There are many publications that will point you in the right direction when it comes to top-class prospects. However, I wanted to take the “Horses to Follow” concept in a slightly different direction.
Therefore, NONE of the horses included in this list won a race last season.
By taking this approach, I hope I have managed to find some “under the radar” gems for you to put in your tracker.
I sincerely hope that you find this list beneficial (and profitable) for the season ahead.
Thank you for reading!
(Note: The list is in alphabetical order)
1. BEAKSTOWN
Trainer: Dan Skelton
In the early parts of the 2019/20 NH season, it seemed as if the entirety of Racing Twitter had loaded up on Beakstown for the Close Brothers’ (Now the Northern Trust) at the Cheltenham Festival. Alas, the screenshots of their bet slips that had been saved for months were discretely deleted on the 10th March as Beakstown could only manage 5th.
However, I think it will pay to keep the faith with this son of Stowaway.
Always held in high regard, this Grade 2 Novice Hurdle winner was quickly sent chasing; not surprising when you consider that he’s a point-to-point winner and is over 17 hands. He made his chase debut at Wetherby, finishing an admirable 2nd to subsequent Grade 2 winner, Sam Spinner. Beakstown was sent off the favourite that day, which says a great deal about the regard he’s held in considering that Sam Spinner was rated 22lbs superior to him over hurdles (albeit Beakstown only had 1 season over the smaller obstacles)
He subsequently finished 4th behind the RSA winner, Champ, with subsequent winners filling the 2nd and 3rd spots. He travelled sweetly into the race but the 2m6f trip appeared to stretch his stamina. He backed that up with a 3rd place finish behind the Marsh Chase 4th, Mister Fisher, which set the stage for a tilt at the Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
Held up on the inside in the early stages, his jumping helped him make progress through the field so that he was within striking distance of the leaders inside the final half a mile. Jumping the 2nd last, Beakstown was only a length behind the leader and eventual winner, Imperial Aura. He did tire after the last, eventually finishing 5th, beaten 13 lengths; the heavy ground and the stiff uphill finish ultimately counting against him. Still, it was a very pleasing effort given his preference for good ground. It was also encouraging to see him jump well in a large field; the application of cheek pieces may have helped in that regard and I’m sure they’ll be retaining them.
With another year to strengthen up and fill his enormous frame, there are plenty of races to be won with this lightly-raced 7-year-old. As he still retains his novice status, there will be plenty of options for him and I will be surprised if he doesn’t manage a win over fences sooner rather than later. He tends to run well fresh so he’s one to keep onside first time out.
2. BIGMARTRE
Trainer: Harry Whittington
Harry Whittington’s stock has been on the rise for the last few seasons; Simply the Betts provided him with his first Cheltenham Festival winner with success in the Plate last term, while he also trains the high-class duo Saint Calvados and Rouge Vif. With a growing string of young, classy horses, these are unquestionably exciting times for the Lambourn based trainer.
While Harry will be looking forward to a bright future, it may pay for punters to look to one of Whittington’s original flagbearers in Bigmartre.
A Grade 2 winner as a novice chaser, he has competed in some of the most competitive handicap chases around over the last two seasons; including the Topham, Old Roan and the Stable Plate. As such, he’s had his fair share of disappointing runs; his performances as a novice earnt him a mark of 149 which was always going to make life tough.
However, he has proven that when conditions are in his favour, he is a very capable performer. Despite a win on heavy back in 2015, he has a clear preference for good ground. In the 2018/2019 season, a string of disappointing runs in competitive fields saw him drop to a mark of 140. This allowed for greater flexibility in terms of race planning and Harry Whittington duly found the ideal race for him; a 2m4f handicap chase on good ground. This particular race was at Perth, as he put his put his rivals to the sword with a bold jumping display from the front which saw him win by a mammoth 16 lengths. He was subsequently raised back up to a mark of 149.
Last season looked to be following a similar pattern; four comprehensive defeats in hot handicaps on soft/heavy going once again saw him drop in the ratings down to a mark of 140. However, the postponement of racing meant he didn’t have the chance to run on his favoured quick ground; he won in April in 2018 & 2019.
Back down to his last winning mark, Bigmartre is capable of winning another handicap chase over 2m4f on a sound surface. His record on seasonal debut is good: 11165; if conditions are in his favour, do not be put off if he is returning from a break.
3. BRAVEMANSGAME
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
He won his sole point-to-point comfortably despite a bad error and clear signs of greenness at Lingstown in March 2019. The 2nd, For Talks Sake, won his on his next start and has been highly tried under rules for Paul Nolan. That performance earnt Bravemansgame the highest rating of all 4-year-old Irish pointers for the season and attracted the eyes of many potential suiters as he entered the Tattersalls Cheltenham Festival sale. Paul Nicholls picked him up for £370,000 on behalf of Bryan Drew and John Dance. High sales prices breed high expectations.
He made his rules debut in a competitive bumper at Ascot in November 2019. Sent off the 7/2 2nd favourite, backers would have been pulling their hair out as Harry Cobden battled to try and get his mount to settle. For the first mile, Harry’s hands were in constant motion; never resting on his mounts neck. Once the leading group quickened, Bravemansgame was initially caught out as Harry urged him to pick up. The response was not immediate as he rounded the turn for home in 7th place. However, once the penny dropped, he stayed on really impressively under a primarily hands and heels ride to finish 3rd. The front two, Soaring Glory (1st) and Kid Commando (2nd) already had the benefit of a previous run and they have both franked the form; Soaring Glory finished 2nd in a listed bumper on his next start while Kid Commando won a maiden hurdle impressively before placing in Grade 2 company.
It was a run full of promise from Bravesmansgame, but he failed to build on that effort in listed company on his next and most recent start. He was notably weak in the market that day and he was having to be pushed along from a relatively early stage. He plugged on to finish 6th but it was a tad disappointing.
