Marsh – Envoi Allen (in the trebles as mentioned previously)

Pertemps – The Bosses Oscar 25/1 E/W (AP)

Ryanair – Chris’s Dream 33/1 E/W

Stayers – Fury Road 20/1 E/W (AP)

Plate – Huntsman Son 40/1 E/W + Laskalin 50/1 E/W (0.375pt EW on Laskalin)

Mares Novice – Glens of Antrim 7/1 E/W

Kim Muir – Plan of Attack 9/1 E/W

Marsh

Envoi Allen

There isn’t much left to say about Envoi Allen that hasn’t already been said.

A two-time festival winner and yet to taste defeat in eleven starts under rules, he doesn’t do anything flashy which is reflected in his winning margins but he is a consummate professional and he exudes an air of invincibility.

This will be his toughest test over fences to date and while it’s fascinating that this race has the most runners across the three Grade 1 novice chases, he has the potential to be a level above these and many would argue that he already is, for all that the bare form of his wins over fences thus far doesn’t jump off the page.

Shan Blue has been a revelation over fences this season and with his incredibly accurate jumping being the cornerstone of his success. He can give a bold show from the front but on his run in the Ballymore, he shouldn’t be able to reverse the form with Envoi Allen.

Pertemps

The Bosses Oscar

While he would not be a particularly original selections, it is hard to imagine that The Bosses Oscar will be far away at the finish despite the best efforts of the British handicapper.

He’s been a leading fancy for this race ever since his staying on fifth in the Martin Pipe, with Sire Du Berlais finishing fourth in that race back in 2018 before recording back-to-back victories in the Pertemps. While Gordon Elliott technically won’t have any runners at Cheltenham, with Denise Foster taking over the licence at his yard, it would still be fair to assess her runners as if they were his. With that in mind, Gordon’s recent Pertemps record is phenomenal. He’s won the last three renewals, recording 1-2’s in 2018 and 2020, while all nine of his runners since 2016 have finished in the first five.

While a mark of 151 is certainly no gift, they have discussed the possibility of using a claimer to take some of the weight off which may assist while this wouldn’t appear to be the deepest renewal, although the likes of Champagne Platinum and Lynwood Gold have emerged as contenders following their late qualification.

The Bosses Oscar has been running consistently well throughout the season and while he not a typical Pertemps “plot”, this would’ve undoubtedly been the target for some time and a bold big should be on the cards, with Jordan Gainford taking off a handy seven pounds.

Ryanair

Chris’s Dream

Allaho, Min, Melon, Dashel Drasher and Imperial Aura; we look set for a strongly run race which should play to the strengths of Chris’s Dream.

He’s never fully convinced as a thorough stayer at three miles and it’s a testament to his ability that he managed to win a Grade 2 novice chase and a Troytown over that trip. He shaped well in last year’s Gold Cup, looking a threat as they turned for home after being forced wide but that trip was always going to stretch his stamina.

Narrowly touched off by The Storyteller in a Grade 1 on his seasonal reappearance where he looked the winner before being outstayed, while he paid for an overly aggressive ride in the John Durkan when last seen.

At his best after a break, Henry De Bromhead has said that he’s been kept fresh with this race in mind while a strongly run race over the intermediate trip looks sure to bring out the best in him.

I think you can pick holes in the all of those towards the head of the market and with that in mind, Chris’s Dream appeals at a big price.

Stayers

Fury Road

The past four renewals were won by seven-year-olds while the previous three winners all ran in last season’s Albert Bartlett. While Thyme Hill would’ve been the main flag bearer for that form, let’s not forget that Fury Road finished ahead of him last year, where he was only just denied by Latest Exhibition and Monkfish.

That was undoubtedly his best run over hurdles and while he hasn’t progressed as might’ve been expected, but he has had excuses. He’s only raced in small fields thus far with two starts coming over 2m5f which is on the sharp side for him. His other start came in the Christmas Hurdle where he was very well supported before finishing fourth. However, he’s never run well at Leopardstown and he bounced back from a disappointing run there to run well at Cheltenham so I wouldn’t be too downbeat about that effort.

Given that the stable knew they’d have Sire Du Berlais in this division, I still find It fascinating that they kept Fury Road over hurdles when he looks the type to make a great chaser. Combine that with the fact that Fury Road was well supported to beat Sire Du Berlais at Leopardstown, I just have the feeling that Fury Road is thought to be the better of the two.

