2:02 – Ballymillsy 11/4
is a fascinating race. It would appear that more than half of the field are returning to hurdles as a prep run with a view to going back over fences next time out; the likes of Hogan’s Height (Grand Sefton), Cyclop (generally needs his first run), Crossley Tender (won 2nd time out in the last two seasons) and Ramses De Teillee all fall into that category.
Ballymillsy is the least exposed of these and is the youngest horse in the lineup by some way while he showed enough last season to suggest that he can win races off his current mark of 127.
His only poor run thus far came in Grade 2 company on what was just his second start over hurdles so that run is forgivable. Prior to that, he was fourth in a very hot bumper and third in one of the best maiden hurdles that Lingfield has seen in recent times; The Brass Man (125) finished second with Threeunderthrufive (141) coming out on top.
After another promising effort in novice company behind Paddy’s Motorbike, he won nicely off 121 in his first handicap start over a staying trip before chasing home J’Ai Froid at Warwick, with the winner that going on to finish second in a competitor handicap at the Aintree festival off a thirteen pound higher mark.
Ballymillsy was well backed on that occasion and it was a similar story on his next and most recent start, where he held every chance before taking a final flight fall. The winner, Dragon Bones, is four from five over hurdles and is rated 130 while the eventual second, South Terrace, recorded form figures of 221 on his subsequent starts and he now rated 127. While I’m normally wary of backing horses on the back of a fall, he’s had plenty of time to get over it and the trainer actually profitable to follow if you back his runners (hurdles) on their first run after a fall/unseat; 17% S/R, A/E 1.37 and an ROI at SP of 98%.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is also profitable to follow in handicap hurdles at Newton Abbot while an absence isn’t a concern given that the yard tend to have them fairly fit first time out while Ballymillsy has performed well following a break before.
All in all, Ballymillsy would appear the most likely to give his running and he also has greater scope for improvement than most. He stands out as a good bet at what is a very fair price.
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