winner, Metier, he stayed on nicely to finish second with some useful horses in behind. Tile Tapper would reoppose Metier in the Tolworth, with the latter confirming his superiority with an emphatic win, with the former only managing third this time in the manner of a horse that was crying out for a step up in trip.
He was duly tried over two-miles-and-three-furlongs on what was, on paper, his easiest assignment over hurdles to that point. Sent off an odds-on favourite, he could only manage third but with that race coming just three weeks after a gruelling run in the Tolworth, perhaps it just came too soon for him. Also, his rivals were off deceptively good quality, with the second, Alaphilipe, winning a Grade 2 on his next start before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett.
Tile Tapper’s final run of the season came in the ferociously competitive EBF Novices’ Handicap Final, which he was fancied to run well in from a mark of 128. However, he could only manage eight and in truth he was beaten a long way for home and while there were no obvious excuses, it may have been one race too many for a horse that has been described as “delicate” while the tempo of a competitive handicap perhaps came as a shock to him.
He has always appeared as if he needed a real test of stamina to bring out the best in him and it is my hope that he is tried as a staying chaser this season; he is a half-brother to a point-to-point winner while his dam won a chase over two-miles and six furlongs and he looks to have the scope for fences. From a mark of 125, I believe he can make his presence felt in novice handicaps when the ground is soft.
Chris Honour: “He is a delicate but talented horse. Safer to keep him to running on softer ground. So won’t be out until then. Most likely will have a run over hurdles before going over fences. He has schooled well before he went out for the summer. Video on Facebook page Chris Honour Higher Whiddon farm. No targets but is seen as a staying chaser”.
18. Ubetya
Trainer: Laura Morgan
Last Season’s Form: 23
The second Laura Morgan trained horse on this list; he is already one of the highest rated in the yard but he is still lightly raced with the potential to improve.
After failing to complete in three starts in point-to-points in mid-2019 (although two of those departures weren’t really his fault), Ubetya enjoyed a progressive first season under rules back in 2019/2020 with previous trainer and sister to Laura, Kelly Morgan.
Hooded for his debut which came in a Market Rasen bumper, he ran far better than the market suggested he would and although he eventually finished fourth, he shaped like the second-best horse in the race with a late stumble ultimately costing him two places close to home.
Quickly switched to hurdles, he again shaped with plenty of encouragement when second to St Barts in a gruelling race over two-and-a-half miles at Uttoxeter before going one better at the same venue when dropped back to the minimum trip. That victory earned him a shot at the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle which was always going to be a tough task; sent off a 50/1 chance, he ran with plenty of credit to finish fourth which concluded a productive season.
Hopes were high for Ubetya ahead of last season as he embarked on a novice chase campaign, with Kelly Morgan saying “I’m excited to see what he can do over fences. He looks every bit a chaser”; and following his debut over the larger obstacles, connections would have been no less excited for his future. Despite lining up with the third-lowest official rating in the line-up, Ubetya put in a good round of jumping on route to an impressive second place finish, splitting Gumball (148) and King Roland (138) with Cheddleton (149) and Bold Plan (137) back in fourth and fifth respectively. Despite looking outpaced at times in what was a well-run affair, Ubetya stuck to his task well but just didn’t have the speed to challenge Gumball who is an out-an-out two-miler.
He earned a six pound rise up to a mark of 135 for that effort and following a move to Laura Morgan, his second and final start of last season saw him line up with more expectation than there had been in previous starts, especially as he was reopposing Cheddleton on six-pound better terms than their last encounter. However, he was no match for that rival who went on to win emphatically with Ubetya only managing to finish third of five; his jumping wasn’t as fluent as it was on debut and although it wasn’t a bad performance, more could’ve been expected. He did momentarily drop to last as the tempo quickened before staying on into third, perhaps indicating that he is ready to step up in trip. It was also his first start for a “new” yard and the hood was left off for the first time in his rules career so there are more than enough reasons to excuse his slightly disappointing effort.
Still only a six-year-old and with just six starts under rules to his name, there is still plenty of upside to this young chaser. He seems to be relaxing as he matures, which is perhaps why the hood came off on his last start and this should enable him to stay further than the minimum trip; his dam is a half-sister to Full Cry, who has won over trips ranging from two-and-a-half miles to three-miles-and-one furlong while Ubetya’s granddam is a half-sister to a high-class staying chaser. He should be capable of landing a novice chase before progressing into handicaps; a mark of 135 will demand some improvement but he seems capable of delivering it.
19. Windswept Girl
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball
Last Season’s Form: 2362
First time out winners from the Honeyball yard are hardly a shocking occurrence, but Windswept Girl’s facile win on debut back in February 2020 was somewhat unexpected, with connections noting that she hadn’t shown much at home prior to that run. While the form of that race is nothing to write home about, her dominant win and her appealing pedigree marked her down as a horse to keep an eye on moving forward.