The big field will suit and I can see him outrunning his odds.

Plate

Huntsman Son

Fancy after fancy of mine has fallen by the way side and as a result, I think we are left with a rather poor looking renewal of the race.

That led me to look down the betting and the one that appealed the most was Huntsman Son. Now on the surface, an eleven-year-old who pulled up on his last start wouldn’t appear to be a festival winner waiting to happen but there are plenty of reasons to believe that he can outrun his odds.

While he is eleven years of age, he’s only had fifteen starts under rules, eight of which have come over fences. He’s shown some very useful form as recently as October; he comfortably beat Two For Gold off 139 at Wetherby in the manner of a horse with plenty in hand. That rival has gone up eight pounds in the weights since which makes Huntsman Son an interesting proposition racing off just an eight-pound higher mark here.

While he pulled up in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup when last seen, he travelled into the race stylishly before pulling up on the run to two out. The soft ground would not have suited him at all that day as he is much better suited to a sound surface. He’s also at his best fresh so the fact that he’s been off the track since December is a big plus and I imagine that this would have been the target for some time. Salut Flo (2012) finished 12^th in the Caspian Caviar before winning the Plate, while Darna (2015) was fifth before tasting success at the festival

You only have to go back five starts for when he beat Slate House off level weights; that was in March 2019, while Slate House went on to win the Grade 1 Kauto Star nine months later.

I imagine that this would’ve been the plan for some time and given his very unfashionable profile, I can see him being a monstrously large price. He will be held up right at the back and if getting the necessary luck in running, I can see him running a huge race with conditions in his favour; just as For Pleasure did for the stable earlier in the festival opener.

I’m also advising a small E/W bet on Laskalin. A very recent purchase from France, he’s unusual in that he is no longer a novice and he was bought for €77,000, presumably with big handicaps in mind. Venetia Williams has a very impressive record in this race; since 2004, she’s had three winners from twenty-five runners, with a further four finishing second. He is there only runner in the race and I find it interesting that they’re throwing him in the deep end. I have spoken to a French racing expert (@GeeGeeBanker – drop him a follow!); he informed me that his mark is fair and sectionals from his last run show that he had plenty in the tank.

Mares Novice

Glens of Antrim

Willie Mullins has won all five renewals of this race, with a further three hitting the frame from nineteen runners in total.

Hook Up and Gauloise had been the leading Mullins fancies for some time but the former is conceding weight to her rivals while I’ve cooled on the latter of late, as I believe she was flattered by her run at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Concertista came into this race as a maiden last season and Glens of Antrim will look to follow in her footsteps. She’s run in some deep good maiden hurdles thus far and she’ progressed with each start, while she finally looked to be getting to grips with jumping on her last run.

Second to leading Albert Bartlett fancy, Stattler, at Leopardstown, the pair pulled well clear and there is certainly so shame in finishing behind him especially considering that he had the experience edge. She then finished second to Mr Incredible, a well-regarded horse of Henry De Bromhead’s who has previously finished second to Gaillard Du Mesnil; the pair pulled over thirty lengths clear of the remainder.

While the bulk of her form has come over intermediate trips, form over further has been a positive with a view to this race and she shouldn’t be inconveniced by coming down a couple of furlongs. A sister to Minella Melody and out of an unraced sister to Glens Melody, she’s bred to be smart and she can announce herself as a mare with a bright future by running a great race here.

Kim Muir

Plan of Attack

A strange renewal with professionals taking over from amateurs, I don’t think there’s a great deal of depth in this race so it may pay to consider the form of last year’s renewal.

Of those who ran last year, the one I like the most if Plan of Attack who finished fourth in 2020. He went very well through the race where the ground was probably on the soft side for him as the bulk of his wins have come on a sounder surface. He’s also two pounds lower this time around which is a help to his chances.

While he has been in poor form this season, there were more encouraging signs on his most recent start; he’s been kept fresh for this and he’s another than goes well after a break. Not many Kim Muir winners arrive in winning form, so I wouldn’t be too concerned by his form figures.

It’s also interesting that he’ll be sporting blinkers for the first time; he won when cheekpieces went on for the first time while since 2015, the form figures of horses to have run in the Kim Muir with first time blinkers reads: F1223.