Still, the future remains bright for this son of relatively unknown sire, Brave Mansonnien. He’s an imposing, scopey prospect who was never going to be seen to best effect in bumpers. With novice hurdling on the agenda, he’ll appreciate a step up in trip and will likely be seen to best effect at 2m4f-3m on genuine winter ground.
I can envisage Bravemansgame contesting some graded races this term but don’t expect him to have a hard campaign; Paul Nicholls reportedly holds him in very high regard and I suspect he’ll be extremely hopeful for his long-term future over fences. He currently resides in box #1 at Ditcheat; hopefully that’s a good omen for his future prospects.
4. CADZAND
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Bought by Tom Lacey for €40,000 at the Derby National Hunt Sale at Fairyhouse back in June 2018, he was well fancied to win on his point-to-point debut; sent off an odds-on favourite and he won in the style of one.
He was subsequently sold to Chelsea Thoroughbreds and sent to Dan Skelton who reportedly holds him in very high regard. Interestingly, the yard opted not to send him straight over hurdles, instead electing to give him a couple of runs in bumpers.
He made a hugely encouraging rules debut at Newbury; travelling strongly in rear, he made smooth headway as the field entered the final two furlongs as he traded as short as 2.26 in-running (SP 7/1). He just failed to catch the Nicky Henderson trained duo, Son of Camas (1st) and Timberman (2nd), finishing 3rd. The winner has always been held in high regard and he won a very competitive novice hurdle on his next start.
He was next seen out at Warwick, three months after his debut. Sent off a well backed 9/4 favourite, he again travelled like a good horse as he powered his way into the lead at the two-furlong marker, trading at 1.21 in running. However, he appeared to hit the front too soon and he looked green once he was in the clear which allowed the eventual winner, Sizeable Sam, to head him close to home. Despite his defeat, it was another performance full of promise.
This son of Stowaway possesses plenty of speed and he has the scope to make a nice jumper under rules. He has been withdrawn on account of soft going in the past so it may be the case that he’ll prove most effective on a sound surface. He promises to be an above average novice hurdler this term.
Midway through July, an interview with Harry Skelton indicated that the team were shifting towards a “quality over quantity” ethos. With that in mind, another Skelton novice it could pay to look out for is MIDNIGHT RIVER. In that interview, Harry mentioned Midnight River when talking about the good young horses the yard has coming through. 3rd on both starts in bumpers, the form of both races has worked out very well. Israel Champ, Papa Tango Charly, Benson, Cadmar and Tupelo Mississippi are just some of the horses to have finished behind him. It could be a good season for the Skelton’s with their novice hurdlers.
5. CLOTH CAP
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
Cloth Cap progressed very well when switched to chasing in the 2018/2019 season. His chasing career began with a whimper as he faltered to an 18-length defeat on his debut over the larger obstacles but he quickly put that performance behind him. He went on to win back-to-back handicaps from marks of 118 and 125 respectively which saw him awarded with a new mark of 134.
Connections were quick to target the Scottish Grand National; a far cry from the small-field races at Catterick and Stratford that he’d experienced up to that point. Despite his in-experience and racing from 1lb out of the handicap, Cloth Cap travelled powerfully and didn’t look out of place. In fact, he traded as low as 1.82 in-running as he stalked the leaders on the turn for home. He couldn’t reel in the leading duo, but he stayed on nicely to finish 3rd, only beaten 4 lengths.
That performance led to connections pondering even bigger targets; Jonjo O’Neill repeatedly outlined his hope that Cloth Cap would turn into a Grand National contender. Ultimately, Cloth Cap didn’t progress as might’ve been expected. However, good ground is essential for this son of Beneficial. The 2018/19 & 2019/20 seasons were polar opposites in terms of ground conditions, meaning he raced exclusively on unfavourably soft ground on all four starts last season.
Given his preference for a sound surface, it’s likely that he’ll be out early in the season. However, his record when fresh is poor; he’s been beaten by a combined distance of 71 lengths on each of his three seasonal reappearances (excluding his rules debut – a 32 length defeat in a bumper) so I wouldn’t be in a hurry to back him first time out.
I’m sure connections still see him as a Grand National horse. As such, he will need to go up in the weights to stand a chance of getting in. Considering he’s only had 8 starts over fences, there’s still potential for Cloth Cap to improve. His campaign will likely be dictated by the ground but he’s one to note wherever he turns up.
6. COUNT MERIBEL
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Following a solid novice chase campaign in 2018/19 which saw him defeat subsequent National Hunt Chase winner, Le Breuil, Count Meribel was somewhat of a “dark horse” coming into the 2019/20 campaign, with his admirers hoping he could prove better than a mark of 146.
He made a very encouraging seasonal reappearance in the Colin Parker Memorial Listed Chase at Carlisle, finishing 2nd to future Betfair Chase and Gold Cup 3rd, Lostintranslation. While the winner was a class apart, it was a good effort from Count Meribel who had two decent rivals a fair way behind him; Kildisart (3rd) went on to finish 2nd in the Ultima while My Old Gold (4th) won a handicap off 141 on his next start.
