2:15 – Checkitout 3/1
3:25 – Don’t Shout 11/2
As I’m backing two Nigel Twiston-Davies runners, I thought it’d be worth analysing the yard a touch more this season.
Some have noted that his runners don’t appear to be as geared up first time out this season, and at first glance I thought the same.
To my surprise however, the stats do not back that up.
I though that but the stats don’t back it up!
NTD first time out this season: 12 wins and 18 placed from 84 runners (14% S/R, A/E 0.96)
He had 16% S/R and 0.96 A/E last season with horses running for the first time that season, so he hasn’t deviated too much from last season’s performance.
NTD runners second time out this season: 3 wins and 5 placed from 31 runners (9% S/R, A/E 0.44!)
It’s worth noting that those stats do not include runners from the 11th November.
So in my opinion, the stable were just out of form earlier this season and that you should not be put off by backing a NTD runner first time out.
So, let’s get to the write ups.
Checkitout
Checkitout was a gallant 5th on his chase and stable debut last time out in a race that looked extremely competitive for the grade.
Prominent throughout, his jumping was neat and he shaped as though he’s appreciate a step up in trip, which he gets today.
That race is working out well: Morning Vicar (2nd) won NTO, as did Canelo (11th) when he beat Northofthewall (4th) who was leading at the 2nd last before falling with the pair well clear. Mahlervous (9th) and Terrierman (16th) both finished 2nd NTO, while Maypole Class won yesterday.
Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride; his only of the day. He operates at a 26% S/R (last two seasons) when only having 1 ride on the day (25% S/R when only having 1 ride at Ludlow)
The yard are in better form than they were last time the selection ran, with NTD’s runners recording form figures of: 122353141 the last 5 days.
It’s also worth noting that he only joined the yard a few weeks before running for them for the first time. As such, he can probably be expected to improve more for his first run than most of NTD’s runners.
Don’t Shout
An open looking race, but Don’t Shout looks to have more scope for progression in comparison to the majority of his rivals.
He ran a couple of fair races bumpers back in early 2019, including when 6th on debut behind Chantry House, Edwardstone and Shan Blue before embarking on a novice hurdle campaign last term.
He ran with credit on his first run over hurdles when 3rd at Perth on heavy ground behind the race-fit Elliott raider, Road to Dubai. He improved significantly for the better ground and the step up in trip when winning at Hereford NTO. That form is solid without being spectacular; Red Nika (2nd) and Cage of Fear (3rd) are both now rated 121. On that form, Don’t Shout looks well treated off 116.
He was then sent off a well backed 6/1 shot for a Cheltenham handicap off 121 but everything went wrong for him that day. He was very keen in very testing conditions, while his tendency to jump right handed and a terrible blunder at the 6th made it a race to forget.
Well beaten again LTO, 2m on soft/heavy ground was never going to see him to best effect.
However, the conditions here (2m5f trip on good ground at a right handed track) look ideal. As a full brother to Lisnagar Oscar, it’s no surprise to see that his best form has come on better ground and he looked a strong stayer when winning over 2m4f at Hereford.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has formed a good partnership with the talented amateur, Zac Baker; they have a 21% S/R in handicap hurdles (A/E 1.4) while the duo are 4/13 at Ludlow (31% S/R, A/E 1.73).
The yard were enduring a fairly quiet start to the season by their standards, but their form is starting to pick up again.
There isn’t an abundance of pace in the race and so I expect Don’t Shout to be up with the pace (made most at Hereford). Hailing from a yard who tend to have their horses ready to go after a break, I expect him to go close in this company.
overandclear.com 