We often see with staying chasers that changing headgear can work wonders while Plan of Attack remains less exposed than many of his rivals seeing as he’s still only an eight-year-old with eight starts over fences.

On looking back at last year’s race, he did everything better than Deise Aba, Plan of Attack is on two-pound better terms with him and he finished over two lengths ahead of him while Deise Aba is half the price. With that in mind, Plan of Attack makes each-way appeal at a double figure price.

Day 2

Ballymore – Bob Olinger 11/8

Brown Advisory – Monkfish (trebles, four-fold as mentioned yesterday), Eklat De Rire 33/1 E/W (AP)

Coral Cup – Botox Has 20/1 E/W (AP) & Birchdale 18/1 E/W

Champion Chase – Chacun Pour Soi (trebles, four-fold)

Cross Country – Some Neck 11/1 E/W & Defi Des Carres 40/1 E/W ; both 0.375pt E/W

Grand Annual – On the Slopes 20/1 E/W (AP) & Bun Doran 33/1 E/W

Champion Bumper – Sir Gerhard 9/4

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Ballymore

Bob Olinger

“Bon Olinger is a God-given certainty”; not my words, but the words of Jamie Codd on a recent Cheltenham preview which saw 7/2 swiftly cut to 5/2.

And while I wouldn’t be as bold as the Coddfather, he certainly holds a favourites chance in my mind.

His sole defeat to date came at the hands of the Champion Bumper winner, Ferny Hollow over the minimum trip. That rival has plenty of pace and if he hadn’t suffered an injury, he may well have been Willie’s main hope in the Supreme.

It was not surprising to see Bob Olinger get back to winning ways immediately after that run before taking the Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas in fine style. While his three runs this term have all come on heavy ground, good ground shouldn’t pose an issue, with Henry De Bromhead noting that “he’s a good-moving horse and I think he’d handle better ground”.

This race looks set to be an exciting clash between the three that dominate the market. Of Bob’s rivals, Bravemansgame looks a top-class prospect but Paul Nicholls has yet to win the Ballymore while Challow winners are 0/17 in the Ballymore, although six of the last nine have placed; Denman finished second when attempting to do the double and a similar fate may await Bravemansgame. Gaillard Du Mesnil represents Willie Mullins, the winning most trainer of this race but to my mind he beat a group of stayers for speed at the Dublin Racing Festival and the Ballymore will be a different test entirely.

All in all, Bob Olinger has star potential while he also has a very good profile for this race; six-year-olds have won nine of the last ten renewals while horses that won an Irish point-to-point, a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle have a phenomenal record in the Ballymore.

Brown Advisory Novice Chase

Monkfish

Again, not an original selection but it is extremely hard to pick holes in Monkfish who has improved with each start over fences. He managed to win a strong renewal of the Albert Bartlett despite making a dreadful error at the eight flight while he was always going to make a better chaser. In another year, Latest Exhibition would be a leading contender for this race but such is the dominance of Monkfish that Paul Nolan has decided to swerve Cheltenham. I would just be repeating what you would’ve heard all throughout the build up if I was to elaborate further and it is clear that Monkfish will be tough to beat.

I am a big fan of Eklat De Rire and I think he can give a bold show from the front. Unlike The Big Breakaway and Sporting John, his jumping is superb and he’s likely to get an easy time of things in front given the small field. Very lightly raced, we still don’t know where his ceiling lies and he’s taken to finish second to Monkfish.

Eklat De Rire 33/1 (AP)

I would say I’m far better at judging handicaps than graded races so I was quite chuffed with myself when I managed to pick Eklat De Rire out! After beating Escaria Ten and Pencilfulloflead last time out, he confirmed himself to be an exciting novice chaser. A superb jumper, he will go from the front and this a test for those in behind and I question whether the likes of The Big Breakaway and Sporting John can match him given their questionable jumping. I concede that Monkfish is going to be difficult to beat but I am hopeful that Eklat De Rire can give him a race, finishing in the places at the worst.

Coral Cup

Botox Has 20/1 (AP)

Gary Moore has been quite bullish about this one in the build-up, noting that he has been trained purposely for the Coral Cup (although I fully appreciate that his comment could be applied to a number of horses in the field).

The selection has an impressive record at Cheltenham while fiver-year-olds have performed well in this race; from 2006-2017, five-year-olds won four of the twelve runnings with a further eighteen finishing in the first 5 from a representation of just 19%.