Given the promise of that run and his trainer’s excellent record in the race, Count Meribel was a leading fancy for the BetVictor Gold Cup. He ran a fair race that day; tracking the leaders throughout, he struggled to pick up the leading quartet as they turned for home, eventually fading into 6th. Conditions were gruelling and very few ever got into the race, while only eight of the seventeen runners finished.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has said in the past that Count Meribel has a preference for good ground, so the heavy conditions he encountered on BetVictor Gold Cup day would not have suited. His record on Good/Good to Soft ground is: 5232111; his record on Soft (or heavier) is: 532211265P4726P
The soft ground might go some way to explaining his dismal effort on his most recent run. However, on further investigation, he appears to be a horse that’s at his best in the early stages of the season. In the last three seasons, his record in October/November is: 1111126; the 6th placed finish being his BetVictor Gold Cup run. Conversely, his record outside of those two months (in the last three seasons) is: 265P47P
As such, he looks like on to catch early in the season. Furthermore, he’s been dropped 4lbs for his last two runs; a mark of 142 looks winnable when conditions are optimal, especially given that he still has scope to improve over fences seeing as he’s only had seven chase starts to date.
A handicap over two and a half miles looks an ideal starting point. While he has fallen short in graded company thus far, it’s worth noting that all of his starts to date in listed/graded races have come on soft ground.
7. FINAWN BAWN
Trainer: Olly Murphy
We only saw Finawn Bawn once last season, yet it was a run that reinforced the idea, at least in my mind, that he could be a very good chaser over staying trips.
That sole start came at Chepstow at the end of October in a good quality novice chase. Kept in behind the leading group for most of the race, he crept closer as they turned for home – trading at a low of 1.9 in running (SP 9/4). He looked the likeliest winner jumping the second from home, but a novicey jump at the last conceded the advantage to his rivals as he finished a close 3rd; Richard Johnson thought he was going to win in between the last two obstacles but felt that his mount just tired in the closing stages. His jumping was solid for the most part, bar a few novicey errors which you can excuse considering it was his first run over fences.
The form of that race has worked out well. Truckers Lodge (1st) placed in the Welsh National before winning the Midlands National, while Prime Venture (4th) also placed in the Welsh National. Subsequent Reynoldstown winner, Copperhead, finished back in 5th while even the 6th and 7th (Tea Time on Mars and Putdecashonthedash) went on to win over fences later in the season. It’s also worth noting that Finawn Bawn conceded all important chase experience to the 1st, 2nd and 4th.
He went under the radar as a novice hurdler, largely due to the amount of quality novice hurdlers’ Olly Murphy had in the 2018/19 season: Thomas Darby, Itchy Feet and Brewin’upastorm the standouts.
But Finawn Bawn does have some useful hurdles form to his name. 3rd to Eldorado Allen on debut over an inadequate 2 miles, he comfortably won his next start before 3rd in Grade 3 company over 2m5f. He concluded his season with another win back in calmer waters.
He currently has a mark of 133 over hurdles and fences but I think he could be a graded staying chaser in the making – he certainly looks the part! Given that he retains his novice status, I think he could develop into a contender for the National Hunt Chase.
8. FOREVER DES LONG
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
While he failed to get his head in front on four starts last season, he improved with each run and this lightly-raced 5-year-old should break his maiden tag before too long.
After two no-shows in a bumper and a novice hurdle, Forever Des Long took a huge leap forward when finishing 3rd at Wincanton. Belying his odds of 33/1, he travelled nicely behind the two market leaders and looked a real threat as they turned for home; trading at a low of 2.1 in-running. Ultimately, he couldn’t match the pace of Calva D’Auge (1st – won next time out & rated 136) and Faire Part Sivola (2nd, rated 129) as he finished 14 lengths behind the front two; but he demonstrated that he possesses far more ability than he’d previously shown.
His final start of last season came at Ludlow where he, once again, showed improved form. After looking a tad outpaced, he stayed on nicely to press the winner close to home. Notably, Tom O’Brien only used his whip once on the run in; reminiscent of a Barry Geraghty ride on JP owned novices – it’s about educating the horse on what’s required and how to apply themselves. The penny seemed to drop, as he surged from 7th entering the home straight to a never-nearer 2nd at the finish. The winner, Night Edition, went on to finish 2nd in the Fred Winter off a mark of 133; he is now rated 137 and it’s important to note that Forever Des Long had to concede 9lbs to Night Edition. The 3rd, Rhosneigr, won his next start while the 4th (Zarafshan) is now rated 122.
Forever Des Long has been allocated an opening mark of 125, which seems fair given the form of his last run.
Interestingly, he was recently acquired the Noel Fehily Syndicate. They’ve had tremendous success so far; five of their seven permanent purchases won last season so they clearly know how to spot horses that are ready to win. Noel reported that Forever Des Long “Is a bigger, stronger horse for his summer break” and they are likely to target another novice hurdle. I’m sure they’ll find a nice race for him to start off in which should protect his handicap mark for when he eventually goes handicapping.
With all his starts coming over 2 miles to date, he remains completely unexposed over further with Phillip Hobbs saying he “will improve for further… wants two and a half miles”. His two best runs came in attritional conditions but he looks versatile in terms of the ground. If he can continue to progress, there are plenty of races to be won with him.
9. HOLD THE NOTE
Trainer: Mick Channon
I’m sure this horse will still be in a number of your trackers from last year, and despite not winning in four attempts last term, it could pay to keep the faith in this lightly-raced chaser.
Having displayed plenty of promise over hurdles in 2018/2019, hopes were high for this son of Jeremy as he made the transition to fences; he looked like a chaser and connections had enjoyed tremendous success in previous seasons with their novice chasers, namely Mister Whittaker and Glen Forsa.
As such, he was well backed upon making his debut over the larger obstacles. Sent off a 13/8 favourite for a Beginners’ Chase at Ludlow, he was keen in the early stages and his jumping was errant at times. Despite that, he loomed up menacingly at the field turned for home, trading at a low of 1.64 in running. However, his jumping wasn’t the slickest at the final four obstacles and he looked a tired horse late on, eventually finishing 3rd. Still, it was an encouraging debut over fences and it was apparent that he would improve plenty for that run.
