1:50 – Discorama 4/1

3:00 – Ballyandy 9/1 E/W (6 places with Paddy Power and William Hill)

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Discorama

This will be a stern test given the rain that’s fallen and one horse we know that relishes a test of stamina is the Irish raider, Discorama.

Placed at in the Martin Pipe, NH Chase and the Ultima in three consecutive seasons, he clearly has a liking for the track and he’ll be fully geared up for this following his 2nd at Galway back in October.

It was also encouraging to see Vinnidication, who was 4th in the Ultima behind Discorama, run well in the Charlie Hall. The front five were clear that day and it looked to be a decent renewal and Discorama was given an awful lot to do that day having been ridden with a great deal of patience by Bryan Cooper.

Paul Nolan has 4 winners from 14 runners at the November meeting (28% S/R, A/E 2.67) while Mrs Milner went extremely close for him on Saturday when finishing 2nd. Robbie Power is riding high after a successful Saturday at Cheltenham and he’s the type of jockey I can see getting a good tune out of Discorama and backing this duo blind would’ve yielded you a small profit over the years.

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Ballyandy

Ballyandy is far from the most exciting option in the race, but he looks sure to give his running at a fair price.

A proven graded performer, including a respectable 8th in the Champion Hurdle, albeit that was a below par renewal.

Despite being 9 years old, his seasonal reappearance was superb and it showed he’s no forlorn hope just yet. He finished 2nd the Welsh Champion Hurdle behind Sceau Royal (giving him 4lbs) who went on to frank that form when winning the Elite Hurdle next time out. Mario De Pail (5th) won at Wetherby on Saturday so the form is strong and I suspect the Welsh champion hurdle is one of the best handicap hurdles we’ve seen this season.

The rain will be ideal for him and he’s proven in big fields; he looks primed to run a big race.

After his last run, Nigel Twiston-Davies seemed keen to target graded races on route to the Champion Hurdle so it’s interesting that he’s rerouted him here. I’d take that as a positive sign for his chances.

Edwardstone is the archetypal Greatwood winner but I was concerned with Alan King’s stable tour comments of late, where he indicated that the lack of prep run wasn’t ideal and this race will be used to decide whether they go chasing or stay hurdling. Still, he looks well treated off 142. Recent Cheltenham winner Tegerek completed my short list.

Ballyandy is the class horse in the race and we often see class rise to the fore in handicaps. He looks sure to run another big race.

1:13 – Mario De Pail 4/1 (9/2 with 365)

Thought good enough to take his chance in the Supreme last term, Mario De Pail looks more than capable of being competitive off a mark of 133.

He made his seasonal reappearance last month in the Welsh Champion Hurdle where he finished a creditable 5th. He fared the best of those who were prominent early but he lacked the change of gear that the front 4 had. That wasn’t surprising given the ground was far quicker than ideal for Mario De Pail and the front 4 are proven to have plenty of class and speed; we know Sceau Royal (1st) is lethal on quick ground and has won the Elite Hurdle since, while Ballyandy (2nd) is a standing dish in top 2m races. Furthermore, Buzz (3rd) was highly rated on the flat while Milkwood (4th) looked full of speed when winning his last start.

Therefore, the step up in trip looks likely to suit and the forecast rain is also in his favour.

Sam Thomas has only ever had 2 runners at Wetherby (1 winner), and he makes the 8+ hour round trip up from Cardiff with just the 1 runner on the card.

The yard are in terrific form; since Mario De Pail’s run 27 days ago, their runners have form figures of: 14383264311213 ; 4 winners and 6 placed from just 14 runners. Of the 10 that didn’t win, all bar 3 were no more than 6 lengths away from the winner.

This is an easier race than last time and he was dropped 2lbs for his creditable effort last time out.

James Bowen retains the ride; the Bowen/Thomas combination have form figures of 21222F25 since July 1st.

2:50 – Anightinlambourn 9/2 (5/1 available with Bet365)

A lightly raced mare, she looks ready to strike off a mark of 103.

Having shown a fair level of form in bumpers, including when 3rd on debut behind the useful Printing Dollars, Anightinlambourn was sent over hurdles last season.

She was pitched in at the deep end on her first start in a race won by the 139-rated, West Cork. She was 80/1 that day and finished well beaten in 9th, but the stable were going through a barren spell at the time of her debut over hurdles so I wouldn’t read much into that effort.

Her next run was more encouraging, finishing 4th at Wetherby over 2 miles, shaping like she needed a step up in trip. The front three that day are now rated 128, 124 and 114 respectively while the 5th is rated 124. On that run, a mark of 103 for Anightinlambourn looks exploitable.

She continued her profession when 2nd at Sedgefield over 2m4f under today’s jockey, Tom Bellamy. At First Glance, who was 7 lengths behind Anightinlambourn that day off level weights, reopposes here yet is rated 1lb higher.

There was plenty of encouragement to be taken from her seasonal reappearance, when she raced in a class 2 handicap against in form and race fit rivals. Despite that, she travelled well for a long way before tiring late on. Mustang Alpha has gone on to advertise that form well.

It’s also worth noting that Ben Pauling wasn’t in great form when she made her reappearance. In the two weeks prior to her run on the 21st October, he only had 2 placed from 18 runners.

However, the yard are going well now. Since the 5th November, they’ve had 4 winners and 3 placed from 18 runners.

