24th April – Sandown Tips

1:55 – Isolate 12/1 E/W

3:40 – Golan Fortune 11/1 E/W

Isolate

On To Victory would appear to be Alan King’s first string based on price and jockey bookings but I think Isolate is capable of out running his odds.

Having only raced over hurdles once as a juvenile last season in what was an eye catching run, Isolate returned to hurdles this term and was sent off favourite on his seasonal reappearance but could only manage 3rd behind the smart Guard Your Dreams. He was keen early and the ground was softer than ideal so that run is forgivable.

He quickly put that run behind him, as he racked up two quick victories in good style; the first those came at the expense of the now 129 rated Glory and Honour, with Celestial Force nineteen lengths behind Isolate. The latter lines up here too and currently heads the market. He was conceding a double penalty to the winner that day with Isolate now having to give him a pound, but he still has ground to make up on that run although it’s likely that Celestial Force was not at his best.

Isolate then shaped well in a Grade 3 handicap at Ascot in gruelling conditions which wouldn’t have suited. Still, he travelled better than most and was still fourth when turning for home before conditions took their toll. He runs in just his second handicap today off a two pound lower mark compared to that Ascot run.

His reappearance after a 100-day break was a tad disappointing but he was fairly easy to back that day and his first start of the season indicated that he might be one that needs his first run after an absence. Again, he was keen early and wasn’t given an unduly hard time, perhaps with a view to this race.

He’s sure to strip fitter for that run and a strongly run two-miles looks ideal for him. With Flic Ou Voyou, Rockstar Ronnie, Pasvolsky and Twominutes Turkish all liking to go forward, he’ll get a good pace to aim at and I expect him to outrun his odds.

Golan Fortune

An admirable hurdler turned novice chaser, Golan Fortune won impressively on his debut over the larger obstacles back in December, comfortably beating the more experienced Champagne Well who previously finished behind Remastered and Shan Blue.

He then ran a cracker in the Grade 1 Kauto Star, where he turned for home with Shan Blue and The Big Breakaway before being pegged for third by If The Cap Fits at the line after a ragged jump at the last. He wasn’t disgraced in a Grade 2 at Warwick either

Having been ridden prominently on all three starts over hurdles, he was given an overtly negative ride by in the Midlands Grand National which resulted in him never landing a blow having put in an indifferent round of jumping.

Tom Scudamore takes the ride and given his style or riding, a more positive position is expected to be adopted. It’s also interesting that the cheekpieces go on for the first time since his debut win over fences.

The selection has won at Sandown before (over hurdles) and he also finished 2nd to Topofthegame off 137 here.

I think he has a big handicap in him off this kind of mark and I hope this is the one.

21st April – Perth Tip

3:35 – True Romance 12/1 E/W

Having been underwhelmed by racing in the past couple of weeks, this card at Perth sparked some much needed excitement! Plenty of competitive handicaps, an open listed race and even the opening maiden hurdle has attracted a strong field; the latter being a rarity at this time of year.

True Romance lines up here for what will be his first outing over hurdles in over 500 days. Having missed all of last season, he’s had two spins on the all-weather recently where he shaped better than the bare result on the latter of those starts.

Those efforts will have undoubtedly sharpened him up for a return to hurdling which may well have been the plan. He’s only had four starts in this sphere but he’s run well on each occasion, with his form figures reading: 1224. His sole victory came at the expense of the useful Locker Room Talk, who reached a mark of 138 in the months following his defeat to True Romance.

His handicap debut over hurdles came off just a 1lb lower mark than he races off today; he finished a narrow second at Musselburgh having coasted his way to the front, only to throw the victory away by idling out in front. Raised 7lbs for that run, he shaped extremely well at Haydock when last seen over jumps, trading at 1.45 in running before fading out of the places close to home. The latter of those starts came over 2m3f on soft ground which perhaps stretched his stamina, and the return to 2m on quicker ground looks sure to suit.

Given his tendency to idle in a finish, the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time since a handicap at Wolverhampton in September 2018 looks a wise move although I still expect him to be ridden with patience.

The handicapped has been generous in dropping him 6lbs since his last run and given that he’s only had four starts in this sphere, he still has the potential to improve.