He has acquitted himself well in open company and there are certainly signs that he is ready for a step up in trip having shaped well at Ascot.

His form with Allmankind reads well and I still think he has a fair E/W chance although I’m more keen on Birchdale at this stage.

Birchdale

I would encourage those reading to rewatch last year’s renewal of the Coral Cup in which Birchdale finished eighth. Held up throughout, he found himself extremely wide and trapped behind a wall of horses as they made the run to the second last. By the time they swung for home, he was about fourteenth and over ten lengths adrift of the leaders but he made great progress to trail by little over three lengths upon jumping the last. He tired after that leap, which wasn’t surprising given the effort he made to close the gap while it was also his first run for nearly four months. It was also his first run in a big handicap and the form of that race has worked out well; the front two are Graded-level mares, the fifth is now rated ten pounds higher while the likes of Bachasson (sixth) and Coko Beach (ninth) have enjoyed superb seasons. All in all, Birchdale’s run was very encouraging.

Chasing has not worked out this term (it didn’t last season either) but it’s too soon to write him off while he enjoyed a nice spin round in a Jumpers’ Bumper on the 11^th February, meaning he will come into this year’s renewal sharper and also more experienced, while he has still only had four starts over hurdles. He’s also two pounds lower this time around; every little helps.

It’s also worth noting that nine of the twenty to finish in the first four in the previous five renewals had been chasing earlier in the season, so switching back to hurdles is seemingly not a negative.

He’s always been a highly regarded type; 6/1 for an Albert Bartlett which he was not ready for, he was engaged in a good duel with Brewin’Upastorm when that rival fell at the last in the Classic Novices’ Hurdle and we know that horse to be a very useful performer. Nicky Henderson has had four winners of this race in the past eleven years; all four of his winners had winning form at Cheltenham, something only 41% of his runners had.

Nicky said in a recent stable tour that “This is what we’ve been aiming for… he’s the prime candidate”. Nico rides having ridden both Whisper and William Henry to success in this race in 2014 and 2019 respectively.

All in all, he looks to have outstanding claims for connections that know what it takes to win this race and he’s still an appealing price.

Champion Chase

Chacun Pour Soi

The second leg of what many will be hoping is a double on the day for Ricci and Mullins, Chacun Pour Soi can make up for his late withdrawal last season.

Talented but fragile, concerns about his soundness have been somewhat alleviated this season as he’s managed to stand three races thus; a marked improvement compared to previous seasons having only raced four times for Willie Mullins since 2017 before this campaign.

Some hasn’t convinced by his finishing efforts but he was impressive in that respect in the Dublin Chase when last seen, while the only doubt about him now is his ability to handle Cheltenham. If the track proves no issues, and there are no glaring reasons to think that it will be, he looks to be a cut above his rivals.

Put The Kettle On holds solid place claims given her Arkle win and the good record of Arkle winners in the Champion Chase while she also has an enviably strong record at Cheltenham.

Cross Country

Defi Des Carres

Let’s be clear; this is an awful race. Easysland will win if he’s anywhere near his best but he’s had an awful preparation for this; unwell a couple of months ago, he missed his prep run while the David Cottin team haven’t been in great form of late. His sole start this term was below par too and so I could not be backing him at such skinny odds. There are significant doubts about others near the head of the market so with that in mind, it appeals as a race to take a stab at something at a big price.

Defi Des Carres ran a superb race on his debut over the banks at Cheltenham in December; he looked the likeliest winner before being pegged back by Some Neck, whose jockey got a hefty ban for overuse of the whip. While he was getting plenty of weight from that rival, he is younger and was having his first run of the season while Some Neck had two prior runs before arriving at Cheltenham. For me, there is too big of a price discrepancy.

You can put a line through his last run, which came in the Sussex National as he is a bonified cross country performer and I have little doubt that this has been the target even since he came to Britain. He attacks his obstacles with enthusiasm and Harry Bannister will know him much better now following their first spin round here. Still only an eight-year-old, a relative baby in the context of this race, he’s likely to find one or two to good but he should give his running which can’t be said of most in the line-up.

Some Neck is another with course form that’s entitled to respect given his form with Defi Des Carres. Richard Johnson hasn’t ridden in this race for a few years but he rode Balthazar King to his two victories back in 2012 and 2014 so encouragement is taken from that, while the horse had a spin round over hurdles in preparation for this; we’ve seen that work well in previous renewals with the likes of Tiger Roll and Sizing Australia.