As such, he was well fancied to win the always competitive Novices’ Handicap Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day from a mark of 133; connections won the race in 2018 with Glen Forsa and Mister Whittaker finished 2nd in 2017. The race had yet to fully develop when Hold the Note was brought to a standstill by a faller. He was swiftly pulled up to be saved for another day.
Despite a lenient looking handicap mark and having never raced over three miles, Hold the Note was thrown into a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Warwick. A relative outsider and the 2nd lowest rated horse in the seven-strong field, he defied the odds to run a blinder, finishing a narrow 2nd to the thorough stayer, Two For Gold. He travelled like the best horse in the race, and he traded at a low of 1.16 in running as he headed Two For Gold at the second last while still on the bridle. Ultimately, the three-mile trip was probably a stretch too far for him at this early stage of his career, but he certainly enhanced his reputation in defeat.
The only downside of that run was that he went up 12lbs in the handicap to a mark of 145. Given that connections won the race in 2018 with Mister Whittaker, it was no surprise to see Hold The Note line up in the Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Still well fancied despite somewhat showing is hand on his last start, he ran an admirable race to finish 3rd behind two very well handicapped horses; Galvin and Imperial Aura. The form of that race has yet to be thoroughly tested, but I’m of the opinion that it will work out well.
Still only a 6-year-old with just nine starts under rules, Hold The Note has plenty of scope for progression. Held in high regard by his trainer, I expect him to improve further next season and he’ll have plenty of options. A mark of 146 is workable, while I believe he’ll stay 3 miles as he matures. I can see him developing into a graded performer over the coming seasons.
10. JAVA POINT
Trainer: Kim Bailey
An £80,000 purchase, this Irish point-to-point winner made an encouraging start to racing under rules last term.
He made his debut for Kim Bailey in a bumper at Southwell; sent off as the 3/1 favourite, he led for most of the way until he was outpaced as they entered the final three furlongs. To his credit, he plugged on to finish 4th (only beaten 6 lengths) and the form of that race has worked out very well. The winner, Ask A Honey Bee, won his next two starts before finishing midfield in the Champion bumper. Wilde About Oscar (2nd) won his next start and finished 4th in a listed race while Bourbon Beauty (3rd) went on to finish 3rd in listed company later in the season.
Following that promising start, he once again headed the market when next seen in a Chepstow bumper. In truth, he put in a disappointing performance. He looked outpaced and while he did stay on, he was well beaten. In his defence, the yard was going through a rough patch at the time; from Boxing Day until the 29th January, Kim Bailey only had 1 winner from 27 runners, many of which were well fancied. Hence, he can probably be forgiven that effort, especially when you consider that his trainer said that he’s “not a flashy horse in any way” and so he was unlikely to be seen to best effect in bumpers.
Therefore, it was no surprise to see him switched to hurdles on his next start. The yard still wasn’t in great form, but he put in a good effort to finish 2nd to subsequent Supreme Novices’ 5th, Allart. He also had Hunting Percival (3rd, won on his next start) and Prussia With Love (5th, bolted up in a handicap off 102 on his next start) behind him that day, so the form has a good look to it. While Allart was much the best, it was a good introduction to the smaller obstacles.
His final start came at Newbury in a competitive novice hurdle, won by subsequent Supreme Novices’ 3rd, Chantry House. That looked like a decent race, with L’Air Du Vent (5th, rated 131) & Tremwedge (7th, 3rd in the Adonis and now rated 129 – he received 8lbs from Java Point at Newbury) finishing behind Java Point, as did Namib Dancer, another horse I feel is a very useful type.
We haven’t seen Java Point since; after four runs in 75 days, he had earned a rest and he promises to benefit from a long summer break. When he returns, he’ll be running off an opening mark of 119 which is workable. His two starts over hurdles both came over the minimum distance but he’s crying out for a step up in trip. When he gets that, he’s capable of winning a handicap over hurdles before making the transition to fences.
11. KILLER CLOWN
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
A comfortable winner of his sole point-to-point for Colin Bowe, he was sold at the Cheltenham December sales for £135,000. Back in 2nd was Carry On The Magic, who was bought by Tom Malone and Paul Nicholls at the same sales for a cool £160,000; while he hasn’t been seen on the racetrack as of yet, he has reportedly worked well at home and will carry the colours of Highclere Racing when he makes his debut under rules. In their point-to-point tussle, these two pulled ten lengths clear of a horse we know more about, Pres. He has made up into a decent chaser under rules and is currently rated 117. The 4th and 5th both went on to win a point-to-point so the race has a solid look to it.
2nd on his sole bumper start, he was a tad unfortunate not to make a winning debut. He traded at 1.17 in running as he led the congested field inside the final furlong. However, he hung notably left in the final 100 yards which allowed Trincomalee to head him close to home. Still, it was a very encouraging start to his life under rules, and the winner has proven to be a decent horse.
His hurdles debut came at Huntingdon where he finished a respectable 5th in a decent race. He jumped and travelled well before getting tired late on. Adam Wedge wasn’t unduly hard on him and it left plenty to work on.
On his next start, he bumped into the exciting prospect and Ballymore Novices’ 4th, The Big Breakaway. Once again, he finished 5th but the front five pulled 19-lengths clear of the rest and the form of the race is strong. Craigneiche (3rd) and I K Brunel (4th) both won on their next starts and are now rated 127 & 140 respectively. Only Papa Tango Charly failed to enhance the form, but the £440,000 purchase still retains potential.
Killer Clown was last seen at Ascot in January where he finished 3rd. Having been close up throughout, he appeared to lack a change of gear at a crucial stage of the race but he stayed on nicely to only be beaten by just over a length. The winner (Falco Blitz) and the second (Blackfinch) both went on to run in the EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. Falco Blitz finished a solid 5th off 132 while Blackfinch finished down the field, but that race historically represents a solid piece of form. Meanwhile, Thegallantway, who finished 4th behind Killer Clown, went on to finish 2nd in a handicap at Ascot off 123.
