Since becoming a level-weights contest in 2010, the National Hunt chase has been a happy hunting ground for relatively experienced novices.
Heading into this race, the last 10 winners had an average of 7.1 starts over fences. The exact breakdown of prior runs over fences is as follows: 11,9,5,3,4,10,4,10,10,5.
If you look at all runners in the past ten renewals, just 22 lined up with nine or more chase starts to their name. Of those, five have won and a further two placed while Atlanta Ablaze looked set to enhance that impressive record in last year’s renewal before falling at the 2nd last.
It’s no surprise that experience comes to the fore here given the questions this race poses to a novice and I doubt that the two-furlong reduction in distance will change that.
If lining up, few (if any) will have more experience than LORD DU MESNIL.
With nine chase starts in Britain and six in France, it’s taken a while for Richard Hobson to bring out the best in this 7-year-old but he is of the opinion that he hadn’t fully acclimatised when joining his yard back in 2018.
However, a summer hiatus appeared to galvanise him and Richard Hobson described him as acting like a “different horse” upon returning from his break. Lord Du Mesnil duly rewarded his trainer’s patience with three consecutive wins after failing to win in his previous twenty-two attempts.
Those victories came in the space of a month. He began his winning streak in game fashion at Newcastle off 122 before winning the Tommy Whittle and the Last Fling at Haydock by a combined 22 lengths off marks of 127 & 137 respectively.
Those performances have earned him a new mark of 147 which more than entitles him to take his chance in a race of this nature. In fact, 6 of the last 10 winners arrived here with a lower rating than 147.
He’s clearly a thorough stayer and it’s interesting to note that his only defeats this season came at Stratford and Sedgefield; two sharp tracks that would not have suited him. Cheltenham would certainly be more up his street and he’d be one of the few in the line-up with assured stamina having won over 3m4f last time out.
By Saints De Saints out of a Turgeon mare, he undoubtedly prefers soft ground and he would need slower than is typical for Cheltenham if he were to line up. He has plenty of options at present with the Grande Steeplechase de Paris being earmarked as a potential spring target which does leave a doubt over his festival participation.
However, his long-term target is the 2021 Grand National and the National Hunt Chase has become a standout trial for the Aintree showpiece in recent years.
Teaforthree won this race in 2012 before coming 3rd in the 2013 Grand National while Cause of Causes won the 2016 renewal before coming 2nd to One for Arthur in the 2017 National.
Tiger Roll won in 2017… you don’t need me to tell you about his antics since but he did beat the 2018 National Hunt Chase winner Rathvinden (3rd) on route to recording his 2nd consecutive National win. Last year’s winner, Le Breuil, is due to line-up at Aintree this year and looks to have a live chance.
With the allure of the Cheltenham Festival, the knowledge that this race has a superb recent record of producing National horses and the fact that this is the only season that Lord Du Mesnil will be able compete in novice company, I imagine that connections will be very keen to run here if the ground came up soft.
He currently holds an entry for the Grand National Trial at Haydock this weekend (15th February). The ground is currently heavy there and plenty of rain is forecast which does cast some doubt about whether the meeting will go ahead. If it does and he takes his chance (which he’s far from certain to), he’d surely have a great chance on ground he loves at course he’s 2 from 2 at. Another good performance would further enhance his Festival claims.
He’s not the biggest but he’s a very slick and efficient jumper that could prove hard to pass if allowed to lead as he has done in his three previous starts.
20/1 NRNB is available with Skybet and Paddy Power; that seems more than reasonable given that he’ll only run if conditions are in his favour. If he lines up, I imagine he’ll go off a much shorter price.
ADVICE: BACK LORD DU MESNIL @ 20/1 EW NRNB
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