He was a good horse for Willie Mullins a couple of years ago, with his C.V including a Grade 2 victory and he can give a good account of himself here.

Grand Annual

On The Slopes 20/1 (AP)

Now run on the Old Course as opposed to the New Course, that will favour those that prefer to race prominently.

One such runner is On The Slopes, who was the ante-post favourite for this race last year but his mark of 136 was not high enough for him to make the cut. As a result, he went to Kempton instead where he comfortably dispatched on Return Ticket who has improved a fair bit since then.

Plenty was expected of him this term, with many thinking that we would land a big handicap at some stage of the season but things have not yet gone to plan. He shaped as if in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance behind Rouge Vif which led to him being very well supported next time out. However, he was slightly disappointing but Richard Johnson reported that he heard a noise and he had a wind operation just two days later. Interestingly, four of the last ten Grand Annual winners ran in either of the two Cheltenham handicaps that he contested earlier in the season.

He had a run in a Jumpers’ Bumper back in February to shake off the rust and get a run under his belt while this is his only entry, so it may well have been the target for some time. Off a mark of 140, he should be guaranteed a run and while he is not yet fully exposed.

Given that he’s usually a sound jumper that races prominently, that should hold him in good stead and he stands out at an attractive price.

Quote from Chris Gordon: “On The Slopes is the horse I’m really looking forward to running at the festival. He’s had a wind operation and a good blow on the all-weather, which hopefully would have brought him on. I would have loved to have given him a run in a chase but the ground wouldn’t have suited around that time as he’s a better-ground horse.”

Bun Doran

No write up. Apologies.

Champion Bumper

Sir Gerhard

Cheveley Park are searching for a third successive win in this race and they have a great chance in the form of Sir Gerhard. While he is now with Willie Mullins, he spent much of the season with Gordon Elliott who had an embarrassment of riches in this division, yet Sir Gerhard was always regarded as the standout contender. As Jamie Codd said in a recent Q&A, he “is well built and ready for a Champion Hurdle” where as Three Stripe Life was described as “not at the same level as Sir Gerhard at the moment”.

Kilcruit is respected but I just have concerns about whether he’ll be able to replicate his form from the Dublin Racing Festival. Patrick Mullins noted that he takes less work than all of the other horses in Willie’s yard as they struggle to keep condition on him. That would concern me especially as he’ll have to contend with travelling too, which may affect a horse like him more than the average.

Given that mares have a good record in this race, as do Mullins outsiders, Grangee rates as one of the livelier outsiders and a bold run could not be discounted.

As always, all bets recorded to a 1pt total stake unless otherwise stated. AP denotes ante-post bets that have been advised previously. As always, all bets recorded to a 1pt total stake unless otherwise stated

Supreme – Appreciate It 11/10

Arkle – Shishkin; in trebles with Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi and Envoi Allen (0.5pt per line, 2pt total stake); Also, a 1pt four-fold with the above horses

Ultima – Aye Right 25/1 E/W (AP)

Champion Hurdle – Honeysuckle 7/4

Mares Hurdle – Concertista 11/8

Fred Winter/Boodles – Riviere D’etel 20/1 E/W (AP) + Houx Gris 5/1 E/W

National Hunt Chase – Galvin 3/1

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Supreme

Appreciate It

An eight runner Supreme is not the block buster event we all hoped for as a festival opener, but at least we shouldn’t get a false start!

Appreciate It has been the pundits punching bag in the build-up, with seemingly everyone looking to take him on. While I also like to take on favourites that I perceive to be weak, this is not one I am going to oppose.

Second in last year’s Champion Bumper, he’s three from three over hurdles this season recording two Grade 1 wins in the process. His win over the Christmas period was stunning as many had seen him as more of a stayer, yet he demonstrated an emphatic tun of foot to rout his rivals; the reopposing Irascible finished second that day, nine lengths adrift of the ready winner.

His victory at the Dublin Racing Festival wasn’t as impressive, but he still beat a good field and did so very professionally. Ballyadam and Blue Lord finished second and third respectively; the former should improve for the better ground but his jumping will need to improve if he is to threaten the favourite. However, I still rate him as the most likely to finishing behind Appreciate It.

