1:37 – Numitor 16/1 E/W
Numitor went into my notebook back in March when he finished 5th at Kempton in a competitive novice hurdle.
Sent off an unfancied 100/1 shot, he was always prominent and travelled nicely alongside his more fancied opponents. He hit a low of 12/1 in running as a leading group of five drew clear. Tom Scudamore sat quietly on the imposing grey, despite dropping to the rear of the leading quintet as they approached the final flight. He was beaten by 18 lengths in the end, but he shaped far better than that under a conservative ride and the race has worked out well; the front 4 are now rated: 136, 137, 132 and 124 (mare) respectively.
He made an encouraging reappearance 24 days ago when 4th at Stratford, leaving the distinct impression that he’d come on significantly for the run. He’s a huge horse (18 hands) who will undoubtedly run over fences sooner rather than later and he looked to be carrying plenty of condition LTO and so it wasn’t a surprise to see him tire late on.
With that run behind him, he looks to hold every chance of being competitive off 112 on his first run in a handicap. Tom Scudamore, who’s ridden him two times thus far, takes the ride and he outperforms expectations at Hereford in handicap hurdles (A/E 1.29)
It’s worth noting that Numitor improved significantly for his first run after a break last season. On the first run, Richie McLernon rode and Tom Scudamore rode NTO, so booking him looks like a sign of intent.
Heather Main is more known as a flat trainer; she’s only had 3 wins in NH races but she looks to have a good horse here and she’s in good form, with 5 winners and 6 placed from 17 runners in the last 4 weeks.
overandclear.com 