12:00 – Eclair Des Sablons 14/1 E/W
We backed this one LTO at a big price when he finished 8th in a competitive handicap hurdle. My primary concern that day was that it might be a prep run for a future start over fences; it now looks likely that it was the case.
The form of his seasonal reappearance is working out well: Clever As A Fox (1st) won on his next start, while Bannixtown Glory (7th) and Black Buble (5th) finished 1-2 in a handicap at Bangor (29th July); these two pulled 7 lengths clear of the rest.
EDS is entitled to come on for run and Katy Price has tremendous success with her chasers. She has a 16% SR with her runners over fences (P/L: +£40.50) vs a 4% SR with her runners over hurdles (P/L: -£168.25)
In fact, her two winners since the resumption of racing have both come over fences, including a chase debutant.
Furthermore, EDS is a former point to point winner and he looks a chaser on looks. His point to point win looks solid on paper; with Whatsupwithyou (2nd, now rated 132) and Vinnie Dev (3rd, now rated 123) finishing behind him that day.
A 4lb drop in the weights for his last run seems generous and it allows him to sneak into this 0-110 Class 4. While he will carry 12st 4lbs here, he looks the type that will be able to cope with the weight.
Considering he’s placed off 115 over hurdles, he’s had a prep run and he promises to be a much better chaser for a yard that excels with chasers, his current price looks far too big.
Glengar is the obvious danger given the ease with which he won LTO but he’s short enough in the market. The one that makes the most appeal of the rest is Waitonit. He shaped as if needing a a longer trip on his last run and he fell when looking the winner in his point-to-point.
overandclear.com 