While the selection would not want rattling fast ground, good to soft should be fine and some seem to forget that his most impressive bumper performance last term came on yielding ground; he is not a flashy two-miler but he doesn’t lack pace.

For Pleasure will make sure there is plenty of pace on here and I expect Paul Townend to be prominent throughout before taking over as they turn for home.

Arkle

Shishkin

It Is unfortunate that we won’t get to see the anticipated clash of Shishkin vs Energumene, although I’m sure many a punter who is holding an ante-post slip on Nicky Henderson’s star novice chaser is a tad relieved that his task has been made considerably easier.

Everything went wrong for him in last year’s Supreme yet he still managed to win and while he has not beat superstars over fences thus far, he has brushed aside some decent rivals while recording fast times in the process.

Allmankind is a worthy foe and he can give a bold show from the front, while the absence of Energumene means he should get an easier time of things out in front. With that in mind, I think he will finish in the frame.

A special mention for Numitor; a beautiful grey who is over 18 hands, I have a lot of time for this horse but he is obviously out of his depth here. Still, I believe there is more to come from him and he’s worth sticking in your tracker for when he returns to calmer waters.

Ultima

Aye Right

An admirable performer, Aye Right looks tailor made for this race and that’s why I put up him a while ago. A sound jumper, he races prominently which is crucial in this race, he ran admirably well in the Ladbrokes Trophy (a race which has provided four of the past six winners of this race) behind Cloth Cap, who is now 26lbs higher and the favourite for the Grand National.

Second in the Sky Bet Chase when next seen, there are reasons to mark-up that run. Firstly, he had to run in AW bumper just 10 days prior as the ground in Scotland was frozen; not an ideal prep. The ground was heavy while Harriet Graham said before the race that she wished the race was on better ground and over slightly further, which is what he’ll get here. He hit the front a long way out that day, the jockey dropped his whip and he was still only headed close to home by the dour stayer, Takingrisks.

It is possible to win off marks this high, as Beware the Bear and Un Temps Pour Tout have shown, while the booking of Richard Johnson is superb as the duo look made for each other. It’s worth remembering that this horse was thought worthy of lining up in last year’s RSA despite only having completed one race over fences, and that came in a two-runner affair. He ran very well that despite three horrendous jumping mistakes but he’s improved markedly in that department and while he is at the top end of his range in terms of handicapping, he looks sure to run a bold race.

Champion Hurdle

Honeysuckle

A mouth-watering prospect, this is a race will divide punters.

Goshen could still be anything but he has serious blow-out potential; at the prices, I’m happy to leave him alone, especially as he has to concede seven pounds to two top-class mares. Epatante is respected and there is no one better at readying a horse for a Champion Hurdle than Nicky Henderson but she faces better rivals this year and while Aidan Coleman is a fine jockey, Barry Geraghty is a difficult man to replace.

Honeysuckle routed a decent field in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out, three on whom reoppose. That race couldn’t have worked out any better for her, as Rachael took up the running from Petit Mouchoir after four from home on route to a comfortable ten-length success. While the race was run to suit, it only panned out that way because she showed enough natural pace to take advantage of the situation, while her jumping was notably slicker than it had been. That performance was indicative of a mare that was still improving; a scary thought considering she already had a perfect record over hurdles.

The ground won’t be rattling quick on the opening day, with good to soft being as quick as she’d want it. All in all, she is a worthy favourite.

Mares Hurdle

Concertista

While I fully respect Roksana, I think she’s more effective at three miles these days and perhaps a sharp 2m4f around Cheltenham won’t see her to best effect; her best chance of a Grade 1 victory this term may come at Aintree.

Last season’s Coral Cup 1-2, Dame De Compagnie and Black Tears are entitled to plenty of respect; they have gone down very different paths this term but they are both very useful, but Concertista comfortably beat the latter earlier this season and would look to have the beating of the former on that evidence.

Second on her hurdles debut in the 2019 Mares’ Novice Hurdle, she went one better in that race next term in one of the most impressive performances of the week, while her two starts this season indicate that she may still be improving. Willie Mullins has won fourteen of the eighteen runnings of the mares-only races at the festival, while Concertista has a great chance of enhancing that impressive record.