9th April – Aintree Tips

4:05 – Pink Eyed Pedro 40/1

5:15 – Dear Sire 25/1

Pink Eyed Pedro

David Brace’s runners are often overlooked in the market and this is no exception.

Following a productive start to the season, which included an emphatic win at Chepstow and a superb third place finish in the Haldon Gold Cup off 138 (1lb higher than he runs off today), he made a very encouraging debut over the national fences.

While he finished 11th in the end, beaten a long way, he shaped with considerable promise and his jumping improved significantly through the race. He was still bang there approaching the second last before he faded in very testing conditions; he performs significantly better on a sounder surface so today’s conditions should suit.

He had a spin over hurdles last month, undoubtedly with a view to this race which should have put him spot on. As mentioned earlier, he ran back-to-back personal bests earlier in the season and it would be no surprise to see another one here.

Jack Tudor, who has ridden him to victory in the past, replaces Connor Brace in the saddle.

Dear Sire

Another competitive handicap but Dear Sire looks overpriced to me.

Back down to his last winning mark, with that win coming earlier in the season, Dear Sire has a clear preference for a sound surface which he is likely to get here, with his last run coming on unsuitability slow ground. Still, he was not given a hard time that day and it’s possible that connections were eyeing up this race, especially considering he was second in it back in 2018 off a two pound higher mark.

Derek O’Connor is always a notable jockey booking but that is especially the case in conditional/amateur jockey races, as he is simply a cut above the majority of his fellow riders. McCain/O’Connor have only paired up five times, resulting in a win and a second.

Hold up horses tend to go well on the hurdles course at Aintree so this race should suit and his price makes him an attractive each way proposition.

3rd April – Carlisle and Haydock Tips

1:30 Haydock – Barton Knoll 13/2 E/W

2:05 Haydock – Da Vinci Hand 40/1 (0.5pts)

4:33 Carlisle – Pookie Pekan 14/1 E/W

Barton Knoll

Some followers may remember this one from earlier in the season when he won comfortably at Doncaster.

Dependent on good ground, he had a mid-season break after his win before reappearing in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. He jumped well from the front, as is his style, before fading into 5th after the last. That run was eerily similar to his seasonal reappearance; he went on to win on his next run after that and a similar fate may await him here.

While he is still 7lbs higher than when winning at Doncaster, he did that fairly comfortably and this race represents a marked drop in grade compared to last time out. He will be carrying top weight, but he did win off this weight at this track back in May 2019 so it shouldn’t inconvenience him too much.

A couple in the lineup like to be prominent but he should be able to lead, while conditions are very much in his favour. He looks a solid each way bet.

Da Vinci Hand

A tad speculative, but Joanne Foster’s six-year-old looks a tad overpriced given the size of the field.

A dual winner in France, he made his debut for his current yard at Wetherby after an absence of 547-days. For much of the race, he travelled powerfully yet keen and although he was well beaten in the end, he ran a promising race. He was easy to back that day and Sam Coltherd tends to ride a lot of outsiders for the yard; the average SP of his rides for Joanne Foster is just under 64/1.

Furthermore, he was not given a hard time at all last time out, with Sam just nursing him home while others around him were being firmly driven.

He looks sure to build on that and Gavin Sheehan takes over in the saddle, with his only other ride for the yard resulting in a win.

Of the others, most are consistent without necessarily seeming like imminent winners. Vision Du Puy is the obvious one following her win last time out but I’m happy to oppose her at the prices.

Pookie Pekan

While not at his best in recent starts, there are reasons to expect better here.

He often saves his best form for Carlisle, with two of his four wins under rules coming over this course and distance. Those wins came off 108 and 116, while he is now back down to a mark of 110.

He made a very encouraging seasonal reappearance at this track over three miles; he traded at 1.6 in running (SP 28/1) before fading late on, where a combination of the distance and it being his first run of the season saw resulted in him eventually finish fourth.

That was his only run of the season that came on good ground, which he prefers, with his next four starts coming in testing conditions over a variety of trips. As a result, he is now twelve pounds lower than he was on his seasonal reappearance. The forecast is dry for Saturday, with the ground currently good to soft.

The Stuart Coltherd yard have been in good form of late; in the last four weeks, they have had two winners and seven placed from eighteen runners. The stable have a 18% strike rate in handicap chases at Carlisle (A/E 1.38) and are profitable to back blindly.