Before she embarked over hurdles, connections ran her in an Aintree bumper at the start of the season; it’s a race that usually produces some good types, with past winners including La Bague Au Roi and Posh Trish, and the 2020 renewal was no exception. Windswept Girl gave it a bold go under a positive ride, but she was ultimately unable to concede a penalty to Elle Est Belle who won in taking fashion; the winner would go on to place in both the Champion Bumper and the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at the Aintree festival. The third and fourth have also proven themselves to be capable types, and are now rated 118 and 113 respectively.
She would go on to make her hurdling debut a month later in gruelling conditions at Lingfield over an intermediate trip. Up with the pace throughout, she jumped well but the constant harassment amongst the leaders led to them going at an unsustainable pace. Still leading as she entered the home straight, she continued to race on the chewed-up ground on the inside as her two patiently ridden challengers looked for the fresher ground on the outside. It soon became apparent that the subsequent winner and runner-up, who were out in the rear throughout much of the race, had too much in the tank for Windswept Girl who faded into third, although it’s apparent that she faced an impossible task given the way the tactics unfolded.
Stepped up to two-miles-and-seven-furlongs on her next start, she was equipped with a first-time tongue tie but ran disappointingly, eventually finishing well beaten in sixth. It’s difficult to establish a clear reason for this poor effort but perhaps it was a combination of the new headgear, which would not be equipped next time out, and the gruelling conditions on what was just her fourth career start. Regardless, I am willing to look past it.
There were more promising signs on her final start of last season; dropped back markedly in trip to two-miles-and-one-furlong, she was ridden handily although to my eye it appeared as though she was almost flat-out for most of the race. Nevertheless, she stuck to her task well but she couldn’t match the speed of the winner, Volkovka, who is a precocious mare and is now rated 118. After re-watching the race, Ben Godfrey doesn’t give Windswept Girl a hard time after the last and perhaps connections had an eye on handicapping in the near future, which would explain the drastic drop in trip.
Allocated an opening mark of 107, it would be disappointing if she was not capable of winning off that. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and I’m of the opinion that she needs at least two-and-a-half miles to be seen to best effect; in fact, as stated on the Geegeez syndicate page, they are of the opinion that “her best form will be around three miles over hurdles or fences”. She is one to keep a very close eye on, especially early in the season when the Honeyball yard tend to be at their most prolific; over the previous five seasons, they have operated at a 27.27% strike-rate during the months of September & October (A/E 1.21). It’s also worth noting that their record with handicap hurdle debutants is superb, with their strike-rate being 28.57% (A/E 1.66).
20. Young Bull
Trainer: Harry Whittington
Last Season’s Form: 32
After a prolific 2019/2020 season which saw him record three successive wins, hopes were high for this son of Dubai Destination as he began his novice chase career; he impressed with his slick jumping over hurdles and his dogged attitude while his frame certainly suggested that he’d improve for the larger obstacles, with those three factors combining to make a horse that could develop into a very nice chaser.
His debut over fences came in what was an extremely competitive novices’ handicap chase at Uttoxeter in October. The race contained a number of exciting recruits to chasing and of Young Bull’s seventeen rivals, ten have gone onto win over fences (including the winner of that race, Demachine, who won again on his next start). On ground that was probably quicker than ideal, he was ridden out wide throughout and put in a solid round of jumping on route to a solid third place finish, with his trainer noting that he was “delighted” with that effort.
Following that, he reopposed the aforementioned Uttoxeter winner, Demachine, at Ascot on nine-pound better terms with little separating them in terms of the betting. Although the duo stepped up two furlongs in trip, Young Bull did look a tad outpaced at times with David Bass having to drive him along intermittently. To his credit, he kept responding for his jockey but Demachine confirmed his superiority, beating Young Bull by three lengths with a further five lengths back to the third; Kerry Lee’s horse would go on to finish second in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown, although admittedly it was a below par renewal.
Not seen since that race which came in November 2020, Young Bull is still only a seven-year-old and he retains plenty of potential as a staying novice chaser. In fact, Harry Whittington said in a stable tour last year that “I would think he’ll be even better next year because he’s always been such an enormous horse and I still feel that he’s tomorrow’s horse”. With that in mind, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his prospects this season while his mark of 136 gives his trainer plenty of options.
His pedigree is all stamina, with his sire Dubai Destination typically producing stayers over jumps while he is a half-brother to Lucy Wadham’s grand staying chaser, Shanroe Santos. Given Young Bull’s aptitude for soft ground, the Welsh Grand National could be a potential target for all that he lacks experience; his current mark of 136 would have qualified him for all bar one of Chepstow’s showpiece race although I’m sure his trainer will be keen to get some more experience into him before attempting to land such a competitive race.
It’s also worth noting, as mentioned when assessing Poldark Cross, that Harry Whittington’s 2020/2021 was rather disappointing and a bounce back seems probable, despite the removal of the horses owned by Andrew Brooks.
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