Fred Winter

Riviere D’etel

Houx Gris

Another of my early selections, she has a nice profile for this race. Fillies have won four of the last fourteen renewals while she has shown plenty of ability thus far. The front pair pulled 20 lengths clear when she was second on her sole start in France before bolting up on her debut in Ireland. Favourite to beat subsequent and one-time Supreme contender, Thedevilscoachman, his only defeat came to Appreciate It and Rivere ran well to finish third against her elders. It’s worth noting that 2018 Fred Winter winner Veneer of Charm ran in the same two races Riviere has contested this term, so this has been a path to success in the past, while I would say confidently that Riviere is significantly better filly.

She ticks a lot of boxes but there are concerns; she can be keen and she has inclined to jump right-handed, but if you watch her last run back her jumping does straighten up especially when under pressure while a big field may help her to settle.

Houx Gris would be another I’m keen on. Paul Nicholls knows how to win this race and the vibes in the build up have been bullish. He ran well for a long way behind Adagio and Nassalam on his British debut before tiring late on, while a mark of 128 could prove to be very lenient as he travelled like a very good horse last time out.

National Hunt Chase

Galvin

If there’s one thing you need for a race of this nature, it’s experience; the past eleven winners of this race had an average of seven prior starts over fences, which is very high for a novice. We often find that the market leader of this race lacks it, but that is not the case this year.

Second in last year’s Novices’ Handicap Chase behind the Ryanair contender, Imperial Aura, he went on to win a series of small field events in the early part of this season before comfortably winning a novice chase at Cheltenham; his eight start over fences. After that, he was put away for the winter with this race in mind. While he had the pace to compete over intermediate trips, connections have always seen him as an out an out stayer, while his dam won the Durham National over 3m4f which augers well for his chances of staying.

Rated 152, it’s worth noting that only twelve horses in the past ten years have lined up here with a rating in excess of 150, resulting in four wins and two seconds. Next Destination is rated 153 but he’s only had two starts over fences, both of which came in small fields.

To my mind, Galvin ticks every box when looking for the winner of this race and while he is a short price, he should go well here.

3:42 Ayr – Grand Morning 16/1 E/W

4:02 Hereford – Hollywoodien 8/1

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Grand Morning

A tad speculative (regular readers will know that I love a speculative punt in a handicap), but there are reasons to expect a revival today.

While chasing has not gone to plan, some of the selections hurdle form reads well. He beat the ill-fated Cubomania (giving him 3lbs) back in February 2018 in a novice hurdle; he went on to make a very useful chaser. After that run, he won a handicap at Newcastle on heavy ground off today’s mark of 120 as a 9/4 favourite.

Since then, it’s been a mixed bag. He failed to beat a rival home on his first three starts over fences, but he reverted to hurdles in January 2020 at Ayr off 125, where he finished second to Portrush Ted, who retired rated 144 (won off 131 that day). He was well beaten on his next start in a Grade 3 handicap, before going back over fences this term.

His first start this season was very encouraging and easily his best over the larger obstacles. He finished second to Mighty Thunder, who has since won the Edinburgh National and is now rated 139.

Two no shows since mean he’s now back over hurdles where conditions are ideal. His record at Ayr is: 112, while all of his wins have come on heavy ground. Back down to a mark of 120, which he has won off before while he has only had six starts over hurdles. He should run a big race if all is well and if the cheekpieces help.

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Hollywoodien

The winner of this race last year, there has been encouragement on both of his starts this term.

He was third to Ibleo and Paddy’s Poem at Sandown after a 301 day absence; both of those have won since, as has the fifth.

He was then sent for wind surgery and he made a fairly quick reappearance at Wetherby, where regular rider Aidan Coleman, who gets a lovely tune out of him, was replaced by Adrian Heskin. He was stationed very wide throughout, as if he was looking for better ground before coming under pressure as the field turned for home. He was not knocked about at all once his chance was gone and it would not surprise me if they had today’s race in mind; he pulled up in a different Wetherby handicap before winning this race last year.

Back at Hereford in a weaker looking race, the overnight rain is a slight concern but he has won on ground officially described as soft before although he wouldn’t want a bog, with his record on good to soft or better reading: 211

Tom Symonds is having a great season while he has a 25% S/R in handicap chases at Hereford, while Aidan Coleman has a 31% S/R when riding for the stable. Since 2020, the duos form figures read: P3111231231

Gortroe Joe is unlikely to run which decreases the amount of pace in the race; Pingshou could go forward dropping back in trip, as could one of the Skelton trio.

But Hollywoodien looks overpriced at present and a big run is expected.