Southwell has been a good track for the yard; they have an 18% S/R in handicap hurdles here (P/L: +£37.08 to a £1 stake at BFSP, A/E 1.24)

This race is significantly less competitive and it would be disappointing if she can’t go close in this company. Anightinlambourn’s jumping has improved with each start and she looks a much more settled horse now.

2:15 – Checkitout 3/1

3:25 – Don’t Shout 11/2

As I’m backing two Nigel Twiston-Davies runners, I thought it’d be worth analysing the yard a touch more this season.

Some have noted that his runners don’t appear to be as geared up first time out this season, and at first glance I thought the same.

To my surprise however, the stats do not back that up.

I though that but the stats don’t back it up!

NTD first time out this season: 12 wins and 18 placed from 84 runners (14% S/R, A/E 0.96)

He had 16% S/R and 0.96 A/E last season with horses running for the first time that season, so he hasn’t deviated too much from last season’s performance.

NTD runners second time out this season: 3 wins and 5 placed from 31 runners (9% S/R, A/E 0.44!)

It’s worth noting that those stats do not include runners from the 11th November.

So in my opinion, the stable were just out of form earlier this season and that you should not be put off by backing a NTD runner first time out.

So, let’s get to the write ups.

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Checkitout

Checkitout was a gallant 5th on his chase and stable debut last time out in a race that looked extremely competitive for the grade.

Prominent throughout, his jumping was neat and he shaped as though he’s appreciate a step up in trip, which he gets today.

That race is working out well: Morning Vicar (2nd) won NTO, as did Canelo (11th) when he beat Northofthewall (4th) who was leading at the 2nd last before falling with the pair well clear. Mahlervous (9th) and Terrierman (16th) both finished 2nd NTO, while Maypole Class won yesterday.

Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride; his only of the day. He operates at a 26% S/R (last two seasons) when only having 1 ride on the day (25% S/R when only having 1 ride at Ludlow)

The yard are in better form than they were last time the selection ran, with NTD’s runners recording form figures of: 122353141 the last 5 days.

It’s also worth noting that he only joined the yard a few weeks before running for them for the first time. As such, he can probably be expected to improve more for his first run than most of NTD’s runners.

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Don’t Shout

An open looking race, but Don’t Shout looks to have more scope for progression in comparison to the majority of his rivals.

He ran a couple of fair races bumpers back in early 2019, including when 6th on debut behind Chantry House, Edwardstone and Shan Blue before embarking on a novice hurdle campaign last term.

He ran with credit on his first run over hurdles when 3rd at Perth on heavy ground behind the race-fit Elliott raider, Road to Dubai. He improved significantly for the better ground and the step up in trip when winning at Hereford NTO. That form is solid without being spectacular; Red Nika (2nd) and Cage of Fear (3rd) are both now rated 121. On that form, Don’t Shout looks well treated off 116.

He was then sent off a well backed 6/1 shot for a Cheltenham handicap off 121 but everything went wrong for him that day. He was very keen in very testing conditions, while his tendency to jump right handed and a terrible blunder at the 6th made it a race to forget.

Well beaten again LTO, 2m on soft/heavy ground was never going to see him to best effect.

However, the conditions here (2m5f trip on good ground at a right handed track) look ideal. As a full brother to Lisnagar Oscar, it’s no surprise to see that his best form has come on better ground and he looked a strong stayer when winning over 2m4f at Hereford.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has formed a good partnership with the talented amateur, Zac Baker; they have a 21% S/R in handicap hurdles (A/E 1.4) while the duo are 4/13 at Ludlow (31% S/R, A/E 1.73).

The yard were enduring a fairly quiet start to the season by their standards, but their form is starting to pick up again.

There isn’t an abundance of pace in the race and so I expect Don’t Shout to be up with the pace (made most at Hereford). Hailing from a yard who tend to have their horses ready to go after a break, I expect him to go close in this company.

1:37 – Numitor 16/1 E/W

Numitor went into my notebook back in March when he finished 5th at Kempton in a competitive novice hurdle.

Sent off an unfancied 100/1 shot, he was always prominent and travelled nicely alongside his more fancied opponents. He hit a low of 12/1 in running as a leading group of five drew clear. Tom Scudamore sat quietly on the imposing grey, despite dropping to the rear of the leading quintet as they approached the final flight. He was beaten by 18 lengths in the end, but he shaped far better than that under a conservative ride and the race has worked out well; the front 4 are now rated: 136, 137, 132 and 124 (mare) respectively.

He made an encouraging reappearance 24 days ago when 4th at Stratford, leaving the distinct impression that he’d come on significantly for the run. He’s a huge horse (18 hands) who will undoubtedly run over fences sooner rather than later and he looked to be carrying plenty of condition LTO and so it wasn’t a surprise to see him tire late on.

With that run behind him, he looks to hold every chance of being competitive off 112 on his first run in a handicap. Tom Scudamore, who’s ridden him two times thus far, takes the ride and he outperforms expectations at Hereford in handicap hurdles (A/E 1.29)

It’s worth noting that Numitor improved significantly for his first run after a break last season. On the first run, Richie McLernon rode and Tom Scudamore rode NTO, so booking him looks like a sign of intent.

Heather Main is more known as a flat trainer; she’s only had 3 wins in NH races but she looks to have a good horse here and she’s in good form, with 5 winners and 6 placed from 17 runners in the last 4 weeks.