Killer Clown will have plenty of options this season; a mark of 124 looks workable while he still has the option of running in novice hurdles.
He could also make an early switch to chasing considering his point-to-point background. He’s a scopey son of Getaway out of a Milan mare that’s a half-sister to Noel Meade’s Grade 1 winning chaser, Watson Lake. As such, it’s likely that he’ll be seen to best effect once he tackles the larger obstacles.
He looks capable of winning races in both spheres; versatile in regards to ground conditions, he’ll appreciate 3 miles in time.
12. LOUIS’ VAC POUCH
Trainer: Philip Kirby
Louis’ Vac Pouch endured a rather strange campaign last term. The majority of his form has come over 2m4f or 3m, yet he began the season with two consecutive races over 2m; one in a handicap hurdle and another in a graduation chase. He ran with credit on both occasions; held up in rear before staying on near the finish, but never really put into either race. It would be fair to say that he wasn’t ridden vigorously on either occasion.
After those two runs, he moved from Henry Oliver’s yard to Phil Kirby’s. He made his stable debut in a “Jumpers Bumper” at Newcastle (I would be remiss to give much consideration to the form of any race of that nature) before running a very eye-catching race in the Plate at Cheltenham. Held up for most of the race, he latched on to the main group on the approach to the third last. Under pressure, he made progress on the turn for home in a race where few managed to get involved having raced off the pace. He made further headway on the approach to two out, but he made a bad mistake and was hampered by a faller which blunted his momentum. Another error at the final fence meant he could only finish 7th, but there was plenty of promise in that run.
Dropped 2lbs for that run to a mark of 142, that was only his 7th run over fences and the switch to Phil Kirby, a trainer on the rise in recent seasons, could help unlock further improvement. He did have some useful form to his name for Henry Oliver, including a 2nd place finish in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Ayr behind the useful Secret Investor. It’s also worth noting that he was running a great race in a competitive handicap at the 2019 Punchestown Festival (Off 143) before being brought down at the fourth last.
With a turbulent campaign behind him, I’m sure he will be up to winning a handicap chase off his current mark.
13. MADIBA PASSION
Trainer: Alan King
We’ve only seen this son of Al Namix three times since February 2019, but he has shown plenty of promise in the few times we have seen him on the track.
A winner of two his three starts in Irish point-to-points, he was sold to Alan King and Highflyer Bloodstock for £100,000 at the Cheltenham December sale in 2018.
He made his rules debut in a very competitive bumper at Kempton in February 2019. Sent off a well backed 7/2 chance, he travelled extremely well before making smooth headway to track the leaders as they approached three furlongs from the finish. He looked like mounting a serious challenge, trading at a low of 1.8 in running, but he was unable to reel in Enrilo (1st) and House Island (2nd); both of whom had been prominent throughout. He was only beaten 3.75 lengths and he was conceding experience to both rivals that finished ahead of him.
Furthermore, the form of that race has worked out very well. Enrilo (1st) is now a Grade 2 winner over hurdles while House Island (2nd) went on to win a listed bumper on his next start and has finished 2nd & 4th in a pair of Grade 2 novice hurdles. They are now both rated 140.
Madiba Passion disappointed on his next start in a listed bumper at Newbury, but he reportedly scoped poorly after the race so you can put a line through that run. Following that, he was put away for the season with connections targeting a novice hurdle campaign in 2019/20.
Unfortunately, we only saw him once last season but it was a promising effort. He made his debut over hurdles at Kempton in November. Keen in the early stages, he travelled well in midfield before making smooth headway to lead as the field made the turn for home. He jumped the 2nd last in the lead but he appeared to tire late on, eventually fading into 4th. He was quite weak in the market that day and Alan King had previously stated that he wouldn’t be seen on the track until late December; hence, it is highly likely that he needed the run from a fitness perspective. The race was of a decent standard; Golden Taipan (1st) is now rated 133 while Namib Dancer (2nd) is rated 119 – although I believe he is better than his mark.
It is a concern that we haven’t seen him since but all being well, he remains a nice prospect for novice hurdles this season. His hurdling at Kempton was slick and he looks to possess plenty of speed. If he gets a full season under his belt, he is certainly capable of winning a maiden/novice hurdle before making up into a nice handicapper. He has the speed for 2 miles but he should be able to stay 2m4f in time. He handles good ground well and I imagine that he’ll be seen to best effect on a sound surface.
14. MEGA YEATS
Trainer: Ruth Jefferson
This well-named daughter of Yeats displayed a great deal of potential in her first season under rules in 2018/19. She won three of her five starts, including a bumper and two novice hurdles.
The point-to-point winning mare made a winning rules debut when beating NTO winner, Redbridge Gold, in a Carlisle bumper. Her next run came a listed mares’ bumper at Cheltenham, where she finished a valiant 2nd to subsequent 2019 Champion Bumper 5th, The Glancing Queen, with a host of subsequent winners in behind.
She got off the mark over hurdles at the first attempt at Wetherby, beating NTO winner, Storm Goddess, by a length over 2m4f; the margin of victory understated her superiority as she never looked like being caught and the pair pulled well clear of the remainder. Following that effort, connections took their chance in the listed “Warwick Mares’ Hurdle”. Despite conceding a significant amount of experience to her rivals (the winner had 22 prior starts over hurdles & the runner up had 9), she didn’t look out of place as she finished an honourable 3rd. She traded at even money in-running and still held every chance at the last, but she was eventually beaten off by the experienced duo Jester Jet (Rated 141 at the time) & As If You Say Run (Rated 143 at the time). Subsequent listed chase winner, Sensulano, finished 13 lengths behind Mega Yeats in 4th. The mare concluded her season with a straightforward win against inferior opposition. Those performances earned her an opening mark of 134.