Everything looks set for a big run from Pookie Pekan in a race where many have something to prove.

The RacehorseClub Debate

The emergence of the RacehorseClub in recent days caused an almighty stir in the racing community; so much so, prize money wasn’t the focal point of discussion for the first time in weeks.

Two Grand National participants have been the subject of debate: Potters Corner and Balko Des Flos.

RacehorseClub purchased a “percentage” of the former from All Stars Racing; the exact percentage they own, to my knowledge, has not been disclosed. One share, which equates to 0.002% ownership, is priced at £75. This equates to the horse being valued at £3,750,000; a truly astonishing amount. Given that Potters Corner is an 11-year-old and that the prize for winning the Grand National is “only” £500,000, it does not take a genius to discern that you’re extremely unlikely see a positive financial return on your investment.

Interestingly, the maximum number of shares of Potters Corner I could add to my basket, as of midday on the 2nd April, was 4,925; that equates to 9.85% ownership. Perhaps that is all that the shares that are available to purchase, so RacehorseClub may have only purchased 10% of the horse. That is purely speculative on my part and is not to be taken as fact.

Balko Des Flos is being fully syndicated, with a 0.02% share available to purchase for £80. As such, the horse is valued at £400,000 although he was purchased for just £110,000 on the 24th March. Considering that only 5,000 shares are available, I was able to add 4,944 to my cart as of midday on the 2nd April; the shares are hardly flying off the virtual shelves.

Many have been quick to label the RacehorseClub as a scam, noting that the horses are way overvalued while being part of a syndicate with thousands of members does diminish the ownership experience.

And to an extent, they are correct. I certainly won’t be purchasing a share but it’s important to consider the decision-making process.

People make decisions based on “utility”; which is the total satisfaction received from consuming a good or service. In the case of horse ownership, very few endeavours will be profitable and that is widely known. The appeal of owning a horse is in the experience and the feeling of being a part of the sport.

From a pure economics perspective, if everyone was to act logically in monetary terms, nobody would buy a share in either RacehorseClub horse.

However, it is obvious that sentiment and emotions significantly impact decision makings, and in turn, their utility. The subject of behavioural economics has made great strides in recent decades and we now view utility theory differently. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) forcefully argued that observed choice behaviour presents many violations to fundamental axioms of expected utility theory.

Now in reference to the RacehorseClub debate, it is clear that the group is reliant on sentiment overriding basic financial instincts. After all, it is a dream for many to own a horse, let alone own a Grand National contender.

But that does not mean that it is a scam. All of the information needed to make a decision is available and if someone concludes that they want to purchase a share, then clearly the positive utility from the emotional aspect of ownership outweighs the obvious negative financial outcome. It is up to the individual to decide what is right for them; everyone has a different utility curve and to lambast someone for their choice if futile.

It is also worth noting that there are multiple other costs involved in horse ownership. For example, the well-known Owners Group are currently selling a share in The Carpenter for £59. Just £25 of that is the capital outlay for the horse himself. The remaining £34 covers: VAT, management fees, vetting, transport, training costs, insurance and more. This helps explain why the valuation of a horse in a syndicate such as this does not simply equal the purchase price of the horse.

Perhaps the wider concern is how syndicates involving a large group of people are perceived. The valuation of Potters Corner can definitely be viewed as exploitative and in a sport that often struggles with its image, we could do without alienating the fans. It also brings into question the involvement of high-profile names such as Oisin Murphy and Ed Chamberlin, who are listed as ambassadors on the RacehorseClub website.

But it is not as if all syndicates are like this. There are a multitude of syndicates available; some that have a large number of members, such as the Owners Group, have proved very successful and popular. They currently have 63 horses running in their colours; all bar two are currently sold out.

In conclusion, I feel as though the level of outrage towards RacehorseClub has been over the top. It certainly won’t be for everyone and the market will decide if the model of purchasing high profile horses for syndication in this manner is viable. Currently, the number of shares sold seem to be quite low while the coverage has been overwhelmingly negative.

But if demand picks up and both Potters Corner and Balko Des Flos sell out before the Grand National, it would present an interesting option for owners. Financial incentive is often lacking but if they could potentially sell a successful horse in the latter stages of his/her career to a group such as RacehorseClub, it may help keep them involved in the game long-term.