3:23 Wetherby – Gaelik Coast 3/1

A very ordinary renewal of the Bobby Renton which has been a great race down the years.

While it is a slightly trappy affair (as most of the card is), I do think Gaelik Coast is the most likely winner and he would be the favourite in my books.

He enjoyed a good novice campaign last term, winning twice and running some good races in defeat. While he did win over two miles on his chasing debut, he does seem to be at his best over an intermediate trip while Donald McCain has stated previously that he’s suited by better ground. With that in mind, conditions are definitely in his favour today.

Dropped a couple of pounds for his run at Aintree, I actually thought that was a decent effort considering the trip would have been on the short side and his jumping was quite sloppy; the latter I’m happy to forgive considering it was a very competitive eighteen runner handicap while his previous chase starts came in field sizes of no greater than six. 134 is a very workable mark and should not be beyond him, while connections are already pondering attempts at some big handicaps such as the Topham.

Of his rivals, the form of the Kirby yard makes it hard to trust Whoshotthesheriff while Lock’s Corner is a rogue sort. Yccs Portocervo might just be approaching his ceiling while Road Warrior is a danger if fully tuned up and if allowed to dominate from the front, but his ever increasing mark is forcing him to compete a better caliber of rival here.

As such, I am happy to take a chance on Gaelik Coast especially seeing as Donald McCain continues to be in great form.

3:40 – Fanfan Du Seuil 9/1 E/W

It’s hard to be overtly confident with this one but I do think there are reasons to expect some rejuvenation from this once talented hurdler.

Fifth in the 2019 Fred Winter from a mark of 136, he has failed to progress as might have been hoped. He wasn’t totally disgraced in his first season in open company (as many ex-juveniles are), shaping well in some decent handicaps. Last season, however, was a write-off; a prep run in France preceded an attempted chasing career, with saw him jump poorly on his sole attempt resulting in him being pulled up.

He’s returned for a few runs in France from March to April, where he didn’t pull up any trees, but they are persisting with him and he has dropped to a very tempting mark of 112.

This is the easiest race he has contested in some time and his ideal conditions have seemingly been a flat two miles on good ground, which he will get here; a lot of his recent races have come on a testing surface which has never seen him to best effect.

Tom George has a 24% S/R when sending just one runner to Huntingdon (A/E 1.4), while many other horses from his yard have returned from a stint in France with a new lease of life.

There are clearly risks attached but having dropped so far in the weights and with conditions in his favour for the first time in two years, he’s worth taking a chance on in what is a winnable race.

2:02 – Ballymillsy 11/4

is a fascinating race. It would appear that more than half of the field are returning to hurdles as a prep run with a view to going back over fences next time out; the likes of Hogan’s Height (Grand Sefton), Cyclop (generally needs his first run), Crossley Tender (won 2nd time out in the last two seasons) and Ramses De Teillee all fall into that category.

Ballymillsy is the least exposed of these and is the youngest horse in the lineup by some way while he showed enough last season to suggest that he can win races off his current mark of 127.

His only poor run thus far came in Grade 2 company on what was just his second start over hurdles so that run is forgivable. Prior to that, he was fourth in a very hot bumper and third in one of the best maiden hurdles that Lingfield has seen in recent times; The Brass Man (125) finished second with Threeunderthrufive (141) coming out on top.

After another promising effort in novice company behind Paddy’s Motorbike, he won nicely off 121 in his first handicap start over a staying trip before chasing home J’Ai Froid at Warwick, with the winner that going on to finish second in a competitor handicap at the Aintree festival off a thirteen pound higher mark.

Ballymillsy was well backed on that occasion and it was a similar story on his next and most recent start, where he held every chance before taking a final flight fall. The winner, Dragon Bones, is four from five over hurdles and is rated 130 while the eventual second, South Terrace, recorded form figures of 221 on his subsequent starts and he now rated 127. While I’m normally wary of backing horses on the back of a fall, he’s had plenty of time to get over it and the trainer actually profitable to follow if you back his runners (hurdles) on their first run after a fall/unseat; 17% S/R, A/E 1.37 and an ROI at SP of 98%.

Nigel Twiston-Davies is also profitable to follow in handicap hurdles at Newton Abbot while an absence isn’t a concern given that the yard tend to have them fairly fit first time out while Ballymillsy has performed well following a break before.

All in all, Ballymillsy would appear the most likely to give his running and he also has greater scope for improvement than most. He stands out as a good bet at what is a very fair price.

3:00 – Zoffee 11/4

After running an encouraging race on his first start of the season, Zoffee looks poised to claim his second win over fences in this open looking race.

Last season, he posted his best effort (in terms of RPR) at this track on his second run of the season (it was his chase debut and he had a run on the flat a few weeks earlier to get him up to speed). He chased home the very useful Getaway Trump (rated 147, getting 10lbs) that day with two useful rivals a long way adrift of the front pair.

He didn’t manage to build on that, but his reappearance was encouraging and given that he lost a shoe and that he improved significantly for his first run last season, there are reasons to expect improvement here, while a mark of 125 shouldn’t be beyond him. He is also completely unexposed over this trip. Vision Des Flos dictated the race and jumped well from the front last time out but with other pace angles in the race, I can see Zoffee closing the gap here.

Phillip Hobbs has a 22% S/R (A/E 1.11) with his handicap chases at Warwick (since 2015) while Tom O’Brien has been riding well of late. Zoffee will need to eliminate the jumping errors but the fact that he has jumped well at the track and that there is a relatively low casualty race at the track both bode well for his chances.