She made her 2019/20 seasonal debut in a competitive Grade 3 handicap at Haydock over 3 miles. On initial inspection, a 17-length defeat and a 7th place finished doesn’t leap off the page but I would encourage anyone reading this to re-watch the race. She raced prominently throughout and despite being forced wide on the final bend, she held every chance when jumping the 3rd from home. She tired thereafter, but that can be excused given that it was her first run of the season and her first attempt at the trip. It’s also important to note that four of the six horses that finished ahead of her had a previous run under their belts.
With that run behind her, she went off a well-backed 13/2 chance for a tough mares’ handicap at Cheltenham. It’s fair to say that the race has worked out well; Dame De Compagnie (1st) and Indefatigable (2nd) both went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival. Again, Mega Yeats was ridden prominently throughout but Jamie Hamilton tried push on after the 3rd from home. That appeared to count against her, as she tired upon entering the final two furlongs, eventually finishing 7th.
Those two runs saw her mark drop 5lbs to 129 but she didn’t make another appearance. However, she remains very lightly raced and open to improvement. It’s likely that she will embark over fences next season; she won her point-to-point well and she’s out of a presenting mare so it’s entirely possible that the switch to chasing bring out the best in her. She’ll be of major interest in a novice handicap chase; 2m4f looks optimal for now.
15. MINT CONDITION
Trainer: Jennie Candlish
Jennie Candlish isn’t known for her prowess in bumpers; in the last 5 years, she’s had just 1 winner and 9 placed from 46 runners. Hence, I was impressed by the performance of Mint Condition when he finished 3rd in a good Warwick bumper on his rules debut.
Keen in the early stages, he travelled strongly throughout in a prominent position. He nosed his way to the front on the turn for home, before the classy duo Truckers Pass (2nd) and Soaring Glory (1st) pulled 6 lengths clear. The form of that race is solid; Soaring Glory won another bumper on his next start (beating the useful Kid Commando) before finishing 2nd in a listed bumper (won by the dual listed winner, Israel Champ). Truckers Pass finished 2nd in another bumper on his next start but he’s reportedly rated very highly by Philip Hobbs. Hometown Boy finished back in 4th; he ran with credit in two novice hurdles before bolting up on his handicap debut off a mark of 114 (he’s now rated 130 over hurdles)
He then made his hurdles debut at Newbury, finishing 4th behind subsequent Supreme Novices’ winner, Shishkin. While he didn’t have the class to match Shishkin & Shakem Up’arry, he was their closest pursuer for much of Newbury’s long home straight before he tired after the final flight in attritional conditions.
The step up to 2m3f on heavy ground on his next start appeared to stretch his stamina. On the turn for home, he looked the chief threat to the exciting Lieutenant Rocco before a tired leap at the last led to him being headed late on by Stick With Bill (rated 132, was giving Mint Condition 10lbs) and Tip Top Cat.
His final start represented his most winnable task to date. Sent off a 6/5jf, he ran a fair race to finish 2nd behind the 130-rated chaser, Cracking Destiny; he’d been in superb form prior to this race, winning a handicap chase off 115 before backing that win up with two 2nd place finishes. As such, there was no shame in this defeat for Mint Condition who bumped into an in-form & more experienced rival who had his own way out in front.
A mark of 115 looks lenient given the obvious promise he’s displayed to date. By Black Sam Bellamy out of a multiple point & hunter chase winning mare, you’d expect his long-term future to lie over fences and staying trips; he did run in a point-to-point and his style of hurdling suggests that he’ll take to chasing. He struck me as a horse who needed more time to fully strengthen up so I expect, with an extra summer under his belt, he’ll be a better horse and more able to stay 2m4f. His dam went best on a sound surface and his given that his bumper run came on good to soft, he could improve over hurdles for quicker ground – something he is yet to experience in that sphere.
16. MISTY WHISKY
Trainer: Harry Fry
A high-class performer in bumpers, she didn’t perform as expected in her first three runs over hurdles but it is too soon to write her off.
Winner of a listed bumper at Sandown, the form of that race has worked out well. The runner up, Silver Forever, won three of her four starts over hurdles last season (including a grade 2) while Whitehotchillifili (4th) finished 6th in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. She subsequently finished 7th in the Grade 2 Mares’ bumper at Aintree; a slightly below far performance given how she had performed earlier in the season but Harry Fry admitted that it was probably one race too many for her.
By Stowaway and a half-sister to the talented duo Air Force One and One for Rosie, hopes were high for Misty Whisky as she embarked on a novice hurdle campaign.
Sent off a 6/4 favourite for her debut over obstacles at Market Rasen, her jumping wasn’t the slickest as she failed to reel in eventual winner Deputy’s Oscar; she made all that day and already had a run under her belt. Misty Whisky’s jumping was far from slick and Harry Fry’s string were not going well at the time. They failed to have a winner from 19 runners over the previous 30 days.
Following that, she finished 2nd in atrocious conditions at Exeter. She looked the likeliest winner turning in but she looked a tired horse as they jumped the 2nd from home.
It was a similar story on her handicap debut at Fontwell; returning from a 3 month absence, the ground was extremely testing and despite travelling all over the eventual winner approaching 2 out (traded at 1.23 in running), she couldn’t pick off the winner, Duhallow Gesture, as she suffered her third consecutive 2nd place finish. The pair pulled 16 lengths clear of the rest and Duhallow Gesture is a good mare in her own right who won this race last season in similarly testing conditions.
That run saw her raised to a mark of 112 (from 110) but it would be extremely disappointing were she not to progress beyond that given her bumper form and her pedigree.
Her jumping has not been especially slick in all three of her runs to date and she will need to improve in that department in order to get her head in front but she is entitled to progress as she accrues more experience.
With her novice status intact, there will be plenty of options going forward for this mare. I imagine that mares’ handicap hurdles will be on the agenda as her mark does look exploitable but I would prefer to see in her smaller fields for the time being until her jumping improves. It looks like she handles good and soft ground but I don’t think she wants a real slog; 2 and a half miles should be fine.
17. NAMIB DANCER
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
A horse with a lot of ability, he’s been frustrating to follow thus far but I believe it’s only a matter of time before he discoverers the winning thread.
He displayed some promise in bumpers at the back end of the 2018/19 season, but those runs were described as “educational” by his trainer and there was little doubt that he’d return a stronger horse after a summer break.
Indeed, he looked an improved horse when making his seasonal reappearance at Wincanton in October. Kept in mid-division for much of the contest by Robbie Power, he began to carve his way through the field on the bridle as they turned for home while the other riders were getting much lower in their saddles. Namib Dancer carted his way to the front on the run on to the last, trading at 1.03 in running, but he made a horrendous error at the final obstacle; Robbie Power did remarkably well to keep the partnership intact as his mount was scrambling to stay upright. That mistake sent him back to 4th, but he rallied to finish a clear 2nd, demonstrating that he was still full of running. His jumping wasn’t the slickest throughout but the way he ran around on the approach to the last was alarming, indicative of a horse with plenty of maturing to do.
On the back of that effort, Namib Dancer was well fancied to make amends for his unfortunate defeat on his previous run. Once again, his jumping left a lot to be desired but he caught the eye with the ease in which he travelled into the race. As they jumped the second last, Namib Dancer looked the likeliest challenger to the leader, Maidba Passion, as he traded at a low of 1.43 in running (4/1 SP). While he didn’t make a catastrophic error like last time, he lost a couple of lengths at the last as he veered right-handed, allowing the slicker Golden Taipan to gain the initiative as he grinded out a ¾ length victory, with Namib Dancer once again having to settle for 2nd place. The form of that race has worked out well; Golden Taipan finished 2nd to the late Never Adapt in a handicap off 130 on his next start and is now rated 133, while I’m also optimistic about the prospects of Madiba Passion (4th)
After a 75-day break, we last saw Namib Dancer at Newbury, finishing 6th behind the Supreme Novices’ third, Chantry House. He was more patiently ridden that day, but he did travel up nicely to track the leaders at the 2nd last. He looked like getting closer, but not for the first time, he put in a slow jump at the last and shifted to his right which took the momentum out of his challenge. He wasn’t given a hard time that day, with Adam Wedge only applying the persuader immediately after his errant jump at the last. Namib Dancer split L’Air Du Vent (5th, rated 131) and Tremwedge (7th, 3rd in the Adonis and now rated 129 – he received 8lbs from Namib Dancer at Newbury) so the form reads well.
Namib Dancer was allocated an opening mark of 119, which looks very lenient. He’s been held back by his lacklustre jumping but I have little doubt that he’s a far better horse than his mark suggests. He will need to improve in that department to fulfil his potential, but there is still plenty of time for this lightly-raced 6-year-old to mature and brush up on his jumping; another summer break should greatly benefit him. He’s demonstrated a tendency to go right at his obstacles so he might be seen to best effect going right-handed.
This son of Westerner has the scope to jump a fence; in fact, it might help him develop respect for his obstacles which he currently seems to lack. I expect him to remain over hurdles for now and he’ll be of major interest in handicaps over two miles.
18. OUTONPATROL
Trainer: Alan King
A point-to-point winner for Sean Doyle, she was subsequently purchased by the McNeill family and transferred to Alan King for her career under rules.
It’s taken time for her to come to hand, with Alan King describing her as a “bit of a hot head” when she first arrived. That attitude could be seen when she made her rules debut in a bumper at Uttoxeter in March 2019. Having pulled Oakley Brown’s arms out for the majority of the race, she was still bang there as they entered the final two furlongs. Her earlier exertions ultimately took their toll as she faded late on, finishing 7th of 13. Interestingly, the race was won by her stable mate, Wynn House, but all the money was for Outonpatrol; she was sent off at 3/1 while Wynn House was 16/1.
Next seen over hurdles at Chepstow in October, she finished down the field but Alan King reported that she “needed the outing quite badly”. With that knowledge, she shaped with a fair amount of promise behind some very useful types; the first five are now rated: 145, 127, 126, 122 & 115 respectively.
As such, it was not overtly surprising when she put in a much-improved performance on her next start. Under a patient ride, Outonpatrol showed a determined attitude to finish a staying on 2nd in testing conditions. The front three pulled ten lengths clear of the rest, while the winner, Penny Mallow, won her next start.
Her third and final start of last season came in a hot maiden mares’ hurdle at Wincanton where she finished 4th. Despite being keen in the early stages and racing wide throughout, Outonpatrol shared the lead as the field turned for home and a leading group of five began to pull away from the rest. She and Cill Anna raced in head-to-head from a long way out; this battle allowed the more patiently ridden Kissesforkatie to head them both on the approach to last as Jermey Scott’s mare recorded a 4-length victory, with little over a length separating the next four.
It looked a good race at the time and so it proved to be. Kissesforkatie looked set to go very close in her next start until she fell at the 2nd last, while Lunar Baby (2nd) won a handicap off 116 on her next start and is now rated 122. Cill Anna won her next three starts (including a listed race) and is now rated 135, while Who’s The Boss (5th) went close in a couple of handicaps off 114. Even the 6th placed finisher, Prussia With Love, managed to boost the form despite being beaten by 15 lengths as she readily won a handicap off 102 in July.
We haven’t seen Outonpatrol since, but she’s had a wind operation and looks very fairly handicapped on a mark of 114.
By Stowaway out of multiple point/chase winner Burnt Oil Babe and as a point-to-point winner in her own right, she has the scope to be successful over fences if connections go down that route but I imagine that they’ll stick to hurdles for now. Two and a half miles looks like her optimum trip but I can see her appreciating three miles if she learns to relax while she seems adept in terms of ground. It would be hugely disappointing were she not to acquire her first win under rules this season given the plethora of options she has and her scope for improvement.
19. RETURN TICKET
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies
A bumper winner and twice successful over hurdles, Return Ticket has always looked a chaser in the making so it was no surprise to see him switched to fences after just one season over the smaller obstacles.
His chase debut at Wetherby was full of promise; far better than the 19-length margin of defeat would suggest. He finished 3rd behind Beakstown (2nd) and Sam Spinner (1st). Sam Spinner would go on to win his next two starts (including a grade 2), marking himself out as one of the leading English novice chasers of last season. Beakstown probably had his ideal conditions this day and he acquitted himself well in good races throughout the entirety of last season.
Return Ticket’s hurdle form was way below that of his rivals, which was reflected in his SP of 16/1. Yet, he travelled with great zest throughout and traded as low as 2/1 in-running. He was still bang there at 2 out, but he faded on the approach to the last. The extended 2m3f trip was probably too far for this keen traveller and it’s also worth considering that Ruth Jefferson’s yard (with whom Return Ticket was previously with) were slow to start last season; throughout September and October, Ruth’s runners had a record of: 5PP37408667. None of her runners got closer than 13 lengths to the winner. As such, there are plenty of reasons to mark Return Ticket’s chase debut up.
He was subsequently outclassed in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown (albeit he wasn’t disgraced); it’s best not to judge him on that run.
His 3rd start over fences came in a handicap at Catterick, where he finished a good 2nd behind the impressive Schiehallion Munro. The winner put in an imperious display of jumping which Return Ticket could not match. I’d encourage anyone to watch this race and pay particular attention to the four fences down the back; the winner pinged every fence while Return Ticket made a small error at each obstacle. Those fences come up quickly so any error is amplified and despite trading at 1.38 on the turn for home, Return Ticket was no match for the ruthlessly efficient jumping and strong finishing effort of the winner. Again, I believe the 2m3f trip was too far from him at this stage but he still ran a solid race behind a very progressive rival.
His 4th and final start of the 2019/20 season came on the Saturday after Cheltenham in a Novice Handicap Chase at Kempton. Back down to 2 miles, once he again he travelled with menace, trading at a low of 1.49 (SP 4/1) as he loomed up on the eventual winner (On The Slopes) on the turn for home. He managed to nose his way to the front on the approach to the second from home but he made a glaring mistake while On The Slopes put in a picture perfect jump to seize the initiative. Return Ticket rallied to close the gap but another error at the last sealed his fate as On The Slopes grinded out a 3-length victory. The pair pulled 6 lengths clear of the rest and On The Slopes is a very good horse; after finishing 3rd behind subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners, Imperial Aura and Simply The Betts, he bolted up over 2m2f at Kempton before beating Return Ticket. As such, I believe that is a very solid piece of form.
With an improvement in his jumping (which is more than possible given that he’s only had 4 starts over fences), I am sure that Return Ticket can win a handicap off his current mark of 132. Ruth Jefferson has noted previously that he’s better suited to flat tracks and he has a preference for good ground. 2 miles looks to be his optimum trip for now.
He’s recently been switched to Rebecca Menzies yard; she tends to do very well with new recruits which further boosts the appeal of this lightly raced chaser.
20. UNAI
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Ben Pauling endured a difficult start to the 2019/20 season. From the beginning of October until the 7th November, 20 runners resulted in just one win and one place. This led to the yard refraining from having runners until the 3rd December; a faulty batch of hay, which lacked sufficient potassium, was alleged to be the cause of this poor form.
In the two weeks following their first runner, the yard continued to suffer; one win and one place from 21 runners was not the upturn the stable had hoped for. Their record from 3rd December – 17th December was: 4P3P0U08706P941FFPP4P
Unai was one of those to run in early December, finishing 4th in a novice hurdle at Musselburgh. In truth, he never looked comfortable that day; his jumping was erratic and Daryl Jacob had to issue reminders at an early stage of the race. It was only his latent ability that kept him in touch with the leading group.
Next seen out at Doncaster, he finished well beaten in 7th but there were some promising signs; his jumping was slicker and he did show up well for a long time. Ultimately, the heavy ground counted against the son of Court Cave (whose progeny tend to prefer a sound surface) as he faded on the run to the last.
He concluded his season with a reasonable 3rd at Market Rasen on his first attempt at 2m4f, finishing 6 lengths behind the 119 rated Archie Brown. With that, the handicapper awarded him a mark of 110 – steep enough on the bare face of what he’s achieved so far over hurdles.
However, it’s important to consider the poor form of the stable and the impact that had on Unai’s performances. On the 1st day of the jumps season at Southwell, Tel’Art demonstrated that it’s worth following Ben Pauling runners that failed to run up to expectations during their difficult spell last season.
Like Tel’Art, Unai had shown a great deal of promise in his bumper. He finished a solid 3rd in a Warwick bumper (only 3.5 lengths) with some useful opposition filling the surrounding places; well-regarded and dual novice hurdle winner, OvertheTop, was the winner, with Induno (dual novice hurdle winner) finishing 2nd. Behind Unai was The Swagman (4th, novice hurdle winner) and Temple High (5th, promising mare).
Described as a “striking individual” by his trainer, Unai is only a 5yo and surely has more to offer. He’ll be of interest in handicaps on good ground.
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